Media missing the story: "GOP has a great deal to lose" depending on the outcome of health reform

Does Health Care Reform Debate Carry Risks For The GOP, Too?

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The vast majority of commentary, understandably, has focused on the risks Obama and Dems are facing as they seek to overhaul this huge chunk of the American economy. Dems are in charge and will determine what proposal ultimately faces a vote. But what if pundits are missing another story — that the GOP has a great deal to lose, too, depending on the outcome of this war?

The new Washington Post poll has bad news for both parties. It finds that 48% remain opposed to the reform proposal, versus 46% who favor it, and that a big majority wants Dems to craft a bill that will win GOP support. But it also finds…

* That Dems hold an overwhelming 20-point lead on which party is most trusted on major issues, with Obama preferred over Republicans by 12 points on health care.

* That a majority, 53%, agrees that “government reform of the nation’s health care system is necessary to control costs and expand coverage,” underscoring yet again that the public wants government action.

* That a plurality now believes reform won’t prevent people from keeping their own health care, suggesting the public may be it reform as less and less threatening.

* That a big majority, or 62%, believe Republicans have not made a good faith effort to cooperate with Dems on health care.

This isn’t to minimize the political headwind Obama and Dems face right now. But what if a fair amount of the opposition reflects short term anxieties and fear of the legislative unknown? What if a reform bill gets through with virtually no Republican support, and the public decides they like it? How will the GOP’s efforts to block the current proposals look to the public in retrospect?

What if Republican efforts to defeat health care reform really are rooted in the fear — famously articulated in Bill Kristol’s 1993 memo, and reiterated since — that the realization of reform could banish the GOP to the minority for a generation, by cementing the Dems as the party that’s resurrected the notion that government can improve the lives of the middle class? Just thought I’d throw this possibility out there.