I know how health care reconciliation is likely to work out in the Senate.

People keep mentioning the Byrd rule, and how things unrelated to budgeting and spending will be mercilessly axed from any bill under reconciliation rules. They're not thinking far enough ahead. All we have to do is hold GOP porkbarrel and pet spending projects hostage!

What we would actually see under a reconciliation bill is two health care bills: one under reconciliation, one not.

In the reconciliation health care bill, we thrown in all the spending, all the cuts, all the taxes, all the stuff we can reasonably throw in the bill and have it pass under reconciliation bills.

Everything else goes in the non-reconciliation bill.

In the reconciliation bill, we also throw in a huge number of merciless budget cuts to programs in red states and districts, mostly Republican porkbarrel porgrams, but anything we can use to put GOP balls in a vice. It's easy to justify - it's budget cuts required to ensure the health care program does not increase the deficit, and complies with reconciliation rules.

Shove the bill through under reconciliation, with a straight party-line vote, and watch the Rethugs scream and howl.

Next, put the non-reconciliation bill on the table. At this point, we have 'em by the short & curlies. Tell the Rethugs that we'll put some of their pork back in the non-reconciliation bill, and only that bill, if they vote for it, and allow things like a strong public option and strong health care subsidies. Emphasize that their pork will go in no other bill. It goes in the non-reconciliation health care bill, or it never sees the light of day again. And we can enforce that with our own filibusters - we only need 40 reliable Democrats to keep their pork hostage.

Watch the GOP piss and moan and howl and wail some more, then in a few days, watch them fold like cheap lawn chairs and give us 60 votes.

Voila, health care reform!

Of course, that's assuming it comes to reconciliation. We only need threaten to play these sorts of games, and watch as the GOP magically becomes more willing to work constructively... :evilgrin:

...replace Spineless Harry with you. :)

Beautiful thing to watch Frist twist:

http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/10524

I will kick it into Monday for the cuberat's edification.

But I suspect Obama's gonna be leaning hard on Reid and demanding he get his shit together, and probably insisting he play some hardball...

Best of Luck!