|
Political Theory of the day. There is an old baseball saying....In a 162-game season you win 54 and lose 54. It is what you do with the other 54 that determines your season,
Baucus has been trying to get some Republicans on Board and has now apparently given up. So much for a Bipartisan bill. Some will argue that it was a fool's mission (maybe maybe not) But her's the thing because of the coarsening and hardening of political lines in this country.we no longer seem to have the ability draw the muddled middle into coalition.
It's what you do with the middle 54 games. It is moderate voices in both parties that typically craft legislation that gets passed.
It is not that that they did not want real reform, it is that their own local political realities (fundraising, caucus pressure, modest agendas0 would not let it happen, Basically, the pull of the Right beat the pull of the Left. The remaining moderate voice in the GOP's political inability to get it done will certainly make the final bill more progressive the Conservatives will like.
That likely now means that the Democrats will write the final bill, and push it through final passage using what is called the reconciliation process and that means the bill will only need 51 votes in the Senate not a filibuster-proof 60,
But here is the thing. and its the middle 54 thing.If there were more moderate Republicans in the House and the Senate, this legislation could have bee crafted far sooner with moderates from both parties determining the outcome.
A healthy two party system is a good thing. The problem is that there are so few Moderate Republican left. SO what has occurred in part is that because the GOP has contracted, political lines have hardened, rhetoric has been amped up and a a consequence the legislation will be more progressive and will be easier to pass.
This is the consequence of a GOP leadership vacuum in Washington and that vacuum being filled by RW bloggers and talk show hosts. holding sway over party discipline. There is little room or tolerance for moderate voices in the GOP anymore.
The GOP has lost the ability to win the middle. either electorally or legislatively.
There is a Bloomberg Poll out this morning that shows that the President has his number up again and the GOP has no support beyond it core 35%.
-------- Sept. 16 (Bloomberg) -- President Barack Obama earns high marks for his performance even as Americans express anxiety about his domestic policies. One possible reason: Republicans aren’t offering an alternative.
A Bloomberg News poll gives Obama a job-approval rating of 56 percent and 61 percent say they feel favorably about him. Still, respondents are divided over the president’s handling of health care and the economy, while giving him a negative grade on the growth of the budget deficit.
“Americans are despairing of the federal deficit in the wake of several huge government spending programs,” says J. Ann Selzer, the president of Selzer & Co., a Des Moines, Iowa-based firm that conducted the poll. “Health care is one more big- ticket item and taxpayers appear to believe at some point they, or their children, will hold the bag.”
Republicans aren’t benefiting from the negative sentiment toward the economic policies, the poll shows. The survey finds that by about a 2-to-1 margin, Americans say Obama is doing a better job on the economy than his predecessor, George W. Bush......
Respondents also say by 40 percent to 32 percent that they would vote for a Democratic candidate for Congress in 2010. A slight plurality, 48 percent to 44 percent, has a favorable opinion of the Democratic Party. The Republican Party, by 52 percent to 38 percent, gets an unfavorable rating. ------------------------------
The Finance committee is now going to do mark ip and vote it out on a party line vote, Amendments will be offered on the floor and passed or failed on Party line votes. Final Senate Passage to get it to conference will be on a party line votes and the House wil will have far more say in crafting the final bill.
Which will pass both house on Party line votes, Republicans will say that they were frozen out. but the truth of the matter is that it is the GOP who is their own worst enemy.
Legislation in this country has always been shaped by the Philosophical Middle, regardless of Party affiliation because it is the "middle 54" where you find the votes for passage. The problem now is that all those Moderate voices now seem to be in the Democratic Party. Moderate Republicans have become an oxymoron and this is a very dangerous place for a party with weak legislative and party leadership to begin with.
This is a case of the perfect being the enemy of the good.When conservatives demand that the GOP vacate the middle for reason of philosophical fidelity, they sacrifice the ability to impact legislation, they lose the respect of moderate voters and it would seem likely that they sacrifice their ability to claw their way out of the political wilderness by taking back either Congress or the White House for a generation to come back.
I think it is unprecedented in our history. Not because of the balance of power in each chamber but because the center of power ion the right has shifted to the folks with the largest megaphone and a way from their Congressional leadership. Because of this, it is going to be much harder for the GOP to come back
|