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Kurt_and_Hunter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-12-09 02:14 PM
Original message
Poll question: If the national unemployment rate on election day, 2010 is 9% or higher...
Edited on Mon Oct-12-09 02:36 PM by Kurt_and_Hunter
In reference to employment assumptions in a series of Krugman blog entries...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x8697984




If the national unemployment rate on election day, 2010 is 9% or higher the number of Democrats in the House of Representatives will change by x.

x = ???
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AllentownJake Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-12-09 02:18 PM
Response to Original message
1. Democrats will get their asses kicked
Voters aren't logical and all this talk of patience is like trying to tame a raging flood with sandbags. Eventually the river crest over the sandbags.
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MUAD_DIB Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-12-09 02:27 PM
Response to Reply #1
11. Really? What will Mr. GOPyg offer in place of the Democrats?

More tax cuts for his buddies?

Bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb Iran?

More deregulation of the banks?


Americans may be dumb, but they know that the right does not have their interests at all in mind.


The only thing Mr. GOPyg has is fear and hatred. How are they going to run on that?

They haven't offered anything constructive in 12 years.
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AllentownJake Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-12-09 02:36 PM
Response to Reply #11
15. Again you are thinking logically
You will have lower turnout from traditional democrats and a riled up GOP base. An argument will be made by the right that the President took his eyes of the economy to focus on Healthcare. Those crossover voters who vote for both parties will swing to the party out of power.

If the American voting public was logical, there would have been no Bush administration in 2000.
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MUAD_DIB Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-12-09 04:45 PM
Response to Reply #15
24. Thanks for your concern.

The GOP have been saying that they will win for the last three election cycles.

Nobody believes them.


Keep up the good work, though.
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GreenTea Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-12-09 02:19 PM
Response to Original message
2. 21 1/2 month's is that enough time to reverse 8 years of Bush policies, 30 of deregulations
6 years of complete republican rule, 14 years of republican majority in congress and 21 1/2 month's of republicans saying NO to every change and Blue dog "Democrats" sabotaging any progressive legislation?
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Kurt_and_Hunter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-12-09 02:20 PM
Response to Reply #2
3. Of course not, but the question is not about justice
It's not a matter of whether voters would be correct, merely a question of what voters will do.
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FrenchieCat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-12-09 02:21 PM
Response to Reply #2
4. It's gonna have to be.......
Cause that is how we have been programmed, period.

Sad truth....but truth nevertheless.
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tekisui Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-12-09 02:26 PM
Response to Reply #4
9. It's just the nature of American politics.
Nothing new. Most of the voters don't pay attention, and have short memories. If the Dems can go out in 2010 and say, "See, you are better off. Here are jobs numbers." They will be rewarded with more time to continue their efforts.

If the numbers are as bad or worse, the repukes will come out and say, "See, the Dems couldn't do it. They had their chance and we are still worse off."

It doesn't matter one bit, whether the Dems policies are working or could work given time. Voters are impatient, and always have been. If a party can't produce results in a year and a half, they will take losses.
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Sebastian Doyle Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-13-09 12:15 PM
Response to Reply #2
33. You know that, and I know that, but the millions of people dependent on the corporate whore media
..for their "facts" DON'T know that. Because the media whores (no offense to sex workers) spread the lie that everything got worse after Obama became President, and also the lie that the DLC'ers and Blue Balled cowards represent the views of the Democrats who got them elected. They are (and will continue to )spinning everything in the Repukes favor. And sadly, the same people who thought a brainless Chimp could "keep them safe" will buy the next round of bullshit too.

Not to mention if the Massive Corporate Welfare and Mandatory Pay Insurance Companies or Go To Prison clusterfuck becomes reality, there will be massive turnover in Congress. And deservedly so, in that case.
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tekisui Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-12-09 02:22 PM
Original message
House Dems will take this one on the chin.
The Senate won't change much, if at all. But, the House could be a swing. I don't think the repukes have any chance at taking the majority, but Dems could lose 20+ seats.

It will be Blue Dogs that lose their seats. Just as well, really. Hopefully, if that happens, we can challenge the one term repukes with real Dems in 2012.
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Kurt_and_Hunter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-12-09 02:24 PM
Response to Original message
7. That's a very interesting point (re: idealogical mix)
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thunder rising Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-12-09 02:22 PM
Response to Original message
5. The Democrats just need to keep this albotross wrapped around the Winger's neck
Edited on Mon Oct-12-09 02:24 PM by thunder rising
Keep the party of NO in front of the public.
Democrats like Grayson, Wexler, Waxman, Wasserman Schultz etc are doing the heavy lifting. They could use some help.
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Lasher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-12-09 02:23 PM
Response to Original message
6. No worries. Unemployment will peak during 1Q2010
And the economy will be hitting on all cylinders by the time November rolls around.
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Kurt_and_Hunter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-12-09 02:30 PM
Response to Reply #6
12. That can all be true, yet still not yield a sub 9% level
Unemployment will probably peak early 2010. Call it 10.1%

And the economy will probably, in GDP terms, be doing well in mid 2010.

It does not follow from that that unemployment will go down much be election day.

From the links within the link in the OP:

"Okun’s Law suggests that it takes 2 points of GDP growth in excess of potential to reduce unemployment by 1 point. Potential growth is probably around 2.5."

If unemployment peaks Q12010 and the economy grows at 5% for the rest of the year it still doesn't mean sub-9% unemployment by election day.
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DrToast Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-12-09 05:25 PM
Response to Reply #12
26. The level of unemployment isn't as important...
...as the direction it's going. If we start adding jobs by early next year and the unemployment starts falling soon thereafter, it will be good for Dems.
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tekisui Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-12-09 02:31 PM
Response to Reply #6
13. I have heard that prediction, too.
I hope it is accurate or at best a too conservative estimate. As long as it swings by the early part of 2010, I think the Dems will be alright.
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earthside Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-12-09 02:37 PM
Response to Reply #6
16. Dream on.
But just like in 1934, if Democrats can point to health insurance reform and banking reform, they can still run against Bush/Cheney and even pick-up seats.

However, with the dollar tanking, debt still climbing, the U.S. auto industry still collapsing, things are not going to be getting substantially better anytime soon. This is a systemic economic crisis ... and unfortunately neither President Obama nor the Congress are acting to fundamentally change how we do our business and finance in this country. (They should be listening to Thom Hartmann, uh?)
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Knight Hawk Donating Member (336 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-13-09 08:28 AM
Response to Reply #6
30. No Way
Everything I see,hear ,read,observe etc. plus the many bussisness people I talk to, leads me to believe it will be somewhere between a little bit better or actually quite worse.It will also not be the same for years if ever.The foundation is simply seriously damaged.I live in an area of 3 million people,Tampa BAY,there are NO jobs.People are hunkering down .
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Lasher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-13-09 11:04 AM
Response to Reply #30
32. We shall see.
I agree there are systemic problems with the economy but that doesn't mean unemployment results won't start improving sometime during the first quarter next year as I predicted. Please take into account that unemployment is a lagging indicator that typically improves during a recovery sometime after other segments such as the stock market.

But like I said, we shall see. I have offered a forecast, which seems like it would be more accurate than a guess but they are actually the same thing.
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JuniperLea Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-12-09 02:24 PM
Response to Original message
8. Hmmm... this poll isn't working...
I voted, and my vote wasn't counted... I tried to vote again, and it said I'd already voted!

When did Diebold take over DU polls?

:scared:
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quiller4 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-12-09 02:26 PM
Original message
A few moves to reduce penalties on early withdrawals from
retirement accounts and a provision to allow those retiring at 62 to buy in to Medicare and we could persuade plenty of early boomers to retire opening up more jobs than have been lost in the last year and a half.

That move could drop unemployment dramatically as well as earn support from independents. Ds could see a net gain rather than a net loss.
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grantcart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-12-09 02:26 PM
Response to Original message
10. This is a good poll and would normally be the standard equation for mid terms

I wonder if the election will instead be a referendum on the health care legislation that is passed and the perception how it will effect each family.
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Kurt_and_Hunter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-12-09 02:32 PM
Response to Reply #10
14. Unfortunately there might not be many real-world effects by election day
Edited on Mon Oct-12-09 02:34 PM by Kurt_and_Hunter
I don't know what perceptions (of HCR) will be.

As I have said right along, all legislation should include some benefit that hits the next day, even if it's just a cup-cake.

Always give people something they can touch right away as a show of good faith.
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AllentownJake Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-12-09 02:42 PM
Response to Reply #10
17. A lot of it doesn't go into effect till 2011 to 2013
It leaves a lot of time for innuendo and rumor on how it will effect families.
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grantcart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-12-09 02:48 PM
Response to Reply #17
18. That is my point - if the spin after passage is good it will be a dramatic boost

If it is spun to scare people about the deficit and mandates we could lose 30 seats.
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AllentownJake Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-12-09 02:50 PM
Response to Reply #18
19. Well Grantcart
How do you think our media will spin it?

That is a rhetorical question.
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ProSense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-12-09 02:57 PM
Response to Original message
20. Didn't most people people say they would give recovery at least two years?
USA Today/Gallup Poll. Sept. 11-13, 2009. N=1,030 adults nationwide. MoE ± 4.

"Thinking about one year from now, do you think the U.S. economy will be fully recovered, better than it is now but not fully recovered, still in a recession, or worse than it is now?"

9/11-13/09

Fully Recovered 2%
Better, Not Fully Recovered 63%
Still In a Recession 23%
Worse Than Now 12%
Unsure 1%

Republicans may even lose seats.
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bluestateguy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-12-09 03:14 PM
Response to Original message
21. Doom Doom Doom. Gloom Gloom Gloom.
nt
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Kurt_and_Hunter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-12-09 03:16 PM
Response to Reply #21
22. Are you looking for the "Clap harder to save Tinkerbell" forum?
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treestar Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-12-09 03:58 PM
Response to Original message
23. More progressive Democrats might get elected
People are going to know the Repukes will just mess up the recovery that just got started. If they win the House, nothing will ever get done 2010 to 2012 - who wants that?
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Drunken Irishman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-12-09 04:59 PM
Response to Original message
25. I don't think anyone could honestly answer this poll...
Because God knows what the mood in the country will be.

What if the unemployment rate edges up to 13% by early 2010 and is down to 9% by November?

That's bad, but progress, right?

Too many what ifs to really answer. It's not as black & white...so I can't vote.
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Clio the Leo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-12-09 09:17 PM
Response to Original message
27. Some of you might want to read this....
.... just one take on it obviously, but there are some things to consider...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=8689863
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quaker bill Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-13-09 06:11 AM
Response to Original message
28. The bigger question
is not the number but the trajectory. If the number is dropping every month and has been doing so for a while, the absolute number is less of a problem.
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joeycola Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-13-09 08:02 AM
Response to Original message
29. I think they will lose some as this sustained loss of jobs over
time will not be good.
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Hippo_Tron Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-13-09 10:18 AM
Response to Original message
31. Entirely too many variables to get a good prediction by hand
Edited on Tue Oct-13-09 10:18 AM by Hippo_Tron
We do know that there's a correlation between the party in power's success in an election and the strength of the economy. We can't weigh that against the zillions of other factors that determine an election outcome without a good computer model.
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