Peter Hart "Don't get fooled by the numbers alone because there is something that is stronger there"

What Do Poll Numbers Really Mean for Obama?


President Obama steps off Marine One as he arrives on the South Lawn at the White House in Washington, July 29, 2009.(Jim Young/Reuters)

By Dan Balz

There are several new polls out over the last 24 hours that show more problems for President Obama. The trend lines are consistent: declining support for his health care plan, rising worries about the deficit and slippage in his approval ratings. But what if the polls are wrong?
Not wrong in the sense that they have incorrectly charted a downward slope for the president after six months in office, but wrong in the sense that they don't entirely capture the dynamic of this moment in the Obama presidency.

I raise that question after spending Wednesday night in Towson, Md., observing a focus group conducted by pollster Peter Hart for the Annenberg Public Policy Center at the University of Pennsylvania.
Hart assembled 12 independent voters -- seven who supported Obama last November, four who backed John McCain and one who had voted for Ralph Nader. The two-hour session was eye-opening for Hart and a group of journalists.

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The most arresting moment came when Hart asked everyone to recall how they felt on election night when they knew Obama had been elected president. It was as if the room was transported back to Chicago's Grant Park for the celebration of Obama's victory.

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But Obama has made a powerful, personal connection with these voters. They are not tired of him nor have they given up on his leadership. That was very clear at the end of the two-hour discussion.
Given all the country's problems and the difficulties Obama has encountered, the group's closing comments were almost as striking as the recollections of election night. They were almost universally hopeful that Obama can and will succeed.

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Obama at six months has hit a difficult patch and no one can be certain about the outcome. But if these dozen independent voters are any guide, he has created a strong bond with the public and a fair amount of good will as he battles for his agenda.
Hart had spent the day digesting the results of an NBC News-Wall Street Journal poll that showed warning signs for the president. But as Hart put it when the session in Towson ended, "Don't get fooled by the numbers alone because there is something that is stronger there -- and that surprised me and I thought that was important."

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