NC-Sen: Burr Under 50 Against All Comers

Public Policy Polling (PDF) (5/19-21, "North Carolina voters," Shuler trendlines from January). I've put each of the Dem candidates' favorables in brackets.

Elizabeth Edwards (D): 35
Richard Burr (R-inc): 46
Walter Dalton (D): 29 <24-29>
Richard Burr (R-inc): 48

Dan Blue (D): 33 <24-31>
Richard Burr (R-inc): 44

Richard Moore (D): 34 <36-25>
Richard Burr (R-inc): 47

Bob Etheridge (D): 31 <31-27>
Richard Burr (R-inc): 47

Heath Shuler (D): 28 (28) <25-25>
Richard Burr (R-inc): 44 (39)

Cal Cunningham (D): 34 <46-16> ‡
Richard Burr (R-inc): 42
(MoE: ±3.5%)

‡ Cal Cunningham is a one-term state Senator & Iraq veteran (more here). PPP tested him using a positive two-sentence bio as a lead-in, to compensate for his otherwise low name rec - hence the high favorables. A February poll without the bio showed Cunningham with a 10-23 approval rating (sort of odd, huh?), but still holding Burr to a 46-27 margin.

Here's how Tom Jensen of PPP sums up the situation:


Pulling together all the information we have, here's the state of the race: when Roy Cooper decided not to run Democrats lost the only candidate who would have made this an instant tossup. But Richard Burr is still in a vulnerable position pretty comparable to where Elizabeth Dole found herself at this time two years ago. But whoever the Democratic standard bearer ends up being will have to be molded into a formidable candidate, as Hagan was, rather than just inherently starting out as one.
Now Democrats are going to have to make a choice - do they get a Shuler or McIntyre who have big bank accounts and a good position from which to raise more or do they go more towards a Cunningham who might need more help raising money but can run as an outsider in an election cycle where not having any Washington taint could be a very good thing? It will be interesting to see how it all plays out.

That sounds about right to me.


http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/5012/ncsen-burr-under-50-against-all-comers

Yet I have a sneaking suspicion he will be the nominee.

Given that North Carolina voted for Obama in the presidential election I think Shuler is to the right of where North Carolina is.

OK, I exaggerate but having heard that the Republicans are looking to curry favor with moderates (like Crist, and their attempt to get Ridge), you gotta wonder if we should be running a guy who's made such a point of thumbing his nose at the Democratic leaders in Congress.

As for NC-Sen, I'm disappointed that both Roy Cooper and Grier Martin have ruled themselves out. However, whoever gets the nomination, I think we have a good shot here. Depends how much the Republicans want to defend the seats they already have, and how much they wanna focus on the open seats IMO...

That seems to be something that NC voters like in candidate. Not sure that this explains Jesse Helms, however.