Five Senate Races we need to focus on for 2010 (and a 6th if the GOP helps us out some)

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Right now there are five very winnable states that currently are owned by GOP although one of them (FL) is being vacated by the end of the term. I know the polls are early and this crazy world my change between now and 2010 but there are 5 very viable races for democrats to pickup even more senators and a 6th seat if the GOP & RSCC keep their promise to run candidates in the primaries against Republicans that supported the Stimulus bill.

1.) Alaska: Lisa Murkowski should have been a goner in 2004 but it wasn't a good year for democrats and senate races. She still has the black cloud over her head of being the daughter of the most corrupt Alaskan family, one that even Sarah Palin says "At least I'm not as bad as them". With Ted Stevens being unseated in 2008 perhaps we're finding that democrats can win Alaska. Will Tony Knowles take another chance and run against Murkowski or a fresh face step up to the plate.

2.) South Dakota: This was the revenge race of 2004 with the Republicans wanting to bring down Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle. Ok you had your fun but Thune has hardly impressed South Dakotans. And if lone State Representative Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, a popular democrat in SD, runs against Thune we could get revenge against the republicans for their revenge.

3.) Louisiana: David Vitter now has 2 strikes against him - he cheated on his wife with prostitutes and now he berated an airline employee for closing the the security gate even though it was Vitter's fault for being 20 minutes late for his flight. If Vitter manages to win his primary race he could be an easy target for a democratic pick-off.

4.) Kentucky: Jim Bunning barely won this race in 2004 and polls aren't looking good that he'll win this one, especially since Bunning wont' release his recent internal polling which probably showed that he doesn't have a chance to win this one. Bunning has threatened the RNC with resigning this seat if the RNC runs an opponent in the primaries. Such a move would allow the KY democratic governor to place a democrat in the senate seat and giving that democrat an edge in the 2010 election.

5.) Florida: Mel Martinez is retiring after one term which leaves Florida wide open for the pickings. Recent statewide elections including the 2008 presidential elections have been favoring democrats. If FL can find the right candidate we could win the state again.

6.) Pennsylvania - but only if the GOP keep their promise to run primary candidates against Republican senators who voted for the Stimulus. Three republicans voted for the plan - the 2 gals from Maine and Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania. There is no senate race in Maine in 2010 which means that Arlen might be challenged in the primaries as payback for his "YES" vote for the Stimulus bill. This concept has Pennsylvanian Democrats dancing in the streets because they know that Arlen Specter in the general election is difficult to beat because he's a Philly native that tends to keep much of the moderate votes that conservatives like Rick Santorum or Lynn Swann would lose. But if Specter runs against a conservative, cut from the cloth of Rick Santorum, in the primaries he'll have a tough time since Philadelphia & Pittsburgh areas have little impact on Republican primaries.

That could shape up to be a tough one to hold.

No other Republican in CT is popular enough to win statewide.

And I suspect Rell would rather run for re-election as governor in 2010.

n/t

Polls showed McCain beating Obama by a much larger margin, and look how that turned out.

I see you're not from Connecticut.

You dismiss them at your own risk. Dodd's seat is definitely something to be taken very seriously.

Dodd could also decide not to run again, which would open the door for a half dozen challengers on the Democratic side who don't have his high negatives.

The assumption is that Beau Biden will run for US Senate to takeover his dad's seat. A poll was run pitting Biden Jr. against our lone US Rep, Republican Mike Castle (who is very moderate).

Thing is, Castle has not expressed any interest in running. And Castle wins big in Delaware because for years the democrat bigwigs of the state refused to campaign against him (he's like this beloved grandfather). So Castle has basically spent the last 6 elections running against no-name democrats who received no support from the state party.

Thing is, closer to the election, if it is Castle vs. Biden Jr (actually he's the III), you'll see the democrats campaigning big time in the state against Castle. PLUS, having your father the VP of Barack Obama - well I'm sure we'll see Obama make a few stops in the northern part of the state where the bulk of the voters live.

I hope he runs! How cool would that be?

Only reason Beau wasn't picked was because he is still in Iraq

that's reason enough for him to run against Beau Biden, the Bidens are very popular in Delaware.

Corker?

He's an embarrassment!

I know it's a long-shot, but we have to start rebuilding the Dem Party in Tennessee. It's next to both Virginia and North Carolina and has similar people with researchers at ORNL and BWXT. We're not hopeless!

He's not up for re-election until then.

there's also New Hampshire, Ohio and Kansas. Kansas doesn't seem likely, particularly with Sebelius now in the Obama administration rather than in the governor's seat, but I'd say NH and OH are even more likely to flip than many of the states listed in the oP.

:D

especially with Alex Sink going for the gov's race, which seems much harder to win.

but come closer to the elections more could be apparent

Unknown vs. Unknown isn't a good measure here.

The GOP incumbent Kit Bond is retiring, and the popular Democratic Secretary of State, Robin Carnahan (yeah, I know, dynasties, but she's competent) is not likely to face serious primary opposition as it stands now. On the GOP side, though, there's a fight brewing between former Rep. Roy Blunt and former State Treasuer Sarah Steelman (see WAPO story: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/03/08/AR2009030801973.html).

But it'd certainly be close. McCaskill's endorsement would be a huge boost.

He's retiring, so his is an open seat. My mother, who lives in MO, says Carnahan is VERY popular, and would likely beat hell out of almost any Rethug who'd run against her. As of now, MO looks to go all blue in the Senate in 2010.