"Any model which correctly calculates the True vote is doomed to fail in a rigged election."
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x7159446An excellent breakdown of election night 2004 issues is presented above (see "Fixing the polls: Party ID, Voted in 2000, RV vs. LV"). Assess the integrity of the election, before you condemn any analyst for "getting it wrong". Consider, too, election models whose "reliability ratings" fail to even consider election fraud as a factor in their analyses. Absurd; such models could be esteeming the "successful" predictors of fraudulent election outcomes. See also John Zogby's
Final prediction on Election 2004 that was never presented by
PollingReport.com.
The success of Obama's campaign --
new registrations and GOTV effort (a record
electorate, including 2 million newly-registered Democrats and 344,000
de-registered Republicans just in 28 states that track such data) -- overwhelmed both the DLC Clinton machine
and Rove's "Math". And the magnitude of the
uncounted vote in 2008 is still to be learned.