Florida Democrats added 61,208 to the rolls in August

Republicans added 46,944.

<http://election.dos.state.fl.us/voterreg/vrReportArchives/2004/August/Net.pdf>

there will be 208 left. :grr:

or will Glenda the bad witch disqualify them for being democrats? My guess would be that few of them will actually be registered. I think that Florida is already lost, due to all of the fraudulent shenanigans that are taking place already.

Broward registered more than twice as many democrat. Dade registered 2000 more democrats and Palm Beach registered almost 4 times as many democrats as republicans. I hope they have their election day forces in order. There is going to be major voter supression happening there.

a republican stronghold and the dem registration outpaced the repubs by 2000!

Since then there have been many more to register.

In Palm Beach Co., I haven't seen many B/C yard signs or bumper stickers and just a scattering of K/E.

We are definitely beating the GOP late in the game, and no one can discount the possibility a registration advantage could be the difference in another Florida photo finish. However, the impact of our registration drive is wildly overstated. Kerry can make more strides with one debate performance than all registration workers put together the entire year, particularly in high populus states.

Consider these numbers along with the 270,000+ new Republican registers in Florida from 2000 until August and the 264,000+ newly registered Democrats over the same period. It gives us an approximate 8000 net edge in newly registered since 2000, at the end of August. Frankly, among those voters it is very possible we will LOSE net votes. Republicans vote Republican in consistently greater percentage than Democrats vote Democratic, particularly for president. In Florida it is likely to be 2-4% net betrayal in favor of the GOP this year.

Our registration frenzy is remarkable and admirable and proof of great passion and sacrifice. It is absolutely necessary to get more people involved on our side for the long term and nullify the GOP registration strides among Christian conservatives, etc. But we are kidding ourselves if, heaven forbid, we look at late polls indicating a 2-4% Bush lead and insist our registration numbers can overcome that on their own.

In FLorida we're not beating them but in places like Ohio and North Carolina we definitely are.

Gallup had Bush winning by double digits in the final week of 2000, btw.

It's final poll had Bush by 2%.

Actually, i think most polls had Gore losing in the final week.

Registered Republicans will vote in greater percentage for Bush than registered Democrats will support Kerry. There is no historical or current data to suggest otherwise. A 1/1 registration figure is going to favor them in virtually every state.

Based on 2000, correct, the polls erred in Bush's favor. I believe we can count on that again but not nearly as concrete. The very late reliable polls in 2000 caught Gore's surge. Of course, he was never behind by the estimates of the looney polls.

In 1996 most late polls overstated Clinton's advantage, some by considerable margin. Admittedly different dynamics in a lopsided race, but not something we can dismiss completely. In 2002, of course, the final polls also underestimated GOP support, especially in key senate races.

I want the goddamn lead, is what I'm saying.

the swing state polls are all over the place (ok that sounds dumb, huh?). some days Kerry lead, some days Bush. it fucks with your mind.

We seem to be ahead in the new FL and OH ones.

would like to know where to get such numbers. Where do people find this information?

The 270,000 newly registered Republicans to 264,000 newly registered Democrats in Florida since 2000 until this August came from an article in the Miami Herald a few days ago. http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/news/front/9829332.htm

"Statistics from the Florida secretary of state's website suggest Rove is right: Since 2000, Republicans have added 270,192 voters to the rolls, as of August. Democrats added 264,762 in the same time."

That Republicans vote more Republican than Democrats vote Democratic is a longstanding trend, and not just in the DINO states, which can be absurd, with defections of 20-30% of so-called Democrats. I would suggest you go to the current state polls at American Research group and check out the partisan breakdown of the polls. Even now, with Democratic fury to oust Bush, the numbers suggest Bush will get a higher percentage of Republicans than Kerry will claim among Democrats, including the swing states. http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/ec2004/

I hypothesize that Democratic registrants today are likely to be more loyal to Democratic candidates than longtime Democratic registrants, particularly in the south (including Florida). I think the Democrats' overall greater tendency to cross over, at least in the south, is partly a function of white southern conservatives who remain Democrats in name only. I would think today's Democratic registrants are people who identify with the modern Democratic Party more so than people who registered to vote a generation ago.

I'm open to contrary arguments or even to being proven wrong, if data supports the contrary.

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

The most recent Florida poll at American Research Group.com lists 8% of Republicans preferring Kerry and 9% of Democrats favoring Bush, a net loss of just 1%. However, that's actually more evidence of Republicans switching to Kerry in greater number than normal, than Kerry holding an unusual percentage of Democrats. Nine percent of Democrats voting Republican is fairly typical for a state like Florida

Subjectively, I agree current dynamics and partisanship should cut our losses among registered Democrats. But I have hypothesized that before, as recently as 2002, and been incorrect. I wasn't even counting the DINO states in my numbers. They can be ridiculous. If you look at the state polls at American Research Group.com http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/ec2004/, notice the 20-30% "Democrats" who prefer Bush in states like Oklahoma, Louisiana and even West Virginia. The latest West Virginia poll had 21% defecting to Bush, the primary reason that state left our camp in 2000 and perhaps this year.

and you take into account that Florida has 4.1 million registered Dems vs. 3.7 million registers Reps, that gives us an advantage of a few hundred thousand votes. And if we can get at least half of the Independent vote (which you haven't mentioned in your posts above, that I've noticed), get out the vote efforts will assure our victory in Florida.

Some people would piss if the polls came out 80-20 tomorrow. It's just their nature.

Have Excel spreadsheets flooded with them, and relation to actual. State and national. Hundreds of formulas analyzing population trends, voting trends, partisan trends. I have analyzed election results by each state over a dozen years to identify how they tend to differ from final poll average, and come up with a PAN or Partisan Adjustment Number for each state. In Georgia, for example, the statewide polls average 4.5% more Democratic than reality.

I notice few people, if any, ever challenge my numbers or related assertions directly. They merely throw out a lame subjective denial and run away. Congratulations, sandnsea.

And this is unchartered territory. There's no election in our history that compares to this one. That's why nobody is paying attention to your numbers.

Alachua is the home of U of Florida. Looks like the students were allowed to register this year. Gainesville is like a blue oasis in a desert of red in the rest of the county.

Duval (Jacksonville) had lots of voter fraud in 2000, but didn't get much publicity. It is very conservative area.

And I'll be serving up a butt load of deep fried crow to all the defeatist "we can't win...we can't win cuz big bad Jebby is the boogey man" crowd.

Grow some balls. All of you. Fucking embarassing.

Voter registration process causes concern
Alleged irregularities in several counties are being probed.

By Dara Kam

Special to The Palm Beach Post

Thursday, October 07, 2004

TALLAHASSEE — Law enforcement officials are investigating voter registration irregularities in at least three counties in Florida, and election supervisors fear that the problem is so widespread it could lead to massive confusion on Election Day.

Third-party groups, including tax-exempt organizations known as 527s that engage in political activity, have been conducting voter mobilization drives in an attempt to persuade new or apathetic voters to turn out in support of their causes — mostly Democratic — on Nov. 2.

But problems with the applications, already reported to authorities in Miami-Dade, Duval, Monroe, Leon, Hillsborough and Pinellas counties, could result in people who thought they had registered showing up at the polls only to discover they aren't eligible to vote.

Officials are investigating in Miami-Dade, Leon and Pinellas counties.

Of the forms collected by the voter mobilization groups, many are incomplete, have suspicious signatures or may have been forged, elections officials said Wednesday....................
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/content/news/epaper/2004/10/07/m1a_elections_1007.html