Would Obama have won Arizona if it weren't McCain's home state?

liberalpragmatist

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Tue Dec-30-08 01:02 AM
Original message

Would Obama have won Arizona if it weren't McCain's home state?

Would Obama have won Arizona if it weren't McCain's home state or, more realistically, if the Republican nominee had been, say, Romney?

Arizona is more Republican than Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado, but it also is subject to many of the same demographic trends. In 2004, it gave Bush 55% (compared to 51% nationally), making it R+4. Had it not been McCain's home state, it would have been 50-49 against Obama, but that isn't taking into account demographic trends, and the mobilization Obama's ground game would likely have run. Looks like it could have been a narrow Obama win.

What do Arizona DU'ers think?

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silverojo

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Tue Dec-30-08 01:08 AM
Response to Original message

1. I lived in AZ until recently

I think it would've stayed red, even without McCain. Too many freakin' rich people there. :mad:

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dbackjon

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Tue Dec-30-08 01:08 AM
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2. He would have had a chance

But since the loony right had mobilized their forces to vote for bigotry in Arizona Prop 102, while the Arizona Democratic Party surrendered on the issue and did SHIT to combat it, Obama would have lost Arizona regardless.

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tblue

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Tue Dec-30-08 01:19 AM
Response to Original message

3. I believe Obama did win AZ. I heard Greg Palast on the radio

saying Obama actually won Montana and, with good likelihood, Arizona. We were robbed -- again -- of somewhere between 8 million and 11 million votes, including the votes of people who were unjustifiably purged. It was a landslide of huge proportions, and we should still get after election reform. It shouldn't take a landslide when a majority is all that's needed to win.

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