NJ-Gov: Christie Maintains His Lead in New Polls

Quinnipiac (8/25-30, likely voters, 8/5-9 in parens):

Jon Corzine (D-inc): 37 (40)
Chris Christie (R): 47 (46)
Chris Daggett (I): 9 (7)
(MoE: ±2.4%)

Fairleigh Dickinson (8/24-30, registered voters, 6/22-29 in parens):

Jon Corzine (D-inc): 42 (39)
Chris Christie (R): 47 (45)
(MoE: ±4%)

Fairleigh Dickinson did not include Chris Daggett in their poll, but 1% of respondents volunteered his name. In any event, after seeing Christie suffering a prolonged stretch of bad press followed by a pair of polls showing Corzine inching back, these polls have to be considered as something of a disappointment for Corzine fans.

http://www.pamshouseblend.com/

...Corzine's new ad about the $46,000 loan just started running (yesterday or today) - hopfully that helps. NJ isn't really going to pay attention until after labor day and life goes back to normal.

Lets just hope he is really lucky.

The first is that he will have to get Democrats to see that the hard decisions he made actually reflect our values. I think one place to start is to make sure that everyone knows that his budget with was far lower than the year before ($3 billion less than the previous year's $33 billion budget). http://www.philly.com/inquirer/opinion/20090311_Editorial__Corzine_s_Budget.html

This was done even with every school districts getting at least what they got the year before. In my town the people I know on the school board were very pleasantly surprised by this as they were preparing for worse - and were able to save positions they thought they would have to cut.

Now, with the economy beginning to turn around - some things he did in NJ before the federal government acted and the things Obama did, but it is hard to see things happening in 2 months.

The second is to get people to really look at Christie. The fact that he was a "Bush" AG and talked to Rove is not good for him. One thing I wish I remembered better was the details of his calling for an investigation of Menendez for renting a property he owned to a "non-profit that benefited from his legislation" (Republican spin - it was a Head start program). Remember that Gonzales went after AG's unwilling to go after Democrats running in 2006? Now, I think that entire issue disappeared after the November election. (caveat - I can be totally wrong on this. This is from memory from about 3 years ago. )

Christie's "reform" image - that was always overhyped has been dented - it needs to be further questioned. When he ran for Freeholder, he made a huge issue over - I think - no bid contracts - then when he came in proceeded to vote for many of them.

and supporting Obama and the Democratic Party in NJ and nationwide, supporting progressive causes, he has only himself to blame for WHAT????

Most Democratic Governors in liberal states are having problems with this recession and taxaation/budget problems which are unpopular.

How did Corzine "deserve" to be behind?

There was at least the appearance of a conflict of interest and this is why Corzine can not effectively use Christie's $46,000 undeclared loan.

I think that things might possibly be more equal than indicated. There is a large undecided here considering that it is less than 3 months until the election. (16% and 11%) Now, in the last several elections - Menendez and Corzine and think Lautenberg, nearly all of that went to them. The Corzine race was supposed to be neck and neck and he won by double digits. I think what happened was that as there are far more Democrats in the state, many disheartened by the reported corruption in the state are reluctant to give a candidate. This year, I think that because Corzine has really not been loved (understatement alert) many are reluctant to tell a pollster they are voting for him.

On Quinnippiac, I think that there NJ likely voter model has a problem - as it always significantly overstates the Republicans. This may be because the Democrats have a better GOTV. (I have yet to do any canvasing or phone banking this year, but will after Labor day. I live in Christie's county so it will be interesting to see how things compare to say 2006 Menendez or 2005 Corzine. Christe needs to win BIG here.)

There was the thing involving payments to his former girlfriend; the gov't shutdown, the toll booth hike, and then the car accident (he wasn't wearing a seat belt). He had barely settled into the Governor's Mansion when all these things happened, one after the other.

NJ is actually doing much better than many other states, so Corzine can't be accused of running the state into the ground. But bad first impressions...

I'd say Corzine's staff is probably happy and Christie's staff is sweating.

I think he closes strong and wins the day.

Gee, I wonder why he's having trouble?