IL-Sen: Kirk Posts Slim Lead Over Giannoulias in Rasmussen Poll

http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/5429/ilsen-kirk-posts-slim-lead-over-giannoulias-in-rasmussen-poll

Rasmussen Reports (8/11, likely voters):

Alexi Giannoulias (D): 38
Mark Kirk (R): 41
Other: 4
Undecided: 17

Cheryle Jackson (D): 30
Mark Kirk (R): 47
Other: 6
Undecided: 17
(MoE: ±4.5%)

Both Kirk and Giannoulias post reasonably good, but probably inflated, favorability ratings: Kirk's at 55-28 while Giannoulias has a comparable 51-33 rating. Somehow I doubt that either of these dudes are that well-known statewide, but this inflated name rec issue seems to be par for the course at Rasmussen's shop.

Nate Silver over at FiveThirtyEight recently had a very good post about the likely voter models currently employed by many pollsters, and the aggressively selective model used by Rasmussen in particular. In short, Nate views Rasmussen's model as close to a worst-case scenario for Democrats. However, I think we may need to prepare for the possibility that the worst -- or something in its realm -- could come to fruition next year.

the Democrats have a good shot of holding on to this seat. If Obama slips below 50% approval then Kirk will likely win. Kirk fits the model of Republicans who have a history of being elected state-wide in Illinois.

I'm very worried he is going to be my next new senator.