MoveOn.org smacks down Gallup in NYTimes full page ad

Below is the text of MoveOn.org's full page ad in today's NYTimes taking on Gallup - as well as CNN, USA Today, and other media who report the bogus Gallup polls. The full ad can be downloaded and viewed by visiting

www.MoveOn.org

The ad text:

WHY DOES AMERICA’S TOP POLLSTER KEEP GETTING IT WRONG?

If John Kerry believed in the Gallup poll, he might as well give up. A couple of weeks ago,a highly publicized Gallup poll of “likely voters” showed President Bush with a staggering 14-point lead.

But wait a minute. Seven other polls of likely voters were released that same week. On average, they showed Bush with just a three-point lead. No one else came close to Gallup’s figures. And this isn’t the first time the prestigious Gallup survey has been out on a limb with pro-Bush findings.

What’s going on here? It’s not exactly that Gallup’s cooking the books. Rather, they are refusing to fix a longstanding problem with their likely voter methodology.

Simply put, Gallup’s methodology has predicted lately that Republican turnout on Election Day is likely to exceed Democrats’ by six to eight percentage point. But exit polls show otherwise: in each of the last two Presidential elections, Democratic turnout exceeded Republican by four to five points. That discrepancy alone can account for nearly all of Bush’s phantom 14-point lead.

This is more than just a numbers game. Poll results profoundly affect a campaign’s news coverage as well as the public’s perception of the candidates.

Two media outlets, CNN and USA Today, bear special responsibility for this problem. They pay for many of Gallup’s surveys, in exchange for the right to add their names to the polls and trumpet the results first. They wind up acting as unquestioning promotional partners, rather than as critical journalists. The public would be better served if journalists asked some tough questions, beginning with the Gallup Organization, which has been asked to select the audience for the Bush-Kerry “town meeting” debate on October 8.

George Gallup Jr., son of the poll’s founder, was the longtime head of the company and now directs its non-profit research center. Why hasn’t he pushed for an update of the company’s likely voter modeling, which his own father pioneered in the 1950s?

Gallup, who is a devout evangelical Christian, has been quoted as calling his polling “a kind of ministry.” And a few months ago, he said “the most profound purpose of polls is to see how people are responding to God.”

We thought the purpose is to faithfully and factually report public opinion.

I just hope that this is a good expenditure of resources. Posting a full page ad in the NY Times is mega-pricey

Go MoveOn!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Idiot on defending Gallups position...

Gee, how nice of them. Did they have a MoveOn rep there to rebut the rebut? (Not holding my breath.)

It's good to see that Gallup has become the story, at least for the moment.

Frank Newport says the ad has more misstatements of fact.

What does Gallup's religion have to do with it?

Methodology is just fine.

We never predict.

Yadayadayada...

Scary the Fundies are subverting much of our American mindset.

Uplifting that there many groups like MoveOn.org to fight the mind control of the apocalyptic right.

Some other great groups fighting for freedom of thought:
http://www.au.org
http://www.pfaw.org
http://aclu.org/


"During almost fifteen centuries has the legal establishment of Christianity been on trial. What has been its fruits? More or less, in all places, pride and indolence in the clergy; ignorance and servility in the laity; in both, superstition, bigotry and persecution."
-- James Madison


http://groups.yahoo.com/group/PaganWarrior/

What are your sampling percentages of Rep's, Dem's Ind's.

Simple question. Simple answer. Would clear a lot up.

But we won't be discussing that today.

good idea!

Galluping to the Right.

Beautiful.

I had NO idea Gallup was a Evangelist (aka nutjob). Major props to Move On for this page by. This is what we need more of, it comes off as very clear in it's explanation and tells it like it is!

Thanks for the post!:toast:

Thank God for Move On. We have to keep giving them money!

Give a unquestioned speech. She asked him no questions whatsoever, proving the point in the Gallup ad! He also claimed that his polling has proven correct in the last elections. I know I've seen this disputed on DU.

I just realized why this so plays to Bush lovers.

Because Kerry is so far down from * it gives them a rationale to discuss ad nauseum the faults of the Kerry campaign and Kerry himself.

Imagine if the Gallup had Kerry up by five points. What would dear Judy say?

What can the Bush campaign do to pull this out? Could it be their war based on false imformation and fear mongering is not working with the American people?

Oh no she'd never say that either. But it would be interesting to hear one damn good thing said about Kerry and his campaign just one frigging time.

Apparently, people like John Kerry. Some people say that fear mongering turns them off. There are questions today that maybe Rove has gone too far, and is too outside the mainstream.

Oh, I'm dreaming.

She and the rest of the Media must be held accountable for their treasonous activities, as soon as the American people take back their country.

.
every other poll?

Did any of the idiots explain how Gallup did in calling the election in 2000?

Bet not.

Someone on from Move On to discuss??? Are you mad? Judy sneered, "Move On a political action group that is Pro-Kerry" before she went to Mr. Gallup who basically just stated everything we say is true, so there. And also stated that HIS poll is in line with all the polls giving * a 6-8% lead.

thanks for sharing

2000 election? In October 2000, right before the election, Gallup showed Bush up by 1-2 points. Was Gallup sampling a larger percentage of republican voters then?

I remembered that Gallup had Bush leading Gore in 2000, but I didn't realize it was by that much. Thanks, robbedvoter.

Moveon is a great great great group of people. What a beautifully written, hard headed perfect piece to SHAME these fuckers into stopping their blatant lying crap.

Amazingly good stuff.

Finally, someone is pointing out the flaws in Gallup. Its too bad that moveon had to spend valuable $$$ to point out this BS.

The state media will never report the truth. Thank God for MoveOn.

Iv'e been ranting about why noone is taking on these fuckers for weeks- thank you, thank you, thank you moveon.org. They just got some more money out of me.

jobs for them.

With the just one of the millions they have they could come up with a positive poll for Kerry that smokes this Gallup poll. Why complain when they could campaign?