just noticed Newsweek poll with Bush in free fall

post convention. 11 points has evaporated like WMD. Now back to 5 figured one way or 6 the other. Expect it to drop another 2-3 next week and get in line with Zogby, Rasmussen, etc.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5971162/site/newsweek/

However, I don't see any link to the methodology. How do I get tha?. Google?

Thanks for posting something positive!!!:yourock: Seriously.

AJK

..that the huge lead reported by the newsweek and time polls was largely abberant, and not an accurate picture at that point.

while i'm not discounting any news that bush may have slipped a few points (which would be welcome), perhaps that shouldn't be judged against the illusory 10+/11+ lead which had been reported (by time and newsweek).

if you go to the web site of whatever polling company you're interested in, a good polling company should display its methodology there.

cheers :)

There was a post on DU a few days ago that mentioned this. I'm too lazy to search for it right now, so I'll just summarize.

The post-convention Time and Newsweek polls were based on the same data as another poll (Rasmussen I think) that had Bush's lead at 3-5%. Those publishing the polls take the data and "weigh" it with various factors to determine a result. Weigh it differently, get a different result.

I won't even let myself get started on "margin of error."

Bush gets favorable press for having an illusory 10 point lead, so it's only fair that Bush should suffer the consequences of losing that lead in a popularity free fall.

They still oversamples Republicans!

Silly, silly Newsweek! What ever are we going to do with you?! :)

like it's October 29th and the situation is totally hopeless. I gave up on Kerry in December and he and his team worked Iowa hard and roared back big. I'll never give up on him again. Between now and November and when a crisis has him way down in the polls. I'll be loyal to the end. I was that way with Clinton. Unfortunately, the GOP seems to be as(but blindly) fanatical with Bush.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5963900/site/newsweek/

Kerry winning that one!
Did we do that already? I just got on and I don't know nothin'!

On edit:
two-thirds of all voters see him as a strong leader (62 percent), forthright (66 percent) and personally likeable (67 percent).

Oh really? They have to be talking only to Repukes. There is no way a representative number of people polled find him likeable and approve of him in those numbers, unless they are skewed.

CNN analyzed today?

Yes, your right. Not Zogby, Rasmussen, Fox or Newsweek. It was Time.

I think??? (Brain fuzzy from EC math)

http://www.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/stories/10/27/cnnti...

CNN/Time poll: Bush holds edge
From Keating Holland/CNN

October 27, 2000
Web posted at: 8:36 p.m. EDT (0036 GMT)

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Republican presidential nominee George W. Bush holds a 49-to-43 percent edge over Democratic rival Al Gore in the latest CNN/Time poll, conducted Wednesday and Thursday.

The poll of 2,060 adult Americans, including 1,076 likely voters, has a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points and is thus in essential agreement with a CNN/USA Today/Gallup tracking poll also released Friday. That poll gives Bush a 52 percent-39 percent edge over Gore. More important, both polls show the same snapshot of the current state of the presidential campaign: a solid advantage for Bush.
--------

and we all know how that story ended

As Dean said, we have the power. We must use it and be unstoppable.

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Eyes on the Prize, Guys!

B*sh's approval rating, from the time he took office, shows a steady decline punctuated by periodic bumps upward from one event or another, followed swiftly by continued decline again. But essentially, his ratings decline over time. Period.

His periodic bumps don't go as high as previous bumps. His new lows go lower than previous lows. The trend is very clear. The more people see of him and the more chances he has to screw up, the more they dislike his performance.

On the other hand, Kerry surprises. His ratings trend upward, punctuated by downward events (smears). But his highs get higher over time, and this appears to be true throughout his carrer.

Seems to me that the more exposure and the more time we have, the more likely that Kerry will pull ahead and remain there.

The question is, will there be a bump for B*sh just before election that gets him over the electoral hump at the right time.

the last 24 hours. I've read and viewed so much dirt on Bushco and their unraveling in this timeframe, while also reading and seeing some positive stuff coming from the Kerry camp...

I BE FEELIN' GOOD!!

HOPE IS ON THE WAY!!