VA-Sen: Fifth Pollster Shows Big Deeds Gap

Taylor Nelson Sofres for the Washington Post (8/11-14, likely voters, no trendlines):

Creigh Deeds (D): 39
Bob McDonnell (R): 54
Undecided: 7
(MoE: ±_._)

The MoE is blank because the WaPo didn't specify how many out of their 1,002 registered voters qualify for their likely voter screen. It would hardly seem to matter, though - the Washington Post (via a company called TNS) is now the fifth pollster to peg Deeds well behind after his post-primary bounce. The WaPo hasn't tested before, but the other four outfits (R2K, PP, SUSA and Rasmussuen) have all shown sharp declines in the trendlines.

It looks like this isn't shaping up to be our year. And this tidbit from SSPer DCCyclone (whose activism is commendable) doesn't inspire me, either:

Deeds has been invisible in NoVA all this time. I've been door-knocking for Del. Margi Vanderhye's reelection with Deeds piggybacking on it, and beyond such piggybacking there's been no sign of Deeds doing anything. I was in the coordinated campaign office in Tysons on Saturday to pick up my walk list, and the Vanderhye field director was the only human being present in the entire huge, cavernous offices. The Deeds cubicles were dark and abandoned. I hope they were all out door-knocking! But they certainly aren't soliciting volunteers to help!

Sadly, this reminds me all too well of Sean Quinn's regular dispatches about dark or nearly empty McCain HQs around the nation last year. Sigh.

http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/5426/vasen-fifth-pollster-shows-big-deeds-gap

He Is pretty much done for.Democrats need northern Virginia to win and he has done nothing there.
If Republicans win In Viriginia a large part Is the Obama base Is not excitied while Republicans
are motivated to vote.Even If the Economy continues to Improve Deeds Is not exciting Democrats.

Too bad Palin and other right wingers who might encourage Democrats to come out are being keep Out.

and it's not because of Obama fatigue or anything like that, but because states are in trouble and people blame the party in power at these times. Both states have Dem governors and in NJ, especially, the governor is unpopular.

The Associated Press

TRENTON, N.J. - A new poll finds Gov. Jon Corzine gaining a little ground on his Republican challenger with three months to go in the New Jersey governor's race.

The Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pee-ack) University poll out Tuesday has Corzine trailing ex-prosecutor Chris Christie by 9 percentage points, 51-42 percent, among likely voters. A mid-July poll gave Christie a 53-41 percent lead.

Christie's lead shrinks to 6 percentage points when independent candidate Chris Daggett is factored in.

The poll indicates Corzine has shored up his Democratic base, but Christie still leads more than 2-to-1 among voters not affiliated with either party.

more: http://www.philly.com/philly/wires/ap/news/state/new_jersey/20090811_ap_pollcorzinegainsalittleonchristie.html

I'd honestly be shocked if Corzine can pull off a win in this horrible political environment in New Jersey, things are pretty similar here to how they were the last time a nonincumbent republican was elected governor in the state. Pretty much all of Corzine's attacks are exactly the same thing, 'Chris Christie is another corrupt politician, and he has strong ties to Bush', yet it's barely put a dent in his big deficit.

I don't know much about Virginia since I don't live next to it, but I'd honestly be more surprised to see Corzine win then Deeds, just because Deeds doesn't have the baggage of being an incumbent in this terrible economy.

but Deeds looks toast.

Sadly Americans are too stupid to realize that the faltering economy had nothing to do with them, but they tend to blame the party in power, regardless of who's fault it really is. We're not sophisticated enough to know better.

Deeds down by 12.8:

http://www.pollster.com/polls/va/09-va-gov-ge-mvd.php?xml=http://www.pollster.com/flashcharts/content/xml/09VAGovGEMvD.xml&choices=McDonnell,Deeds&phone=&ivr=&internet=&mail=&smoothing=&from_date=&to_date=&min_pct=&max_pct=&grid=&points=1&lines=1&colors=McDonnell-BF0014,Deeds-2247AF

Corzine down by 11.8:

http://www.pollster.com/polls/nj/09-nj-gov-ge-cvc.php?xml=http://www.pollster.com/flashcharts/content/xml/09NJGovGECvC.xml&choices=Christie,Corzine&phone=&ivr=&internet=&mail=&smoothing=&from_date=&to_date=&min_pct=&max_pct=&grid=&points=1&lines=1&colors=Christie-BF0014,Corzine-2247AF,Other-A69A37,Not%20Voting-1B8F3E

NJ polling typically understates Dem support, but I don't think it understates it enough to give Corzine a win here. Still, I never thought Corzine would be in better shape - even if the difference is fairly small -than Deeds.

We may lose both Governorships this year.In NJ It Is a antiCorzine mood while In Virginia It Is more
of a bad campagin by Deeds and lack of excitement by Democrats.Last poll has Obama with 51 Percent
approval In Virginia.

The polls are tighning In New Jersey so If the economy continues to Improve,and voters In NJ who
approve of Obama see how bad Christie Is so there Is a slim chance Corzine might be able to come
back.But,Deeds Is done Inless something really dramaticly happens.Of course If someone like Palin
comes to Campagin for Christie and Mcdonnell that would make some Dems to come out after seeing attacks on Obama.