Handicapping 2010 Senate Race. (5 solid pickup opportunities)

GOP TOSS UP (5)

FL (Martinez - Retiring)

MO (Bond - Retiring)

NH (Gregg -retiring)

OH (Voinovich-Retiring)

KY Bunning (potentially retiring)

DEMS AT RISK (2)

Dodd (CT)*

Burris (IL)**


GOP AT RISK (2)

Vitter (LA)
McCain (AZ) if he continues to look increasingly addled

*At the moment, but people's memories are short.
** If he runs, he could lose, If another Dem runs, they would be prohibitive.

PA is a microcosm of the challenges faced in the other five GOP toss-ups. What's the cost of winning a GOP primary when the issues of ideological purity vs, move to the center roil the GOP base and alienate moderates. Dems perceived as "reasonable" by swing voters will have a field day in this environment.

Names... Gives us names.

in the Illinois primary. It is anyone's guess what is going to happen here but I don't think there is any question that Obama will have to spend some time in Illinois if the Democrats are going to hold his old seat.

Did not think she would have enough name recognition outside Chicago. But I suppose a first term Secretary of Treasury isn't going to have much name recognition either.

And at this point Burris' recognition is what's killing him!

I don't see FL as a pickup if Crist runs.
I think it will be tough for the dems to pick up MO.
I do think NH, OH and KY are potential pick ups.
I think it's possible that the repukes could pick up CT, but doubt they can pick up IL.
I'm unconvinced that a repuke seat is at risk in LA. I think NH is far more likely a dem pick up.

Carnahan is a very strong candidate in MO particularly for an open Seat

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/03/gop-pollster-dem-leads-for-missouri-senate-race.php">Even from a GOP pollster:

Hell, here in Springfield, people are pissed off at the job Blunt has done, so thats really saying something.

After supporting Obama on the stimulus to the extent of introducing him at a rally, he just might get "spectored" in the primary.

The Burris seat, I think, will stay blue, but with another Democrat and not with Burris. I don't think he's going to survive a primary challenge by several worthy opponents.

A New Hampshire win would cement recent gains there and in New England generally.

Carnahan looks convincing in Missouri.

The Republican candidates that will be selected will be determined by the amount of money that the extreme right wingers will donate. They will determine the Party's candidates. This will drive the Party yet further into being representative of a shrinking minority of ideological hardliners. This will alienate the moderates in their party, if any actually exist, and most especially the Independents'vote which is becoming the most crucial factor in any campaign. I can't help from seeing their demise as a major party. They are on the wrong side of ever issue ranging from freedom of choice and homophobia to the tacit endorsement of racism which began with Reagan to attract the Southern vote. They embraced an evil concept and won that battle, but are now losing the war.

Blagojevich is not going to bring the party down the way Ryan brought down the Republican party here. Largely because Blagojevich is one among only a few Democrats caught up in a scandal that did not kill anyone. While Ryan headed up a very large number of Republicans caught in their scandals which included the deaths of a van full of children.

But this seat is so tied to Blagojevich now that he could lose us this one if the Republicans find a good candidate.

That is a pretty big "if" considering their most prominent candidates lately have been - a wife-beating pervert - a could-you-be-more-obvious, token African-American - a shrill, mean-spirited housewife - and the head of the Illinois Minutemen.

R's who switched to D.

So unless Toomey pulls out Ridge is an nonstarter.

Jim DeMint (R-Mainlining Kool-Aid) was on CNN yesterday extolling his virtues.

will more than likely go to help Toomey.

Many of the disaffected Rs are Catholics. They might be motivated to vote for a moderate but pro-life Republican over a conservative Democrat but a moderate Republican is unlikely to make it past Toomey. Casey is the kind of D they are really attracted to--liberal on social justice issues, pro-labor, pro-life and fiscally conservative. More and more are switching their registrations from R to D daily. The the tide of changeing registrations has not quit. They may be blue dogs but they are Ds and likely to remain so.

By Jan of 2010 I should have a good six to twelve months to volunteer for a senate race, and I'm trying to decide if I should commit to one, of give some time to a few important ones.

Anyone know the Dem likely to run for Bonds seat?

I've read some stuff as well. I have some friends -that I haven't spoken to in too long- from the primaries in Mo, I should get in touch with them.

Bank run Burr is going down.

FL-Crist runs he wins.The upside Is this could elect a Democratic Governor.Also Crist would vote with Obama on some things like the
Maine Senators.

MO-Robin Carnahan will beat Roy Blunt

NH-The Democratic nominee will win

OH-We have a shot at pickup.

KY-Bunning runs we win.He doesn't a tossup.Survey USA has new poll will Obama over 50 percent approval here.So being antiObama will
not gurantee a win.

CT-Dodd Is the most vulenable Incumbent on our side.

IL-Burris will lose the primary If he runs.Whoever beats Burris or wins the primary without Burris wins In November.

LA-Vitter win win.

AZ-If he survives the primary he wins.

PA-Spector will win as Dem.If tom Ridge runs expect to hear reminder he was on Bush's Shortlist for VP and was Bush's Homeland
Security security.Obama,Biden,and Rendell will point out while he may be Prochoice he vote be another no Vote on Obama's agneda.