Zogby's "magic" dates re: polls--9/15-16.....we're past them..

Weeks ago I remember reading a comment by Zogby about the polls.

Basically, he said that things start falling into place about Sept. 15-16 and this is when they should start to be taken seriously...

That's it.

What a bummer. Then again, we're not that down in Zogby polls.

They are not taking into consideration the level of commitment, or the incredible influx of newly registered voters.

All will be surprised. It ain't even gonna be close, folks.

Think about all of the people who now use a cell phone as their only phone, and what that means to the reliability of polling. I know sooooo many people who have ditched their land lines, and every single one of them are voting Kerry.

I think the polls are utter shite!

poll that IS chasing down cell phones????

They randomly dial numbers from three area codes digit prefixes

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/specials/elections/chi-0409180069sep18,1,4354114.story?coll=chi-news-hed

A few selected paragraphs from the article...

"Opinions are shifting as people think about something one day and think about something different the next," said Andrew Kohut, director of the Pew Research Center. "The convention period created instability in the electorate that probably won't stabilize until after the debates."

SNIP

Although significantly more voters are using cell phones as their sole home telephone line, Kohut said research shows no more than 3 percent of the electorate has been removed from the polling universe.

However, I would note that even with the events of the last four years, there are still many out there who are undecided, and IMO Zogby is right to say that this is time when those people start to pay attention.

Sad, isn't it? Three and a half years of this, and it's just now that they start to pay attention.

Florida voter intimidation, marking ballots with 'D' and 'R' -- already being reported.

Electronic voting.

was the only poll that has ANY credibility. as it's the only one who was even close to calling the 2000 election. all the others had bush ahead like 16% even though gore won.

so zogby i will pay a bit of attention to. everyone else can go to he*l.

I'm not just saying that because Kerry is ahead in Harris. TruthIsAll showed that both Harris *and* Zogby were very close in '92, '96 and 2000.

If Bush is only tied or slightly behind now, he's toast come November.

I heard on one of the CNN shows this week a Kerry rep say that the Harris poll was the most accurate in 2000. I'm not sure but I thought JK was even in last week's Harris poll.

Conducted for the media, seem to be skewed in Bush's favor. SOmwhere I got to the actual numbers of people polled in the Gallop Reports, and noticed that they polled a far greater number of Republicans than Democrats. There usually is a small difference in the polls when you find this data, like 408 Democrats, 411 Republicans, nothing large, but when I saw the data from the Gallop polls there were much larger differences in the number of Republican and Democrats easily 50 or so more Republicans in a poll totalling a thousand Democtars Republicans and Independents. Same thing for Independents, there were a considerable number more Indies polled than Dems. When you figure that a 90 percent of the Republicans will vote for Bush, a five percent differnce in the number of people polled can have a significant effect on the percentages found in these polls. So right no, I am totally ignoring any polls done for CBS, or CNN/TIME or ABC/Washington Post. Sticking to Zogby, ARG, Harris, and Other pollsters (not Strategic Vision though, conservative pollster)

I beleive that the idea of poll have become such a big issue sonce the 2000 election where all of the news about the brilliance of Zogby's predictions has made polls much more noticed by the average voter, that polls now are being used as a tool to try to discourage voters or connvince them that the election is a done deal.

Conducted for the media, seem to be skewed in Bush's favor. SOmwhere I got to the actual numbers of people polled in the Gallop Reports, and noticed that they polled a far greater number of Republicans than Democrats. There usually is a small difference in the polls when you find this data, like 408 Democrats, 411 Republicans, nothing large, but when I saw the data from the Gallop polls there were much larger differences in the number of Republican and Democrats easily 50 or so more Republicans in a poll totalling a thousand Democtars Republicans and Independents. Same thing for Independents, there were a considerable number more Indies polled than Dems. When you figure that a 90 percent of the Republicans will vote for Bush, a five percent differnce in the number of people polled can have a significant effect on the percentages found in these polls. So right no, I am totally ignoring any polls done for CBS, or CNN/TIME or ABC/Washington Post. Sticking to Zogby, ARG, Harris, and Other pollsters (not Strategic Vision though, conservative pollster)

I beleive that the idea of poll have become such a big issue sonce the 2000 election where all of the news about the brilliance of Zogby's predictions has made polls much more noticed by the average voter, that polls now are being used as a tool to try to discourage voters or connvince them that the election is a done deal.

I responded to a Zogby presidential poll yesterday.

The last one had * 47% Kerry 45%. I looked on pollingreport.com.

article. I know I read it here at DU...

The Gallop poll and the Newswee poll so far and indicated that the polls that found laarge leads for Bush were simply polling more Republicans and not adjusting for the larger percentage of Republicans they were polling.

The latest ARG polls have Kerry ahead for September.

allow undecideds - leaners have to pick.

The polls that ask questions about a lot of issues first and then ask who you will vote for always have Kerry doing better. Clinton said on the Daily Show that when people think, Democrats do better and this certainly shows that to be true.

I heard this information on CNN from the Gallop polling person who they were interviewing by phone because the Gallop results were being questioned and Bill Schneider is the one that said Kerry does better in the polls that also ask the issue questions.

this tells me that Kerry must be doing rather well in what used to be Bush country.

Even Pentagon employees are disgusted. Shrub has made a mess of every federal department with his right-wing ideological incompetent political appointees, and long-time bureaucrats are retiring in droves. Most of them live in Virginia.