IA-Sen/IA-Gov: Grassley & Culver Are Both Vulnerable

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/12-14, likely voters, no trendlines):

Chuck Grassley (R-inc): 51
Christie Vilsack (D): 40
Undecided: 11

Chuck Grassley (R-inc): 51
Roxanne Conlin (D): 39
Undecided: 10

Chuck Grassley (R-inc): 52
Bob Krause (D): 35
Undecided: 13

Chuck Grassley (R-inc): 54
Tom Fiegen (D): 31
Undecided: 15
(MoE: ±4%)

This is the first poll to test Chuck Grassley against a couple of higher-profile names: Christie Vilsack, the wife of former governor (and current Ag. Sec'y) Tom Vilsack, and Roxanne Conlin, former head of the Association of Trial Lawyers of America and 1982 Democratic nominee for governor (she lost 53-47 to none other than Terry Bradstad - we'll visit with him below). Both Vilsack and Conlin's names have been tossed around as possible candidates recently, with Conlin refusing to rule out a run and Vilsack openly suggesting she might join the race.

The best news about this poll, though, is that Grassley seems to have a cap of about 51-52% against a field which has room to grow. He does better against state Sen. Tom Fiegen, but only because half the state has no opinion of the latter. All the other three Dem names are in a much closer range in terms of favorables - former state Rep. and longtime public official Bob Krause is actually a bit better-known than Vilsack, and Conlin, it turns out, has the best nums with 44-29 favorables. (Also recall that last December, Grassley only led Tom Vilsack by 48-44 in another R2K poll.)

Hopefully Conlin or Vilsack will get in. Either woman would bring considerable resources to bear - Conlin, thanks to her high profile and network of wealthy lawyers, and Vilsack, due to her strong brand name and powerful political connections. SSP currently pegs this as a "Race to Watch," but if we get a top-tier challenger, that rating might soon change. (Discussion is also underfoot in this diary.)

Chet Culver (D-inc): 43
Terry Brandstad (R): 48
Undecided: 9

Chet Culver (D-inc): 55
Bob Vander Plaats (R): 33
Undecided: 12

Chet Culver (D-inc): 58
Chris Rants (R): 28
Undecided: 14
(MoE: ±4%)

How frustrating - Gov. Chet Culver utterly swamps a couple of unknown candidates, but along comes former four-term Gov. Terry Branstad showing the incumbent in a very vulnerable position. Branstad is still in "exploratory phase" - he just resigned as president of Des Moines University on Friday, but hasn't officially announced a run yet. Lingering unhappiness over events from his long tenure, as well as a possible right-wing vs. establishment split, could pose some roadblocks for Branstad. But right now, Culver ought to be very concerned.

http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/5753/iaseniagov-grassley-culver-are-both-vulnerable