This Race Is TOO DAMN CLOSE!!!

Recently, I pulled down some data on individual states from several different national polling organizations. No organization had polls in all 50 states, plus DC...however, I did manage to get data from what I consider to be credible sources, and the data jibed with what I have been afraid of from jump street!

Of nine major national polling organizations, I included data from seven of them: American Research Group, Mason-Dixon, Quinnipiac University, Rasmussen, Research 2000, SurveyUSA, and Zogby. I deliberately dicounted data from two polling organizations, as I feel they are nothing but cheerleaders for Bush...Gallup, and Strategic Vision.

What I found is very disturbing. I'll provide the breakdown I came up with here.

I found no polls for DC, DE, LA, or MS among the seven I used, and, so, I credited Kerry with DE and DC, following conventional wisdom...and similarly, credited Bush with MS and LA, again using conventional wisdom.

It appeared to me the two tossups, where there was no clear winner, when the polls from these seven organizations was averaged...are Florida and Pennsylvania, so I credited neither candidate with those two, and considered them tossup states. More on this after the breakdown....

I am presenting the breakdown in the form of state potal code followed by number of electoral votes for that state, (example: TX34 or NV5 indicates Texas 34 or Nevada 5.)

The following went Bush: AK3, AL9, AR6, AZ10, CO9*, GA15, ID4, IN11, KS6, KY8, LA9, MO11, MS6, MT3, NC15, ND3, NE5*, NV5, OH20, OK7, SC8, SD3, TN11, TX34, UT5, VA13, WY3 for a total of 242.

The following went Kerry: CA55, CT7, DC3, DE3, HI4, IA7, IL21, MA12, MD10, ME4*, MI17, MN10, NH4, NJ15, NM5, NY31, OR7, RI4, VT3, WA11, WI10, WV5 for a total of 248.

The starred states indicate states whose electorals can be divided, assuming the legislation in CO passes (as it will be applied to Election 2004 if it does. If it does, Bush gets full credit for two states that may split (CO and NE) and Kerry gets one that might split (ME). If the Colorado initiative fails, then each candidate has one that may split electorals.

The two "tossups" are Florida and Pennsylvania. Florida carries 27, Pennsylvania carries 21. following "conventional wisdom," I would assign PA to Kerry, and FL to Bush, resulting in a 269-269 Electoral tie!! We all know what THAT would mean!!

Thus...could it really come down to the Colorado Initiative, in deciding our next President?? Assuming that ME and NE hold solid for their candidate...or perhaps each splits off one, for a wash...you have a 269-269 tie...but if Kerry gets ONE VOTE from Colorado....it becomes 270-268 Kerry wins!!!

This is just NUCKIN' FUTS!!! I'm going CRAZY this election season...it's too damn close for me!! Meanwhile, I am working my ass off to register voters (not that it will matter much in the Presidential race, since I'm in Texas...but I'd like to get some local and statewide races to tip our way and embarrass the crap outta Bush...)

BUT...Colorado DU'ers....YOU MAY HOLD THE KEY TO OUR VICTORY!! It is VITALLY IMPORTANT for you guys to help the inititive in Colorado pass, and VOTE!!! All we need, with the breakdown I got, and it seems to be pretty reliable...we only need ONE VOTE from Colorado!!

If anyone has some voter lists in Colorado and some scripts to get people to vote in favor of the initiative, let me know, I'm happy to use my unlimited cell phone weekends, and unlimited long distance to call people in Colorado to ask them to vote FOR the initiative!!

Colorado may be our ALAMO!!!

I am in NY so I can't fo much with CO. Good job

May I suggest that you can have an effect if you know and contact someone in CO?

I've contacted someone in PA to vote Kerry and I'm working on another in NC.

And this is little ol' ME.

It all helps - GOTV.

Thanks.

As for the race being so close, I hate to say it, but the dems choice in the primaries has a lot to do with it. That in no way is meant to say I have any trouble supporting Kerry BTW. We just have to fight this one to the wire is all.

.... that all presidential elections from now until the foreseeable future will be very very close.

The reason is simple. The candidates will both "triagulate" towards the center to try to get as many votes as possible without losing any votes. Whoever is most successful at this will win, but the vote itself will always be close because both candidates are going for the "last voter".

:argh:

Going by history, incumbents always win or lose by a big margin, as if everyone makes up their mind at the last minute. We do need to be vigilant and not complacent. Polls right now are meaningless because so much can change quickly, especially as a result of external events that neither candidate can control -- though I believe Bush will try to, via a deal to lower oil prices with the Saudis in time for an election boost. But we've got F911 dvd coming out too, though I'm uncertain how much play that would get.

There's only one poll that will matter. The one that takes place during election day in the ballot booth. And going by history, the results there won't be close, for better or worse.

I still like PA for Kerry and OH as the tossup.
As long as the race remains pretty close to even (within 2) in the popular vote, Kerry's 264 remains the base mark. This is the Gore states (including PA, WI, IA, etc) plus NH.

This is the group of states that cannot really be assigned either way at this time IMO:
FL, OH, NV, WV.

If indeed CO does split its EV's, this helps Kerry quite a bit in this scenario since he will just need to win any one of the above. FL or OH wins it outright. NV or WV wins it with the addition of just one CO split EV (likely 3-5). That is if the CO split can survive the court challenge.

Perhaps it is because there is no daylight on Iraq! Saying that Bush is wrong on Iraq is merely stating the obvious. What will you do different that is really different? How about telling the truth about Iraq for a change! The war is lost and the US should bring the troops home, NOW!

I predict a train wreck, probably WORSE than 2000. Lawsuits, recounts, fraud, irregularities, diversions, voter scare tactics, and the Supreme Court, The House and maybe even Tom Ridge stepping in, it will make 2000 look like a vote on an off-off-year for local dog catcher.

We shouldn't really count on Colorado unless we win it outright.

If the Colorado referendum passes while Kerry loses the state overall (thus giving 4EVs for Kerry), and if those 4EVs put Kerry past the magic 270EV mark, we will see a lawsuit from the GOP challenging the Colorado referendum's constitutionality.

The GOP will argue that the U.S. Constitution allows each state's legislature to decide how to allot its electoral votes. The Colorado referendum will have been put on the ballot by ballot initiative, and then passed by the voters themselves - not the Colorado state legislature. On the face of it, this would be called inconsistent with the US Constitution's directions.

The case would make its way to the U.S. Supreme Court, the USSC would do Bush's bidding, Kerry's 4 Colorado electoral votes would be awarded to Bush, and Bush would eeek past the 270 line once again.

On the other hand, if Kerry wins Colorado overall while the referendum passes, and if Bush wins the election with those 4EVs from Colorado, you can bet that Kerry will make the above argument and lose before the USSC. Bush will keep his 4EVs and go on to another term. Whether or not it's a good legal argument is of no real issue; the USSC wading into this is the larger worry for me.

Be careful, Coloradoans.. I thank you profusely for your efforts.

one of those BBV states? I sort of remember the Dem
Senate candidate leading going into the 2002 midterms and then Allard won.

There are so many issues to be concerned about this time - BBV, supression of minority votes, lawsuits, recounts, terrorist attacks...

In 2000 the pundits proclaimed it a victory for democracy because there were no tanks in the street. Add tanks in the street to my list of concerns this time, as well.

MzPip
:dem:

Colorado state legislature long since approved voter initiatives on ballots. Thus, the initiative placed on the ballot by voters is valid in colorado, for better or worse.
The state legislature, in allowing for ballot referendums, has already given it's approval for the Electoral Votes to be determined by this vote.
Thus, there is no argument that stands up. I'm serious, though, when I say I fear Civil War over this election!! Both sides are more polarized than I have ever seen, and both sides are to the point where they will do ANYTHING to get their way, and Heaven help us if they don't! This is what Bush "the untier not the divider" has given us...a country more bitterly divided than I have ever seen in my lifetime!
And I can tell you that the liberal-progressive side isn't going to take another 2000 sitting down! Likewise, the conservo-creeps are not likely to take a loss sitting down, they will NOT go peacefully because the people have asked them to.
Either way, I fear a literal Civil War in this country. And this time, I don't think it will be a nice, neat North vs South thing...not even a nice Red vs. Blue thing...there will be "opportunity groups" all over the place that will take advantage of civil unrest, and we will end up with 100 different factions all fighting each other for the rancid bits of what is left of a once-great nation...tanks in the streets and martial law will become the norm.
This is what I fear. We truly ARE that divided a people now. And Abe Lincoln said it 7 score and 3 years ago..."A house divided against itself cannot stand." I agree. I think we may well be looking, sadly, at the final days of the United States of America...and I shudder to think what might replace it.

...and that's where Vicki and are focusing.

This morning, we went out as part of an effort to drop registration packets at thousands of rental units in Fort Collins, and I understand this has been happening all over Colorado this past month.

And this afternoon, we're doing our first-ever precinct walk, part of 300-400 volunteers doing that in this city alone. This, we are told, is a critical weekend.

We can only hope and pray that the same degree of energy we're seeing here is happening all over this great nation, especially in the swing states.

Thanks for making the effort. We meet lots of nice people in the volunteer groups. We're meeting this weekend, too, in ME. (I'm working at work, unfortunately, by my wife's going.) HOPE is on the way because we ARE the HELP that is on the way!

I'm too nucking futs, also, with the closeness of the numbers. Although, you figured it out in more detail above.

I'm working hard to buck up and get out the vote. One fence-sitter or apolitical at at time. So far I'm up to five or six, and two or three of those have spun off and bagged one or two converts of their own, too.

It will take this personal effort by everyone on DU. So don't just post in the virtual world - speak up and find a few receptive ears and bend them to vote Kerry!

As XBox advertises, to paraphrase, live in the real world - play in ours. In this case, we gotta work hard in the real world (get out the vote) and play hard in this world - rant and rave.

Nevertheless, I'm working my ass off here in Texas, to at least deliver Bush an embarrassment here...he's not gonna win here by 20%...more like maybe 7-8%, and lose a lot of the local and statewide races. This would be a major embarrassment to Bush, and it is what I hope to bring about through my efforts.
As of 8/13/04 when I became Deputized as a voter registrar, I have registered 86 voters. And I can rest easy in the idea that at least 75-80 of them are definitely Democrats.
The way I see it, this means I now get to vote 87 times...once for myself, and 86 times for all the people who would not have voted if I hadn't registered them!
87 votes for John Kerry, please!! :)

even before things tightened I never believed we, in the end, were going to carry certain states. I agree with giving PA to Kerry (dem machine there) and Florida is so definitely Bush that it's crazy to think otherwise (we could win by 99% but it will always be declared Bush because that's what little brother is there for). Basically, we are going to carry the Gore states..period. It will either take this CO split or one very oddball state breaking on the east coast on election day. The scenerio for a Dem disaster is if when the east results come in, PA or a NJ goes Bush....from there it will all go over like dominoes.

plus New Hampshire.

That's 264EVs.

We then need to peel-off just 6 more EVs from one or two of the following states:
West Virginia
Virginia
North Carolina
Florida
Ohio
Tennessee
Arkansas
Missouri
Colorado
Arizona
Nevada

The real debate, to me, is where to get those other six. I personally think we should go all-out for Colorado - while angling for a defeat of the electoral vote referendum. After that, Ohio.

I just crunched the numbers I got from seven different RELIABLE national polling organizations. even if those polls included a statistical anomaly, it was included. Because, for the most part...these polls all agreed with one another. Strategic Vision and Gallup are way the fuck out in left-field...(or should I say right field??) Looking at their results makes it so painfully obvious that they are nothing but Bush cheerleaders.

so I crunched numbers from the other seven I could put my hands on...and came up with what looks a reasonable breakdown. and it tells me that this race is ANYTHING but decided, by either side! We're gonna have to fight right down to the wire!

The one possible surprise is the 40 million voters who will be voting this time who didn't last time. Are they included in ANY of these polls I crunched? What effect will they have?

For the most part, let's face it...what motivates a voter who hasn't voted in years to finally go and vote?? ANGER!! RAGE!! Being pissed off over losing their job, or suffering a huge pay cut...maybe a son or daughter killed in combat. the real bread-and-butter issues are what is, for the most part, motivating these voters, I believe. and if I'm right, that's a hell of a boost for Kerry/Edwards, that is not making it into ANY polls!!

I didn't factor this into my own crunching either, since I have no reliable source to tie it to. I literally took what reliable numbers I could find and crunched them, being very careful to not includeany of my own biases in the crunching.

I think it is fair to say, I came up with a 269-269 tie, and I could assign a 10-point EV margin of error. I still say whoever wins, wins by no more than 15 EV's...as in, perhaps a 276-262 EV, but who gets the 276 is still anyone's guess. too damn close!!!

Depending on how you look at the polls and the pollsters, and people assigning states to candidates, you get different results. The real problem comes from pollsters who are pulling bizzarre stuff that results in polls that are really outliers, yet various organizations include these polls results in their analysis of who has the most EVs.

The polls assigning electoral votes like CNN are giving Bush states because he is a point or two ahead of Kerry in polls that have higher margins of error. Which means that they are assigning states to Bush where the polls are essentially tied. I have been examining four or five of the sites that assign electoral votes and every single one assigns very different amounts of electoral votes based on very different criteria set for giving states to a candidate.

I like Edwards and he is doing a very good job doing what Kerry seems to have. He gets Kerry's message and platform across in a clear, simple and concise manner. Listening to Edwards and you find that Kerry has a very concise plan. I think we might have got an earlier jump on attack mode, but now we must do what we can.

Thoough in some ways I still wish that Gephardt had been the nominee,or at least that Edwards had more of Gephardts traits. Edwards is not an attack dog, Gephardt is. Edwards is doing a good job doing a good job though. I wish they would get Gephardt more involved on Kerry's team though. He really does as good a job as Rove or anyone on the Bush team when it comes to formulating a good attack.

Things look bad for Kerry in one respoect. There were several polls that had Kerry ahead in the electoral college, but now all of them show Bush with a lead, though most of them still call the race too close to tell.

What I beleive is happening is that the media is trtying to influnce through polls. Gallop is essentially a Republican pollster now, given that its CEO is a major contributor to the Bush campaign. Every time Kerry seems to catch up to Bush again, some pollster who in some way is realted to the Bush campaign comes out with a poll to show Bush WAY ahead. There are still people who are influenced by polls, some people who just want to be on what appears to be the winning side. The appearance of being ahead simply is enough to attract some voters.

I also think that Kerry is being hamstrung by a number of Democrats who were running against him for the nomination, wanting Bush to win in 2004 in order to be able to take their own shot in 2008.

There is certainly a logic to that strategy. Another 4 years in office might give Bush power for 4 years, but the net results on the economy and what will more than likely end up as civil war in Iraq in which tens of thousands of U.S. troops will die would do irreparable damange to the Republican party.Plus aother likely terrorist attack on the U.S. on a scale that will make 9/11 look like a minor incident. Perhaps result in its demise. So far, everything that Kerry has predicted about Iraq. the War on Terror, and the Economy has occured. Kerry's speech on the floor of the Senate while discussing the authorization of Force, plus the predictions in his September 2002 and January 2003 Op Ed pieces on the Iraq and Terror situation have all come true.



But Kerry seems to be the Democratic Party's Cassandra. His predictions are true. But no one beleives him.

Eventually both BUsh and those who are now supporting him will have no one to blame but Bush for the catastrophes that have been occuring and will occur.

All of it because a large percentage of the American Public seem to favor a candidate who "Does what HE thinks is right, and stays that course" I would rather have a candidate who does what IS RIGHT, regardless of what HE thinks is right". Bush will stay the course, even if that course is straight into destruction. If he wins we have another 4 years of death and destruction in Iraq, an economy that flouders around for four years or gets much worse.

And eventually Bush having no one else to blame for what has happened. Not that he will care. He will have accomplished hiis aim, and is too wealthy for it to actuall effect him.

Rocky Mountain News

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Polls get pols' notice

September 18, 2004

Close races are exciting, and the presidential race in Colorado is extremely close.

The latest Rocky Mountain News/News 4 poll., taken Sept. 12-13, shows a statistical dead heat, with President Bush at 45 percent and Sen. John Kerry at 44 percent among likely voters. The margin of error is more than 4 percent, so who is actually in the lead - if anyone - is anyone's guess.

The campaigns certainly aren't taking Colorado for granted, with Bush appearing at a rally Tuesday, and Kerry here for an appearance Friday. Neither are forgetting that Al Gore lost Colorado to Bush by a margin of only 8 percent in 2000.

Some national polls show Bush with a larger, though still barely significant lead. Gallup has Bush up by 14 points nationally, while the Pew Research Center says the difference is only one point.

We think dead even is probably close to the truth. Indeed both campaigns say their own polling has the race close, with Bush's people seeing only a very slight lead for the president.

Copyright 2004, Rocky Mountain News. All Rights Reserved.

We need to find message boards there and get the word out without sounding pushy.

Here's one for them:

http://forums.rockymountainnews.com/index.cfm

Remember, the Repubs are trying to claim the high moral ground. We know better but can't sound petty. Just the facts.

I'm betting that Kerry would win. The undecideds tilting to the challenger, plus our base being fired-up, would be the deciding factors.

I feel it in my gut. Just watch how good a closer
Kerry is, he will win CO, PA, WI, IA, MO, NV, NM
which will put him over the top. FL will be the icing
on the cake.

I have played endlessly with the numbers, & have come up with a similar scenario.

However, at this time, I don t think you can count W.Va as a Kerry state. And Wisconsin...I have seen different polls, & I really don t have a feel for the state.

In my opinion, the problem is, we are now trying to hold Gore states.
We have to hold the Gore states & raid some other votes. Possibilities: Nevada & Arkansas.

Kerry stand on the gun issue this week probably dimmed chances in Ark. & W.Va.

I don't much like our chances for WV, either...but the raw numbers I crunched gave us a very slight win in WV. and this was crunched as an average among SEVEN pollsters.
Again, my own personal biases aside, my numbers show us wimming WV. I don't buy it, but it's there.
Similarly, I'm not so sure about MO going Bush. Or OH. Or NV. similarly, I'm not so sure about NM going Kerry.

so there's some room for play in there.

I just crunched as best, and as impartially as I could, using the most reliable sources I could get my hands on.

You did a really good job laying it out, because there are so many
variables to consider.

But your overall thesis, that it is too close, is absolutely right.

I think we will have a better idea of things after the 1st debates.

we actually have a shot at West Virginia?!

The last poll I'd seen had Bush up there by about 7.

I'd love to see us win West Virginia; with the Gore States, New Hampshire, and West Virginia.. we're exactly at 269EVs. Just one more state to choose from..

I like our chances in Nevada. And I like Colorado also, although the constintutionality cloud hanging over the referendums irks me..