Marc Lynch - FP - Why President Obama Disclosed Iran's Nuclear Facility Ahead of Talks

Here is a great analysis of the diplomacy behind the disclosure:

http://lynch.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2009/09/25/the_iran_nuclear_revelation

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It also demonstrates to the Iranians the quality of Western intelligence and the difficulty of deception and denial -- especially in the atmosphere of (quite warranted) mistrust of their intentions. That may reduce their reasons to oppose the intrusive inspections and monitoring regime which Gary Sick argues is the most likely reasonable negotiated outcome. Such an outcome would be far more in the interests of the U.S., Iran, and Iran's neighbors than any plausible outcome of a military strike, and has to be the target of the engagement process.

So despite what I expect to see swarming the media in the next few days -- wanna bet that John Bolton or John Bolton-equivalent oped is already in production over at the Washington Times/ Washington Post (sorry, it's hard to tell the difference on foreign policy issues sometimes) -- I actually think that this public revelation makes war less rather than more likely. The timing of the announcement, immediately following the consultations at the UN and the G-20 and just before the Geneva meetings, makes it seem extremely likely that the Obama administration has been waiting for just the right moment to play this card. Now they have. It strengthens the P5+1 bargaining position ahead of October 1, changes Iranian calculations, and lays the foundations for a more serious kind of engagement. So now let's see how it changes the game.

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:rofl:

strategy when they see it.

all the handing wrining by some that this the beginning of some Bush like plan to invade Iran is just stupid.

Apparently we have no right to discuss security matters anymore since Bush was president. :eyes:

I don't they gotten the idea that Obama is not Bush.

when bushcheney got through breeding more terrorists because they bombed Iraq.

Now, PO has to come along and use his mad skills to get us out of jeopardy.

new?

a united front

the Iranians found out we knew so they informed the IAEA so Obama outed them. i think either Russia or China (who we just informed of the new Iranian plant) told Iran.

is somehow a "find" by the USA, GB, or Fr? WTF kind of spin is this crap?

they still got caught lying


We've known for some time" about the Iranian facility, said a U.S. official briefing reporters at the G20 Economic Summit in Pittsburgh. And other officials said President Obama was first informed of the facility after his election last year.

To beat the U.S., Britain and France to the punch, Iran on Monday informed the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) about the nuclear facility. That was three days before the allies presented the United Nations watchdog group with its intelligence.

"It's very clear the Iran letter (to the IAEA) is too little, too late," said a U.S. official. It'll be difficult for Iran to "mount a defense" of its efforts to avoid exposure of its nuclear fuel processing facility.

http://www.cbsnews.com/sections/politics/politicalhotsheet/main503544.shtml

...and just prior to the upcoming talks when the U.S. My take is that Iran decided to fess up, rather than denying the existence of the plant, in order to preserve the upcoming talks or they would have ended before they began if Iran did not even acknowledge the facility.

a hard secret to keep.

of his affaire before he was busted by other sources.

The story is just neo-con bullshit and lies.

Typical neo-cons strategy. Repeat a lie one thousand times until people can't tell truth from fiction.

telling them about this facility. This is beyond obvious. Iran somehow found out that we had intelligence on their nuclear facility and knew about it, so Iran sent a letter to the IAEA to tell them about the facility to try to act as if they were being upfront and honest. Obama had to act quickly to make sure that Iran would be viewed as hiding the facility instead of disclosing the facility to the IAEA.

"Iran somehow found out that we had intelligence on their nuclear facility and knew about it, so Iran sent a letter to the IAEA to tell them about the facility to try to act as if they were being upfront and honest." So how did Iran find that out? That's total neo-con bullshit. Neo-cons are trying to create an issue to justify bombing the country.

You seem misinformed because this is not neo-con BS. However, to put your mind at ease, military strikes are very unlikely, mostly because they have little chance to succeed. Israel bombed Saddam Hussein's nuclear reactor that he bought from France in the 1980s. Iran learned from that experience which is why this nuclear facility is underground with tons of concrete on top of it to protect it from a conventional strike. The ironic thing is that the only sure way to destroy an underground nuclear facility protected with enough concrete is to use a low-yield nuclear bomb, something which Obama is clearly not going to do. :hi:

to invent controversy where none exists.