Significant increase in Kerry EV count in polls:

Rasmmussen who had Kerry 50 points behind Bush in electoral vote counts has Kerry moving up to 9 electoral votes behind Bush. Rasmmussen had Kerry at 175 EV on September 6th, with Bush at 213. Bush has not increase in electoral votes since that day still having 213 elecrotal votes according to Rasmussen, but Kerry has moved from 175 EV to 204 EV in two weeks.

Electoral College Projections
Based Upon Most Recent Rasmussen Reports Survey Data and Election 2000 Results

Electoral College

2004 Projected

Bush 213
Kerry 204
Toss up 121
Total 538
RasmussenReports.com


September 21, 2004--The latest Rasmussen Reports Electoral College projection shows George W. Bush with 213 Electoral Votes and John Kerry with 204. There are ten states with 121 Electoral Votes in the Toss-Up category.


http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Electoral%20College%20Projection.htm



Similar increases for Kerry have occured at Electoral Vote .com where Bush has fallen in electoral votes and Kerry has moved up from a low two weeks ago.

Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 239 Bush 256

News from the Votemaster
Lots of polls today, as promised yesterday. Seventeen in all. Zogby has released polls in 16 battleground states and Survey USA has a very surprising one in Maryland, showing Bush and Kerry tied at 48% each. Up until now Maryland has been strongly Democratic. It remains to be seen if this result is confirmed by other pollsters.

Of the 16 battleground states, Zogby has Kerry ahead in 11 and Bush ahead in 5. Since I round the numbers to integers, my result is 9 states for Kerry, 5 states for Bush, with Florida, and Arkansas tied, even though Kerry is fractionally ahead in both. The net effect is that Kerry has closed the gap in the electoral college from a Bush lead of 116 yesterday to only 17 today, a net gain of 99 votes in the electoral college.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Kerrys new focus has had a very sudden effect on the polls, in particular in the electoral cooege polls where Kerry is showing steady momentum. If it keeps up, Kerry will pass Bush again within a few weeks and move into the kind of leads he had in July.

Bush CHeney HAVE to win both or they go home. (or to jail).

Just go to jail and think real hard about what you have cost this nation... cowboy moran. Kerry is hitting them right where they need to be hit and the people are getting it... it is what they have been waiting to hear from someone... a welcome sound to be sure... something they knew in their hearts... but just needed someone higher up to voice the words for them......

Has Kerry ahead in Florida, with the same kind of small lead that Gore would have had it it were not for the "bad ballots"

We're turning this around.

david

That's a Dem state.

and I mean bad as in incompetent.
Kerry has made a huge play for the suburban vote the past 2 days.
People get what he's saying, mainly because people themselves have been saying it.

Has Bush and Kerry even in New Jersey:

Polling Results

September 21, 2004 - Terrorism Fear Lifts Bush To Dead Heat In New Jersey, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Say Iraq War Is Wrong And Economy Is Bad

President George W. Bush and Democratic challenger John Kerry are locked in a 48 - 48 percent tie among New Jersey likely voters, including undecided voters leaning toward a candidate, with 2 percent for independent candidate Ralph Nader, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.


Among registered voters, Sen. Kerry is ahead 47 - 43 percent. This compares to a 49 - 39 percent Kerry lead among registered voters, with 4 percent for Nader, in an August 25 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x11376.xml?ReleaseID=402


This polls is 4 days more recent that the SUSA poll that had Bush ahead of Kerry inNew Jersey.

Among Likely voters Kerry and Bush are both at 48 percent, Among Registered Voters Kerry is 4 points ahead of Bush.

The SUSA polls is anothef one of the polls done for the media (ABC television) and is among the polls that Zogby, Rasmsussen, and Media Matters has indicated are skewed in favor of Bush by polling larger numbers of Republicans.

Zogby, checked the methodology of the Gallop Polls and determined that all of the polls that Gallop was doing were polling more Republicans than Democrats. Then Rasmussen examinined Gallop, and the polls done for CBS, CNN, FOX ABC and NBC, and discovered the same disccrepancies in these polls, showing that all of the polls done for these media outlets owned by large coropration all polled more Republicans than Democrats, resulting in polls that showed Bush ahead.

Finally Media Matters examined all of the polls done by television, newspapers, magazines, and cable outlets and found that all of the polls that were done by polling companines FOR the media were skewed in favor of Bush, and that only the polls done by independent pollsters and not done for media clients actually had a fairer and closer balance of the number of people polled by party affiliation.

Gallop oversampled do much that if you looked at the umberd of proplr polled, they dolled something like 340 Democrats but polles almost 400 Republicans, which is a singificanly larger amount of Republicans most of who obviously are going to say they will vote for Bush and since they make up a greater numer of the total number of people being polled, the poll will show agreater percentage of people claiming tthey want Bush.

The CBS poll was almost as bad, but the CBS polls actually polled more
Republicans and even more independents than Democrats.

Polls that poll nearly equal numbers of Democrts as Republicans show Bush and Kerry neck and neck or Kerry slighly ahead of Bush in many of the state polls.


Right now the only polls I would trust are Zogby, ARG trust them the most) Harris (as long as they are not polling for the media) and to some degree Rasmussen. Rasmussen tends to the conservative ffrom time to time, but at least they do not poll for places that let them know the results they expect ahead of Time. Gallop's CEO is a major contributor to the Bush campaign, and most of the media outlets that do pols are owned by major corporations who are supporting Bush, and are making money in Iraq.

Evan many of the SUSA polls done at in states are all being done for local media affiliates and these polls are also polls where more Republicans are being polled than Democrats, The latest poll in Maryland which has Kerry and Bush running equal polled many more Republicans than Democrats (all of the polls before this polls showed kerry with 20-25 point leads over Bush in Maryland, now these polls are being used to indicate a basically false tightening up of the race, all of the polls done with equal numbers of Democrats and Republicans in all of these state still have Kerry leading)

In fact everytime and indepenedent pollster does polls finding Kerry in the lead, these media pollsters do a polls oversampling REpublicans in order to a show a different result. Most of the time these media outlets are actually going outside of their normal polling schedues in order to get another poll that shows Bush ahead or catching up to Kerry in state where he leads.

For example, the ARG poll done a week ago showd Kerry at 52 percent Bush at 43 percent in Maryland. ARG is an independent pollster.

AS soon as this happens, SUSA is hired by a media affiliate in Maryland to do a poll, and this poll has more Republicans being polled than Democrats. The poll that they had SUSA do shows BUsh and Kerry equal in Maryland right now. But the methodoliogy was dedigned to do this.

They can only go so far doing this. They have to keep the numbers of Republicans within the same century as Democrats. So they will always poll 300 and something Democrats, and 300 and something Republicans. But the Demoocras will fall within the low 300's and the Repulicans will be polled in the high 300s in order to mak it less obvious to those looking at the information

It would be much more obvious if the number of Republicans polled was in the Lower 400's and the Number of Democrats polled was in the high 200's the average reader would immediately find the poll suspect.