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9/29 ELECTION MODEL: KERRY 294 EV, 85% WIN PROB, 50.65% POP. VOTE

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-29-04 12:42 PM
Original message
9/29 ELECTION MODEL: KERRY 294 EV, 85% WIN PROB, 50.65% POP. VOTE
Trust the Independents (the Pro's)
Toss Gallup and the rest of the Ho's.

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/
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JHBowden Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-29-04 12:54 PM
Response to Original message
1. Iowa and Wisconsin aren't in the Kerry column right now.
Neither are Florida nor Ohio. Kerry needs to win Iowa and Wisconsin, plus Florida and/or Ohio to win.
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DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-29-04 12:58 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. not quite...
If Kerry wins all the blue states plus OH or FL he can lose IA or WI but not both...
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-29-04 01:06 PM
Response to Reply #1
3. Zogby says so. Trust Zogby.
tia
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snoogins Donating Member (63 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-29-04 01:16 PM
Response to Original message
4. zogby is a bush whore nt
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DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-29-04 01:19 PM
Response to Reply #4
5. no he isn't (nt)
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blue neen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-29-04 01:27 PM
Response to Original message
6. Thanks TIA.
These numbers look good. Kerry is definitely making some inroads now.
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DeepModem Mom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-29-04 02:05 PM
Response to Original message
7. Thanks, TIA, as always!
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-29-04 06:14 PM
Response to Reply #7
8. Thank you! I'll keep them coming. They will only get better from here.
Edited on Wed Sep-29-04 06:16 PM by TruthIsAll
Bush has seen his top, Kerry has seen his low.

Check out the Kerry rebound in the state polls since 9/14. The Monte Carlo simulation win probability hit a Kerry low of 14%, but now he's at 85% and he's supposed to be BEHIND.

He WILL win at least 66% of the undecided vote, which may be as much as 10-20%. I assume, conservatively, that he'll win 60% as my base case.

Kerry is holding his own among the independent pollsters.

Even the corporates are coming back to reality (Newsweek, Time, etc.)

Watch Kerry close the deal.
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