ABC WashPost Poll: We're closing folks.

Bush 51
Kerry 45

was

Bush 52
Kerry 43

Once we get a look at internals, things ought to be even clearer. But in every poll, we're closing.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x2418611

screw all the polls, we will win!

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that is from 2000, back when Ohioians had jobs and children not in Iraq.

Compared to a 25% increase in republican voters. Sorry if they were almost tied in 2000 and there are now 250% more people registered to vote democrat, the state is ours.

Wake up and smell the victory.

We can not rest until these bastards are in jail, I have registered over 200 people to vote personally, what are you doing to make sure that not only do we win we win big?

But for gods sake quit letting the repubs take away our good news, their polls are bull shit, look at the internals and then factor in that they are not even counting newly registered voters.

Wake up to the fact that WE ARE THE MAJORITY!!!

just a few days before the deadline because our forms were not on the
right kind of paper. That's a real heartbreaker, since we all know how
hard people worked in Ohio to try to register all those voters. :cry:

In Florida, they are sending out the cops to intimidate our new voters
by threatening to arrest them for "fraud" if they try to vote. :grr:

> Wake up to the fact that WE ARE THE MAJORITY!!!

We were in 2000 too! They are robbing us again!

that if Kerry just gets to even - he wins.

Or just about.
We have such an excellent shot at this folks. It's all we could ask for and we have it.

In 2000, the ABC-WashPost daily tracking poll had Bush up by 4% over Gore on the day before the election.

The national election results show that Gore won by one-half a percentage-point.

That must have been well outside of their margin of error.

Gee, maybe they polled only their own "journalists."

Bush may take Texas, but not much else.

But what the heck - good for you!

they have both his record as Governator AND his record as Pretzeldent to look at ...

It will help restore my faith in the citizens of this country.

not bad at all. In my mind it is a tied ballgame. The debates will tell the tale. And our guy is an awesome debater (putting the spin aside for the moment).

...and the most important thing is that we have a little bit of momentum heading into the debates.

statistically insignificant movement to me.

That's unlikely. I could do a meta-analysis on all the polls released in the last week that all show closing, and determine it's significance, but I don't have the time. Would you do the meta-analysis for us? It'd be a big help.

Pfffft.

since August began.

. John Kerry

Favorable Unfavorable No opinion
9/26/04 RV 37 42 21
9/8/04 RV 36 42 23
8/29/04 RV 43 40 17
8/1/04 RV 51 32 16

b. George W. Bush

Favorable Unfavorable No opinion
9/26/04 RV 52 38 10
9/8/04 RV 51 39 11
8/29/04 RV 50 40 9
8/1/04 RV 47 45 8


This isn't something I see in any other poll.

Trust to Handle...
Terrorism, Bush 54, Kerry 37
Iraq, Bush 53, Kerry 40
Relations with Other Coutries, Bush 49, Kerry 41
Economy, Bush 48, Kerry 43
Jobs, Bush 44, Kerry 46

Favorable View of the Candidates...
Bush 52
Kerry 37

Preferences on Attributes...
Strong Leader, Bush 58, Kerry 32
Clear Stand, Bush 59, Kerry 28
Appealing Personality, Bush 51, Kerry 32

Attributes...
Strong Religious Faith, Bush 60, Kerry 18
Clear Stand on Issues, Bush 59, Kerry 28
Strong Leader, Bush 58, Kerry 32
Appealing Personality, Bush 51, Kerry 32
Will Make Country Safer, Bush 54, Kerry 37
Honest & Trustworthy, Bush 45, Kerry 38
Shares Your Values, Bush 48, Kerry 43
Understands Your Problems, Bush 43, Kerry 42

Candidate Has a Clear Plan...
For Handling Terrorism, Bush 62, Kerry: 36
For Handling Iraq, Bush 53, Kerry 38
for Handling the Economy, Bush 54, Kerry 51

versus Democrats and independents.

Isn't that what shrub's campaign is all about? Values??? That number is downright shoddy!

proof this poll is of mainly Republicans.

Kerry's natural leadership qualities will shine through. I've always thought that this is the best thing Kerry has going for him. He just looks like he should be the President.

"We are closing folks", but when the polls seem to favor Bush*, they are manipulated and worthless?

Which is it?

this poll, no matter how unless, is giving a fake perception of the 'gap' closing. bush 'led' by 12 after the RNC and now leads just 6. His 'big lead' is leaking. :)

http://abcnews.go.com/sections/politics/Vote2004/bush_campaign_poll_040909.html

snip

The fact that underlying views have changed means they can change again. After the Democratic convention there were eight points more Democrats than Republicans among likely voters; today, there are six points more Republicans than Democrats. Party allegiance has been +3 or +4 Democratic in exit polls since 1988; Kerry would gain ground by moving the alignment back to its Election Day norm. But shifting party allegiance is not his only problem: He's losing 12 percent of Democrats to Bush, twice Bush's loss of Republicans to Kerry.

snip

that's right ABC, real life party ID shifted 14 points cuz of the RNC. :eyes:

Previous poll in early September was 38 GOP, 32 Dem, 26 Ind.

See bottom of page, under "Party Line."

http://www.abcnews.go.com/sections/politics/Vote2004/bush_kerry_poll_040927.html

-MR

Did ABC have a typo here?

-MR

edited to remove math error

I double-checked this. It doesn't make sense that there are any other party classifications...are there smaller groups like "libertarian" or "nazi" that aren't taken into consideration here?

3% of the country's republicans decided to become Democrats over the last 2 weeks...

49 percent - 46 percent

Gore lost independents by 3

this poll consistently underestimates all our margins. So odds are we are even in the Indy's. And if Rasmussen et al. are to be believed, we are ahead in Indy's.