We could take an area in election held by republicans since 1872

Edit for Link: http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2009/10/15/poll-gop-split-could-lead-to-democratic-victory/#more-73324


Poll: GOP split could lead to Democratic victory
Posted: October 15th, 2009 12:35 PM ET

From From CNN Deputy Political Director Paul Steinhauser

(CNN) – A new poll indicates that a split on the right could allow Democrats to take over a congressional district they haven't won in generations.

According to a Siena College survey released Thursday, 33 percent of likely voters in New York's 23rd congressional district support Democrat Bill Owens, with 29 percent backing Republican Dierdre Scozzafava and 23 percent supporting Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman.

Scozzafava's dropped 6 points over the past two weeks, with Owens now up 5 points and Hoffman jumping 7 points. The Democrat's 4-point lead over the Republican is within the poll's sampling error.

The election in the three-way race to fill a vacant congressional seat is 19 days away. The office opened up after nine-term Republican Rep. John McHugh stepped down after being confirmed as Secretary of the Army. The largely rural district spans 11 counties in northern New York.

Republicans have represented this area of the state since 1872. McHugh never won less than 60 percent of the vote in his nine election victories, but Barack Obama did edge out John McCain in the district in last year's presidential election.