Will California be "in play" in November?

Duke Newcombe

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Sun Jun-29-08 10:40 PM
Original message

Will California be "in play" in November?

The state went huge for Hillary during the Primaries. With the resistance from some HRC supporters have been showing Obama, do you think that we could be up for grabs between Obama and McCain in November? If so why? If not, why not?

Duke

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mitchtv

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Sun Jun-29-08 10:49 PM
Response to Original message

1. I don't think so, That being said there are potential pitfalls

with both Latinos and GLBT, both reliable Dem votes. Gays will want a strong public denunciation of prop8 from a man "who believes in different sex marriage", and Latinos, from what I hear from my in laws are recalcitrant voters owing to largely LA politics which extend far beyond LA. The margin might not be as large as it could be.

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melody

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Mon Jun-30-08 09:51 AM
Response to Reply #1

6. So they'll vote for McCain, is that what you're saying?

An anti-GLBT and anti-minority candidate?

There is no way on earth that real Democrats will let this monster anywhere near the football.

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Duke Newcombe

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Mon Jun-30-08 10:45 AM
Response to Reply #6

8. And yet, there are more than Democrats voting in this election.

If the Republican voters either (a) don't stay home because of their disaffection with McCain, or (b) fail to split their votes amound McCain, Barr, and Obama, this race in California could be too close for my comfort.

And the Log Cabin Republicans don't think Republican candidates are too yucky to vote for, so being a member of a certain consitituency doesn't negate party affiliation.

Tom Bradley though he had it in the bag, too.

Duke

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mitchtv

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Mon Jun-30-08 01:59 PM
Response to Reply #6

16. Did I say that?

What I said , or meant to say was that there is ample room for Sen Obama to improve his numbers in Calif. The Mormons and catholics all anti gay, will be out in force to support prop 8. Mccain will hitch his wagon to #8 and drag along many anti gay Latinos and repukes. Sen Obama must come out againts prop 8 if he wants enthusiastic support from LGBT.

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SidneyCarton

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Mon Jun-30-08 05:07 PM
Response to Reply #16

17. I'm a Mormon and will be voting for Obama in November,

Beware of generalities, I know Mormon Liberals are as rare as honest Republicans, but they do exist.

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mitchtv

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Mon Jun-30-08 10:09 PM
Response to Reply #17

19. there is an organized effort on the part of your church to pass #8

generally speaking LDS is virulently anti gay and that's no lie. from their memo to pass prop 8 to their support of a bigoted BSA

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SidneyCarton

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Mon Jun-30-08 10:35 PM
Response to Reply #19

20. Indeed, which poses no small dilemma for me on November 5...

Will I deny my faith or my political principles? Nevertheless, I am a practicing Mormon, who will be voting for Obama, regardless of Proposition 8.

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mitchtv

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Mon Jun-30-08 10:52 PM
Response to Reply #20

21. be a fucking American won't you?

VOTE NO ON 8. The constitution is not meant to exclude people

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SidneyCarton

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Mon Jun-30-08 11:03 PM
Response to Reply #21

22. A fucking american?

In contrast to what, a celibate American? The Constitution is indeed not meant to exclude people, however the last time I checked the Constitution is not meant to define what marriage is either. This isn't homophobia, (though there are a fair number of homophobes in my faith, like many others.) Support for this issue is a way of being counted on an issue that continues to pop up. In honesty, I hope 8 won't pass, but either way, this will end up being a federal issue, because the moment these happy couples cross the border into Arizona or Nevada, the effectively cease to be married, a state that continues until they make it to Massachusetts.

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mitchtv

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Tue Jul-01-08 02:04 PM
Response to Reply #22

24. Nor is it up to LDS to define marriage for US citizens

I pay my taxes as much if not more per capita than most strates freedom of religion is trumped by my right to equal treatment under the lawdom of religion should in no way be defined to allow freedom of discrimination. What church heirarchy says has no validity beyond their doors in a civil society.The LDS are in no way in a position to tell me about what should be. typically hypocritical religionists .

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SidneyCarton

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Tue Jul-01-08 03:20 PM
Response to Reply #24

25. And yet members of religious groups are allowed to vote nonetheless

And at times we carry over our values into the political arena. I agree with you that my religion should not determine the civil law of the land. Furthermore, I understand that from the secular (and rightfully so) position of the government, there is no reason to deny same-sex couples the right to marry.

We will not end up agreeing on this issue, but in a way it is designed for this purpose. It is the perfect wedge issue, one that brooks no discussion and allows no nuance, you either support it or oppose it, and depending on what camp you're in, you are either the hero or the villain. It seems that here I end up being the villain. So be it, I will vote for Obama anyway, and if the nature of the California electorate has changed as much as you likely hope it has, this measure will go down to inglorious defeat, and we can all get back to the business of actually getting our state to avoid bankruptcy and ruin.

In other words, peace and good luck to you.

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mitchtv

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Tue Jul-01-08 03:56 PM
Response to Reply #25

27. thanks and just remember

If the South had been allowed to vote on slavery, where we'd be

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laugle

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Tue Jul-15-08 07:48 PM
Response to Reply #17

32. What if McCain picks Romney? Will you feel the same then? nt

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SidneyCarton

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Wed Jul-16-08 01:38 PM
Response to Reply #32

35. I wouldn't vote for Romney if the Dems were running Satan.

That man reversed every position he could to get into the fundie's good graces. The only thing he had left to do was deny the faith.

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melody

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Sun Jun-29-08 10:54 PM
Response to Original message

2. You're joking, right?

The last poll showed Obama substantially ahead. No matter what the GOP may like to think (and mention a lot),
California is solidly blue. Latinos obviously are leaning heavily toward Obama. It's not a question of old-style
GOP and Democrats any longer -- it's a question of insane people and sane people. The modern GOP is batshit crazy
as is anyone who follows them.

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Duke Newcombe

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Sun Jun-29-08 11:22 PM
Response to Reply #2

3. Not joking in the least...

Besides the coalitions you mention, there are other voters with concerns, fears, and views.

And I don't need to mention to you the difference between polling support and votes do I? If you don't know where I'm coming from, perhaps you can read about this fellow.

Duke

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trashcanistanista

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Mon Jun-30-08 01:48 AM
Response to Reply #3

4. I'm going to echo a strong no. California is solid blue.

There has been a huge increase in registered voters, mostly democratic. I am in a red district and Obama is getting support here from both sides. There is a very active Obama group. If we have massive voter turn out, which is expected, and the young people show up which I think they will, Obama will easily win California. Also, Californian's are hurting economically and blame it on *. We pay the highest for gas, are second or third in foreclosures, and we were screwed by Enron, not too long ago. People have had enough. We have gay marriage so that will not be an issue here. Latinos will vote democratic.

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melody

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Mon Jun-30-08 09:50 AM
Response to Reply #3

5. Keep dreaming, Duke

Not gonna happen. I know the GOP is wishing on a star that they'll be able to topple "that black guy" but it's NOT happening.
But don't let go of your dreams. At this point, it's all you have.

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Duke Newcombe

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Mon Jun-30-08 10:49 AM
Response to Reply #5

10. Ummm...not sure I understand

What are you saying here?

Duke

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melody

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Mon Jun-30-08 11:40 AM
Response to Reply #10

13. Oh, I think that's obvious

Welcome to my ignore list.

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Duke Newcombe

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Mon Jun-30-08 11:42 AM
Response to Reply #13

14. If it were, I wouldn't have asked, but enjoy your Brigadoon anyways. n/t

Edited on Mon Jun-30-08 11:43 AM by Duke Newcombe

Duke

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LeftyMom

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Mon Jun-30-08 10:27 AM
Response to Original message

7. No.

Next question?

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Duke Newcombe

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Mon Jun-30-08 10:46 AM
Response to Reply #7

9. Tortoise. Hare. 'Nuff said. n/t

Duke

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LeftyMom

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Mon Jun-30-08 11:03 AM
Response to Reply #9

11. You're awfully determined to think CA is in play for McCain. Why is that?

The evidence doesn't suggest that it is, so it must be wishful thinking.

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Duke Newcombe

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Mon Jun-30-08 11:11 AM
Response to Reply #11

12. Before we continue another post...

Edited on Mon Jun-30-08 11:45 AM by Duke Newcombe

...be extremely careful about stating what you believe I'm "determined" to think.

Secondly, does the name "Tom Bradley" mean anything to you? When you've researched that, get back to me.

Damn, people here have amnesia!!

Duke

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Greyskye

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Mon Jun-30-08 12:01 PM
Response to Original message

15. Your 'concern' is noted

Where in CA do you live, just out of curiosity?

It's only anecdotal, but even the republican ditto-heads that I work with, (with which whom I've been debating politics for the past 8 years) can't stand McLame and refuse to vote for him. They also hate Hillary with a passion, but are so far fairly ambivalent towards Obama.

And post-primary polls show a huge margin of support for Obama from both former Hillary supporters and the Hispanic community.

Even heavily republican dominated Congressional District 4 has a very good chance of going Democratic, with Charlie Brown potentially winning John Doolittle's old job.

CA going for McLame? Ain't happening.

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Duke Newcombe

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Mon Jun-30-08 09:42 PM
Response to Reply #15

18. From Central California...

Home of some of the best (and more conservative, granted) Democrats, and the most squishy Republicans.

And thanks for trying to throw the "concern troll" card. Nice discussion ender--eliminates all that, you know...messy work like, oh, ACTUALLY THINKING ABOUT IDEAS.

Duke

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Beaverhausen

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Tue Jul-01-08 12:09 AM
Response to Original message

23. I think it depends on how strong the 'anti-gay marriage amendment" lobby is

If the right can get their base out with that issue, it might be in play to a small degree.

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XemaSab

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Tue Jul-01-08 05:34 PM
Response to Reply #23

28. My suspicion is that most people in the center will be totally over it by then

The right just doesn't have the numbers to push something like that without the center, and I think/hope that after 6 months of gay marriage, it won't have the XOMG factor that the previous initiative had. :shrug:

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Irishonly

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Tue Jul-01-08 03:41 PM
Response to Original message

26. I Think McCain and the repukes are fantasizing it is

There will be a strong push to get out to vote to pass the amendment to the Constitution. I haven't heard about if the courts have ruled if it can stay on the ballot. As for usual, the repukes are hoping the bigots and homophobes turn out in November.

I can't imagine Ca will be in play but I don't think we can take it for granted.

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Greyskye

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Mon Jul-07-08 01:57 PM
Response to Original message

29. Not according to this:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080707/ap_on_el_pr/mccain_california

John McCain is starting a California campaign that might already be over.

The Arizona senator boasts that he can win California's 55 electoral votes, the biggest prize on Nov. 4, but he's running as the Republican successor to GOP President George Bush, whose approval rating is at an all-time low in the state. Three of four voters say the nation is on the wrong track, and McCain's opposition to abortion rights and his support for the Iraq war and offshore drilling leave him out of step with a potentially decisive swath of Californians.

A Republican hasn't carried the state in a presidential contest in two decades, and Al Gore and John Kerry notched double-digit victories here. Democratic voter registration is inching up, while the Republican slice of the electorate is shrinking. The growing ranks of Hispanic voters — possibly 20 percent of the California vote this November — tilt Democratic.

The numbers are so daunting for a Republican that Bush didn't bother to contest the state in 2004.

Much more at the link.

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Kerrytravelers

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Tue Jul-08-08 02:28 PM
Response to Original message

30. No. California is huge for Obama.

Everything will be fine.

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Beaverhausen

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Thu Jul-10-08 07:54 PM
Response to Original message

31. He opened several offices here this week

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25572959/

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proud patriot

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Tue Jul-15-08 08:38 PM
Response to Original message

33. I see lots of obama stickers

and on the other side I've seen some ron paul stickers :shrug:

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VADem11

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Wed Jul-16-08 11:11 AM
Response to Original message

34. Nope

The latest Field Poll has Obama up by 24 points and HRC supporters backing Obama big.

http://field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers/Rls2276.pdf

I'd love to have McSame waste some money though.

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OnionPatch

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Thu Jul-17-08 06:40 PM
Response to Original message

36. You're kidding, right?

Every Hillary supporter I know here is enthusiastically supporting Obama now. Californians aren't stupid.

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CreekDog

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Tue Jul-22-08 06:33 AM
Response to Original message

37. Obama has a 24 point lead in the latest Field Poll (most respected) here

are you even following the news these days? :banghead:

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