Slate: ElectionScorecard 9/30 * 335 Electoral Votes Kerry 203

The most out of whack prediction I have seen yet.

Don't shoot the messenger, shoot Slate

http://slate.msn.com/id/2106527/

"Analysis Sept. 30: Terrific news for Bush. His average lead in national polls continues to rise. Surveys begun within the last week show margins of 6, 6, 8, and 10, for an average of 7.5. Gallup, which had him up 3 in Florida, now gives him a lead of 9 there, outside the margin of error. Gallup also puts him up 3 points in Pennsylvania; three other recent polls had Kerry leading narrowly there. Kerry's lead in New Jersey is down to 1 point. Silver lining for Kerry: He's down just 2 in Ohio, better than the 4-point deficit in the previous sampling by a different pollster."

they are relying on Gallup polls... *sigh*

STOP PAYING ATTENTION TO THE FUCKING POLLS!!!

You know for a fact that they're slanted and WRONG.

I am not willing to concede that in total they are biased and if they are biaed the biases even each other out...


Only the most partisan Dem would say that if the election was today Kerry would win



but the election isn't today....

all around

For the sake of comity on this board I'll exclude Gallup... As someone who has done post grad work in Political Science I'll say they are wrong not evil...


Even Zogby, who nailed 96 and 00 and who is the favorite of this board has Kerry down 3% in the horse race.


Given these national horse race results it's no shock that Kerry is behind in the Electoral College as the Electoral College usually but not always follows the national popular vote total....


So where are we?


Kerry is behind by a small but not insignificant margin... Bush's lead is not insurmountable but it looks more and more likely that whoever wins two of the following states, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida will be our next president...

Florida is solid Chimp; Pennsylvania and Ohio are leaning Chimp.

God, this is beginning to seem oddly familiar, like a nightmare I once had, only real.

I hadn't heard that FL & PA were solid chimp. I read yesterday morning that Kerry was ahead in PA and that FL was a tossup.

Other polls have Kerry up slightly in PA and tied in FL.

Pennsylvania is leaning Kerry...


IMHO Ohio is more winnable than Florida....


I live in Florida and you get the feeling Bush will carry Florida...
Florida has always been a Republican leaning state at the national level...Clinton carried it once and Carter carried it once. Before that you need to go back to LBJ....


Florida is changing demographically but not fast enough and the Republicans are minimizing their losses among Hispanics by co opting non-Cuban Hispanics...

3 out of 3 means a lock

Kerry would win if the election were held today. Polls DO NOT ACCOUNT FOR VOTER TURN OUT! New voter registration for Democrats is 150-200% higher than that of Republicans, setting records in just about every state.

And polls are the best indicator we have....

I am aware of Democratic registration gains.... But putting on my analyst's hat and taking off my partisan's hat I think * is in better electoral shape now....


I doubt even Terry McAuliffe believes if the election was tomorrow we would win but I'll say again the election isn't tomorrow...

If you average all the polls Bush has a lead of four to six percentage points...


www.pollingreport.com


Even Zogby who nailed 96 and 00 has it a three point race for Bush....


As for being an "analyst" I have actually done post grad work in Political Science and that makes me more informed than most of the gasbags on tv...

The big story that the media refuses to cover in their overt efforts to support Bush, is that there has been very significant erosion in Bush's base. Millions of republicans, most notably conservatives, are furious with him for, among many reasons, his reckless spending and that he lied his way into the Iraq quagmire.

You can see this on Free Republic. There is a night and day difference in the level of enthusiasm between 2000 and 2004. Only the rabid BushBots are excited about the Chimp's election prospects. Most of the rest fall into 2 camps: the "Dismayed" that will hold their nose and vote for Bush and the "Enraged" that will vote for "anybody but Bush". While there is more of the former, the general sentiment within the rank and file is not constructive for a strong Voter Turnout for Bush election day.

There was a saying on Free Republic in 2000 that was quite popular: "Broken Glass Republican"--republicans that would crawl through miles of broken glass to vote for Bush. That is all but gone today.

This will play out IMO in a lower voter turn out on election day for Bush when a lot of republicans decide they simply have other things to do than vote for a guy they really don't relate to or like.

Polls cant possibly accoutn for voter turnout until the final week or two. From what I have read, pollsters in general don't believe you can accurately question 'how likely are you to vote' until the final week.

slate is going the way of the media whores by suckling at the Moonie/Shrub/Halliburton/Fundie right teat by using those Refucklicans at Gallup.


Id trust a steaming pile of shit over Gallup

Florida and Colorado are solid Bush???

MN and NH are even but they put them in Bush column.

AR, IA, NV, NM, WV, PA, OH, VA, NC, and ME all close Bush...

Something tells me that some of those will be in Kerry's column election nite.

They have Bush leading in PA when every other recent poll gives Kerry a small lead. And there's no way he's up 9 in Florida.

As for national surveys, Slate forgot Democracy Corps, which has Bush up 3; the Economist, which has a tie; and the L.A. Times, which has Bush up 4 among RVs.

and magnifies it....

There's no getting around it.... Bush has a small lead... If the election was today he would probably win but the election isn't today....


Not you but others shouldn't panic just yet....


It's the beginning of the fourth quater and we're down 17-10...

The game's far from over....

Now, if this was November 1 I'd be concerned...

Gallup's state and national polls make it seem bigger than it is. I'm with you on saying Kerry is far from finished, that there's enough time to turn this around.

I'll be suprised if the winner wins by more than two or three percent...


Well, I'll be devestated if Kerry loses but I root with my heart and think with my head....


I have favorite sports teams... I root for them regardless of their opponents but betting on them is another matter...


I am suprised with the results from New Jersey, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa.... Those states should be firmly in Kerry's camp... Minnesota hasn't gone Republican since 1972... It didn't hurt that there was a Minnesotan on the ticket in 76, 80, and 84...
Wisconsin and Iowa? went for the Duke in 88... Maybe there are deomographic shifts I am unaware of...

someone who knows what they are talking about...

ENOUGH with the GALLUP!!

but unfortunately they nailed the midterms... I hope that's not a harbinger....


On the bright side they were wrong in 00 and their track record at the presidential level is mediocre....