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Each president faces different factors.
For example: Bill Clinton started out with low poll number due to the fight over gays in the military and the BTU tax. Then his budget passed and his numbers quickly recovered. In other words, his numbers in late August were a lot better then in early August. In September, after the Oslo peace process culminated, they went up even further. Finally, by the end of 1993, beginning of 1994 his poll numbers were looking pretty strong. Then came Harry and Louise. And as the health care debate went south during 94, so to did his poll numbers. But the best question to ask is: where did his poll numbers stand after a year in office?
Similarly, the question to ask for Obama is: where will his poll numbers stand on January 20, 2010? I suspect that after health care reform passes--and something will pass--he'll be in pretty good shape. I also think it will help when he passes the first piece of legislation dealing with global warming, while the Republicans scream like idiots: "cap and tax!" So I'm pretty confident that after a year in office he'll have strong job numbers.
However, the second year gets tricky. Clinton's numbers dropped like a stone in his second year when Harry and Louise hit the airwaves. Reagan's numbers dropped precipitously with the 82 recession--which is eerily familiar to this one. If unemployment tops 10% by January 2010 and then stays there for awhile then that could lower his numbers in his second year. But then, of course, they could always recover the following year like they did for Clinton and Reagan.
Meanwhile, Bush Sr. had incredible number in mid-91 following the Persian Gulf War, and looked unbeatable. By the Summer of 1992 Clinton was leading him by 20 points (without Perot in the race). Bush Jr. had strong poll numbers for 2 years, from late 2001 to late 2003. Then they dipped in 2004 and he barely won re-election. And it was all downhill from there.
Each president faces different challenges at different points in their presidency. Obama is no different. Over the course of his 4-8 years in office his poll numbers will see ups and downs. Right now they are up. Eventually they will go down. What matters here is that the GOP is trying to create a narrative of a collapsing presidency whose supporters are jumping ship, when nothing like that is happening. I think the Dems in Congress see through this nonsense. They will stick with him on health care and energy, we will get bills passed by November or December, and he will start next year in good shape. Beyond that....who knows?
Steve
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