Got this e-mail last night from one of our NC Kerry Activists on the latest Voter Registration Drives here. DU Poll Watchers and mathematicians might find these numbers interesting if you could apply it to other areas of the country. New Voters Registering in Record Numbers-Democratic.
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E-MAIL ALERT VRD-GOTV:
> Riding in our car today, my husband mentioned how hard it often is, when bombarded with polls and newscasters painting bleak pictures about Kerry and prospects for a Democrat win in November, to stay positive, so we can continue to work for victory. One might advise avoiding "reality" by not looking at the polls or watching TV -- but the reality is that we know they are wrong.
>
> We know there is going to be a ground swell of progressives and non-traditional voters coming out of the woodwork in November -- the likes of which will astound all the traditional pollsters and mainstream media and show that democracy lives in the USA. We see this ground swell, especially, when we work in minority communities and with young voters.
>
> We see amazingly large numbers of people who care so much that they donate their time and talents, freely, and with great generosity, to helping our "cause". Unprecedented numbers come forward every day to volunteer.
>
> So don't despair. Keep up all the good work. If you need some hard numbers to look at, take a look at the statistics (with analysis below) that Gerry Cohen compiled:
>
> Voter registration for Durham and Orange for the two week period ending 9/17/2004 and the six-week period ending 9/17/2004 (net, new minus cancellations), calculated from: http://www.sboe.state.nc.us/stats/vr_stats_main.asp
> DURHAMDEMREPUNATOTAL
> 2 WEEKS16132915332439
> 66.1%11.9%21.9%
> 6 WEEKS603092023119279
> 65.0%9.9%24.9%
>
> ORANGEDEMREPUNATOTAL
> 2 WEEKS6511954301282
> 50.8%15.2%33.5%
> 6 WEEKS187259212763764
> 49.7%15.7%33.9%
> Voter registration for Wake for the the six-week period ending 9/17/2004 (net, new minus cancellations), calculated from: http://www.sboe.state.nc.us/stats/vr_stats_main.asp
> WakeDEMREPUNATOTAL
> 6 WEEKS3053198620577142
> 42.7%27.8%28.8%
> Durham and Orange are online with instant updates, Wake uploads stats periodically in batches.
> new voter totals would be higher as these totals are net new minus cancellations as former residents register elsewhere
> ===========
> TO GIVE SOME HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE, HERE ARE NET VOTER REGISTRATION STATS FOR WAKE COUNTY FOR THE ENTIRE JANUARY-OCTOBER PERIOD IN 2000 AND 2002, SEE THE CHANGED PARTY REGISTRATION TRENDS
> 2000 January through end of registration in October
> 20,860 TOTAL NEW VOTERS
> D 31.1%
> R 35.7%
> U 32.3%
> 2002 January through end of registration in October
> 14,662 TOTAL NEW VOTERS
> D 22.5%
> R 39.1%
> U 36.8%
> 2004 six week period 8/7 thru 9/17
> 7,142 TOTAL NEW VOTERS
> D 42.7%
> R 27.8%
> U 28.8%
> Also from (name deleted for privacy):
> I went to the Wake County Board of Elections today to apply for absentee ballots for my kids away at college (the mail-in period started yesterday the 13th). They had already received 2200 mail-in applications. In the entire 2000 presidential absentee period in 2000 they got 5968 absentee ballots by mail.
>
> The elections director told me they received 8,000 registration applications last week alone, and since May had gotten 20,000 address changes from Wake County residents who had moved within the county. She said she had NEVER seen this much activity this long before the registration deadline.
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