Why would CNN use Gallup if their methodology is inaccurate?

Nevermind. The most trusted name in propaganda.

Carlos Watson scoffed at Gallup's recent poll results and said that sometimes you have to question the methodology of these pollsters. :7

Watson commented on how vital these year's debates will be and that viewership will be at an all time high. He said that some campaigns were actually won or lost based on the way the candidate did in the debates alone.

The most trusted names in propaganda. It's interesting that the polls from the WSJ, the Economist and other investment oriented media have far more accurate polls.

all of the Gallup polls.

" President Bush has surged to a 13-point lead over Sen. John Kerry among likely voters, a new Gallup Poll shows. The 55%-42% match-up is the first statistically significant edge either candidate has held this year."

As if there's only one poll and that would be Gallup.

Oh, and in case anyone thinks they're skewing the story, they DO balance it out by noting in paragraph seven of the 11-paragraph piece: "A Pew Research Center poll released Thursday shows a tighter contest. The survey, taken Saturday through Tuesday, gives Bush a statistically insignificant lead of 47%-46% among likely voters."

Thanks for nothing.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/president/2004-09-17-gallup-poll_x.htm

There is no way to determine ex ante if their polling method is correct. This is not simple random sampling, it's stratified random sampling. Until we get the exit polls the only way we can evaluate their model is to examine prior elections.

In 2000 http://www.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/stories/09/24/tracking.poll/index.html

Gallup's last poll called id 47Bush 46Gore so they were almost dead on. Only time will tell.

And who owns AOL/Time/Warner?

Oh yeah, the Saudis, and Ted Turner, who is pissed at the Saudis but is out numbered.

Who told you that?

:toast: BTW, I'm not the Freeper from Buckhead!

it's the only way we'll know for sure whether * stole the election (again) if he "wins". Perhaps you are thinking of the media agreement not to air exit polling results until AFTER all the ballots are in?

That's from September 24, 2000. The election was on November 7. :shrug:

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

From theleftcoaster.com:

This morning we awoke to the startling news that despite a flurry of different polls this week all showing a tied race, the venerable Gallup Poll, as reported widely in the media (USA Today and CNN) today, showed George W. Bush with a huge 55%-42% lead over John Kerry amongst likely voters. The same Gallup Poll showed an 8-point lead for Bush amongst registered voters (52%-44%). Before you get discouraged by these results, you should be more upset that Gallup gets major media outlets to tout these polls and present a false, disappointing account of the actual state of the race. Why?

Because the Gallup Poll, despite its reputation, assumes that this November 40% of those turning out to vote will be Republicans, and only 33% will be Democrat. You read that correctly. I asked Gallup, who have been very courteous to my requests, to send me this morning their sample breakdowns by party identification for both their likely and registered voter samples they use in these national and I suspect their state polls. This is what I got back this morning:

Likely Voter Sample Party IDs – Poll of September 13-15
Reflected Bush Winning by 55%-42%

Total Sample: 767
GOP: 305 (40%)
Dem: 253 (33%)
Ind: 208 (28%)

Registered Voter Sample Party IDs – Same Poll
Reflected Bush Winning by 52%-44%

Total Sample: 1022
GOP: 381 (38%)
Dem: 336 (33%)
Ind: 298 (30%)

In both polls, Gallup oversamples greatly for the GOP, and undersamples for the Democrats. Worse yet, Gallup just confirmed for me that this is the same sampling methodology they have been using this whole election season, for all their national and state polls. Gallup says that "This (the breakdown between Reeps and Dems) was not a constant. It can differ slightly between surveys" in response to my latest email. Slightly? Does that mean that in all of these national and state polls we have seen from Gallup that they have "slightly" varied between 36%-40% GOP and 32%-36% Democrat? I already know from an email I got from Gallup earlier in the week that in their suspicious Wisconsin and Minnesota polls they seemingly oversampled for the GOP and undersampled for the Dems. For example in Wisconsin, in which they show Bush now with a healthy lead, Gallup used a sample comprised of 38% GOP and 32% Democratic likely voters. In Minnesota where Gallup shows Bush gaining a small lead, their sample reflects a composition of 36% GOP and 34% Democrat likely voters. How realistic is either breakdown in those states on Election Day?

To make Karl Rove happy? Just a guess. . .

My ex-husband use to say that he would tell me two or three different stories before he would lie to me. (For some reason he thought that was funny.) He lied about that,too.

For your viewing pleasure - we have Gallup acting the part of an honest "polling group" and CNN has been cast as the "fat cat corporates pretending to be a news organization" in our little passion play called "Election 2004."

The bigger the Kerry surge gets the more "different" stories Gallup and CNN will have to tell.

The same thing is happening in the latest CBS poll which show Bush at 50 percent and Kerry at 41 percent. The percentage of Democrats polled is even They polls 55 percent Republicans, 50 percent Democrats, and 52 percent independents.