Increase in numbers of self-described Republicans could have an impact in

Increase in numbers of self-described Republicans could have an impact in November

WILL LESTER, Associated Press Writer
Friday, September 24, 2004


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



(09-24) 14:23 PDT WASHINGTON (AP) --

Voters in recent surveys are more frequently describing themselves as Republicans, a shift that could affect November elections up and down the ticket if it continues.

"In some measure, it's a reflection of the great success of the Republican campaign in late August and early September," said Andrew Kohut, a director of the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press. "Many of the people who considered themselves independents may be feeling better about the Republican Party."

A review of national polls after the Republican National Convention found a slight shift in the number of people who described themselves as Republicans compared with the number who said they were Democrats. Polls after the Democratic National Convention, showed strength for Democratic nominee John Kerry and the Democrats.

For example, an August AP-Ipsos poll had 50 percent self-described Democrats or those who leaned Democratic and 44 percent Republican or those leaning that way. In the September AP-Ipsos poll, 50 percent were Republican or leaned toward the GOP, and 43 percent were inclined to call themselves Democrats.

"There's a hidden Republican vote that came out after Sept. 11, faded and appears in the weeks since the Republican National Convention to have emerged again," said Thomas Riehle, president of Ipsos-Public Affairs.


more...
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/news/archive/2004/09/24/politics1646EDT0646.DTL

If a stranger calls you on the phone and asks in a menacing voice, "Do you consider yourself a Republican?" -- heck, yes, many people are going to say so. "Yes! I'm a Republican! God, guns, and NASCAR! Four more years! Please don't throw me in Gitmo!"

Another poll built on a fallacious premise, designed to defeat you.

(And even if the question is open-ended, as it probably is in real life, Americans are so darn scared these days that some number -- why perhaps even 6% of respondents -- may respond "Republican" out of sheer fear.)

If it was Do you consider yourself a Republican, or a Democrat? It could be very difficult for a lot of people to answer. I know quite a few who say they are socially liberal and fiscally conservative, but that answer doesn't fit the question.

Maybe this is just wishfull thinking, but I also believe there are a lot of solid conservative Republicans who are Extremely disenchanted with this admin.! They HATE the hugh fed debt! They aren't happy with the medicare bill that was forced through and signed! And they don't want anyone messing with social security. Those people would still say they are Pubs, but how are they going to vote in Nov?

After the 2000 election, a few of the media companies conducted polls in the Spring of 2001....more people claimed to have voted for Bush than actually voted. There is a small group of voters who always state they're for the perceived winner....which is why since the repub convention they're self-identifying as repubs. Kerry is the only one to shift this momentum....the debates will be his last chance. I was not one of the kool aid slurpers who thought the democratic convention was a raving success...so in a sense none of this surprises me.

i can't find the link anymore, but it is