2008 Election Forecast: Dems Have Georgia on Their Minds but GOP Remains Strong

2008 Election Forecast: Dems Have Georgia on Their Minds but GOP Remains Strong

By Rachel Kapochunas, CQ Staff

CQ Politics Presidential Race Rating: Republican Favored

Electoral Votes: 15


Georgia was once the Southern state most resistant to the region’s Republican trend — it was the only state, for example, that never elected a Republican governor in the 20th century. But when the shift came, it was dramatic. John McCain is favored to win the state in the wake of five Republican victories, most by wide margins, in the past six presidential elections, along with Republican takeover victories in recent elections by Saxby Chambliss and Johnny Isakson for the Senate and Sonny Perdue for governor.

Georgia’s overall conservative lean is a clear asset for the Republican nominee. “McCain’s greatest strength is that this has become a fairly red state,” said University of Georgia political scientist Charles S. Bullock III.

Yet there are some factors — including the likelihood of a strong turnout for Barack Obama among the state’s large black constituency, the hesitant embrace of Republican “maverick” McCain by the state’s large population of religious conservatives and the Libertarian candidacy of Georgia’s former Rep. Bob Barr — that have Republicans watching cautiously for signs that the contest in Georgia could become more competitive than expected

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