Nate Silver: The Essence of the Health Care Endgame

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/08/essence-of-health-care-endgame.html

The Essence of the Health Care Endgame
by Nate Silver @ 9:47 AM



Probably stating the obvious here. But sometimes the obvious is worth stating. From the latest NBC/WSJ poll:



That's a 17-point gap in support for the Democrats' health care plans when the plan is simply referred to as "Barack Obama's health care plan" versus when a reasonably fair description of the plan is actually provided to the respondents. Whence the source of the discrepancy?



I don't think that health care needs to reach approval as high as 53 percent in order for it to be a good idea for the Democrats to pass the initiative. It's possible that Obama's approval ratings will decline further even if health care reform is passed. But they'd likely decline by more if health care reform fails: like splitting 8's in blackjack, sometimes it's right to accept a small loss if the alternative is a bigger loss.

There's still a chance, though, for the Democrats to work their way out of this damned-if-they-do, damned-if-they-don't scenario. There is at least a possibility for health care reform to gain popularity down the homestretch as the President grabs the bully pulpit and explains, in clear and simple terms to the American public, what the reform bill will and won't do.

Combatting this type of misinformation is not easy -- not when health care reform's opponents have every reason to perpetuate the confusion, not when the President's messaging has frequently missed a beat, and not when the Democrats have yet to agree on a particular proposal and are fighting over a variety of substantive and non-substantive details. But the President has to make every effort to do so. The fate of health care reform probably depends upon it.

that is not there, it looks like he is trying to sell a pig
in a poke.

Until we all accept the fact that all Americans (including especially
Disruptor) are not mad about Health Care, we will get nowhere fast. At points in my earlier life I lived around people who share those sentiments.
People in DC are about as clueless as they come. Starting with Enron
and all those businesses with their corruption had one thing in common
they gave the shaft to workers who lost Retirement, Insurance etc.
The Congress apparently learned nothing--No Republican Oversight
and think of all the stories untill we are bailing out Insurance Co.
Banks Automobile Companies. A lot of these people will say in privacy
what they will never say in Public. They have been practically indoctrinated not to complain for personal needs. I have seen on
TV one of our Blue Dogs during Katrina. No Name No State to save
embarassment whether he deserves it or not. There were a few people
in one of the affected states. A TV Camera was on. One woman (white)
yelled to the Reporter--"Tell Fema or the President we need help down
here. Start sending some trailers." The Congressman steps into
Camera's view but not front and center. In this authoritative tone.
almost cutting the woman off. " WE are ABLEBODIED and can do for ourselves." I cringed . It sounded like a parent admonishing
a child. Code. We are in public and we do not complain, much
less beg. Yes this was a Democratic Congressman.

These people have pent up anger and frustration. The Businesses screwed
up, the people get the shaft and business get the bailout. All the
We cannot afford Health Care is what they hear. The GOP knows all
about channeling the anger. They roil them up and have them transfer
their real anger and frustration against the Government. Add in a
little generation to generation racism (most of these people seem
to older). Other people get benefits you do not. No one has ever
encouraged them to have the confidence to stand up for themselves
and they might just deserve help.

If we are ever going to come together, it will be citizen to citizen.
it is not in Politicians interest to have us come together.

Obama has to understand their is tremendous distrust of Government.
There he must have a written plan, they can see and he can expain.
Have him listen to A.Weiner. Not Weiner's plan but how he boils
things down to the essence. Obama is working with one hand behind
his back with no visible plan.

It might be best with tempers flaring to take a small hit and delay
the date. Have A Plan and do an education of the public. I personally
think people would respect him more for wanting to get it right rather
doing the DLC Dance. Pass anything, just to say you passed something.
I guarantee you the RW Noise Machine will make hay --it is watered
down and does nothing. His party would not let him fail. This will
kind to their spin.

Thanks for listening.






w

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