LMAO at electoral-vote.com - Democratic Underground

SidDithers

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Tue Sep-28-04 10:29 AM
Original message

LMAO at electoral-vote.com

Edited on Tue Sep-28-04 10:30 AM by SidDithers

I used to look at this site, thinking it was a fairly accurate picture of an electoral vote breakdown. But they currently have:
Kerry: 207 Bush: 317

Can anyone suggest a better electoral vote breakdown site, maybe one that takes margin of error into consideration, or counts "toss-up" states differently?

TIA,

Sid

Edit missing words.

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bryant69

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Tue Sep-28-04 10:31 AM
Response to Original message

1. Maybe that was their game

Get people confident in the site and then swing wildly now to make us all think it's over and give up.

Bryant
Check it out --> http://politicalcomment.blogspot.com

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SidDithers

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Tue Sep-28-04 10:38 AM
Response to Reply #1

5. Truthfully, that thought crossed my mind, too

I wonder if they were reporting as many SUSA and Gallup polls back when Kerry was over 300 ev's.

Sid

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Ediacara

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Tue Sep-28-04 10:32 AM
Response to Original message

2. electoral-vote is good and bad

they take every poll, even from partisan (strategic vision) and notoriously sloppy pollsters (gallup, badger poll).

They're a good rundown of what polls are out there, but unfortunately the map is biased by crappy polls.

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kaitykaity

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Tue Sep-28-04 10:33 AM
Response to Original message

3. Yeah, I got a lecture yesterday about how

great that site was, but they gave Oregon to Bush.

Oregon? Who do they think they're kidding?

:puke:

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lancdem

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Tue Sep-28-04 10:35 AM
Response to Original message

4. The problem is, they give a state to a candidate

Edited on Tue Sep-28-04 10:43 AM by lancdem

even when he's ahead by 1 percent. He's not partisan. It's just kind of misleading.

Edit: I just checked the numbers more closely. Maryland is tied, and there's not way that's anything but blue. That gives Kerry 217. He'a also tied in New Hampshire after being behind there, so that would give him 221. And he's behind by 1 percent in states worth 48 EV, so those states are very much in play for him, as are ones where he trails by 2 or 3 points. Remember, challengers get most of the undecideds, so states where Kerry is tied or behind by a couple of points are ones he has a great shot at winning.

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SidDithers

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Tue Sep-28-04 10:41 AM
Response to Original message

6. Their projection map is even funnier...

http://www.electoral-vote.com/fin/sep28p.html

Kerry 192, Bush 336.

Including Bush winning NJ by 4, PA by 4, WI by 12, and OH by 10.

Silly rabbit, trix are for kids.

Sid

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lancdem

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Tue Sep-28-04 10:45 AM
Response to Reply #6

9. He had an earlier map

showing Kerry winning Oklahoma, LOL.

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freetobegay

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Tue Sep-28-04 10:43 AM
Response to Original message

7. I have said all along this site was bogus!

But noone would listen to me, they kept saying it was fair & balanced! That should have been a clue right there!

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NewYorkerfromMass

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Tue Sep-28-04 10:44 AM
Response to Original message

8. presidentelect.org

Edited on Tue Sep-28-04 10:45 AM by NewYorkerfromMass

http://presidentelect.org/e2004.html

it's fairly sensible. and I think their map is about right now, with the exception of Florida and Pa. and Wisconsin.

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SidDithers

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Tue Sep-28-04 10:48 AM
Response to Reply #8

11. Thanks very much...

:hi:

Sid

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lancdem

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Tue Sep-28-04 10:48 AM
Response to Reply #8

12. That map is a bit outdated - 9/16 was almost two weeks ago

but it seems mostly accurate, except for PA, which the most recent polls have leaning Kerry a bit. That would give him 254, only 16 short of victory.

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TheDonkey

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Tue Sep-28-04 10:45 AM
Response to Original message

10. It changes very often, just to watch the trends of states

the person just takes any current state poll, and we all know how good "polls" are. So take the site with a bag of salt.

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