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When you see Obama's approval ratings polls, which one (pollster) do you think is best?

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Hawaii Hiker Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-15-09 08:21 PM
Original message
When you see Obama's approval ratings polls, which one (pollster) do you think is best?
Anytime Rasmussen or the even worse Zogby releases a presidential approval poll, I don't take it seriously, as both organizations are run by Republican hacks....And I won't even glance at any FAUX Noise polls for very obvious fucking reasons.....

I still view the NBC/WSJ, CBS/NYT, & ABC/Washington Post, polls as the best...
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Hosnon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-15-09 08:23 PM
Response to Original message
1. Rasmussen seems at least consistent, even if they are not accurate.
Which leads me to believe that its methods are not entirely wrong; its simply missing something in its technique.
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scheming daemons Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-15-09 08:40 PM
Response to Reply #1
4. Rasmussen only polls "likely voters"
....

and he defines them as

older
whiter
more conservative


If you're under 45, he considered you less likely to vote.


That's why he was so wrong in 2008, until the final week when he adjusted his numbers to show an "Obama surge".

He did that so he could get the election right... which is the only poll that people pay attention to.
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MadBadger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-15-09 08:35 PM
Response to Original message
2. Gallup for me.
The gallup tracking poll has had his disapproval from 37-44 and approval from 51-58 for the past few months. I agree that his approval numbers are in the middle of all that.
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scheming daemons Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-15-09 08:38 PM
Response to Reply #2
3. Yep. Gallup has been doing it for decades and has always been accurate and unbiased.
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Captain Hilts Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-15-09 09:19 PM
Response to Reply #3
6. They're a bit sloppy with how they balance their polling sample, so their
surveys often have wider amplitudes in swings.
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Captain Hilts Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-15-09 09:17 PM
Response to Original message
5. John Zogby is a Democrat from Utica, NY. His brother is James Zogby who
Edited on Tue Sep-15-09 09:18 PM by Captain Hilts
fights for rights and respect for Arabs living in the US.
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Hawaii Hiker Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-15-09 09:24 PM
Response to Reply #5
7. Seriously?...The guy who said PA. was a toss up before the election
is a Democrat....Obama won PA by 11%...

Ok, bad assumption on my part then, :dunce:
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Captain Hilts Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-15-09 09:26 PM
Response to Reply #7
8. Turnout was all over the board in '08. It's hard to outguess that. nt
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Zynx Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-15-09 10:02 PM
Response to Reply #8
13. His accuracy sucked compared to other pollsters.
That's a statistical fact.
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Captain Hilts Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-15-09 10:03 PM
Response to Reply #13
14. And he's been accurate when others were not. It's a bit of a crapshoot. nt
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SemiCharmedQuark Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-15-09 10:04 PM
Response to Reply #14
16. There is no crapshoot involving his interactive polls-they're horrible.
He should not pretend that they are anything other than a vague idea of a poll but he pretends like they are valid.
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SemiCharmedQuark Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-15-09 10:00 PM
Response to Reply #5
12. Zogby's regular polls are OK, but his "interactive" polls violate a basic principle of statistics
Edited on Tue Sep-15-09 10:02 PM by SemiCharmedQuark
Those polls do not use a random sample. The fact that, as a pollster, he KNOWS this and STILL goes on TV with these interactive polls as though they are valid pisses me off.
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Captain Hilts Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-15-09 10:03 PM
Response to Reply #12
15. They are just doing them to see what populations answer those things and how it
changes over time and how it compares with other surveys.

They're meaningless beyond that.
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SemiCharmedQuark Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-15-09 10:05 PM
Response to Reply #15
17. They are meaningless, but that doesn't stop Zogby from running to Fox News with the results.
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Captain Hilts Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-15-09 10:17 PM
Response to Reply #17
19. So long as they identify them as what they are, it's okay. Folks here are always running
to do online surveys.

I think they're all pretty stupid,
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uponit7771 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-15-09 09:32 PM
Response to Original message
9. Gallup, SUSA.....Rasmusen undersamples and even weights
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Drunken Irishman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-15-09 09:39 PM
Response to Original message
10. I generally just average them all together and I think you get about the right number.
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Kaleva Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-15-09 09:56 PM
Response to Original message
11. The one that gives Obama the highest approval rating is the best.
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cherokeeprogressive Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-15-09 11:03 PM
Response to Reply #11
20. Correct. n/t
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KittyWampus Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-15-09 10:12 PM
Response to Original message
18. Pew
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Zynx Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-15-09 11:09 PM
Response to Reply #18
21. Agreed. They are pretty much always the most accurate and ask questions in the least skewed way.
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masuki bance Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-15-09 11:22 PM
Response to Original message
22. I use these two resources-
http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/jobapproval-obama.php?xml=http://www.pollster.com/flashcharts/content/xml/Obama44JobApproval.xml&choices=Approve,Disapprove&phone=&ivr=&internet=&mail=&smoothing=&from_date=&to_date=&min_pct=&max_pct=&grid=&points=1&lines=1&colors=Disapprove-BF0014,Approve-000000,Undecided-68228B

and

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html


They both look at many polls.
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Nicholas D Wolfwood Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-16-09 08:10 AM
Response to Original message
23. Gallup mostly.
Rasmussen is consistent, so if you just shift 2 or 3 points over to the Democratic side, you'll usually get something accurate. Daily Kos/R2000 actually seems pretty decent too, even with the obvious bias.
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