Surprise brewing in Governor's race? Howey Politics Indiana

By BRIAN A. HOWEY

INDIANAPOLIS - The political ghosts of Bart Peterson and Ann Richards hover above the finely orchestrated re-election campaign of Gov. Mitch Daniels. And another out-sized Texas personality - George W. Bush - could be creating the conditions of a potential upset of extraordinary magnitude.

Three recent Indiana polls - two by the same company, Research2000 - now suggest that the Indiana governor’s race is headed for dead heat territory. The latest WISH-TV/Research2000 poll showed Daniels with a narrow 49-45 percent lead. It came on the heels of the South Bend Tribune/WSBT poll a week ago by the same firm that showed Daniels leading 47-46 percent. The Indianapolis Star/WTHR-TV/Selzer Poll two weeks ago had Daniels up 46-42 percent. These poll contrasted with similar polls taken at similar times by Public Opinion Research and Rasmussen Tracking that supported the summer-long trend of a double-digit Daniels lead. Our analysis last week was that the Selzer and Research2000 polls left out important support data such as key demographics, right/wrong track numbers and voter approval and ID numbers.

Some of those blanks began to fill in with the WISH-TV poll that showed Daniels fav/unfavs at 49-39 percent while Thompson’s stood at 48/34 percent. This compares with the August 29-30 Howey/Gauge numbers that had Daniels at 56/28 percent and Thompson at 32/19.

All of this brings back memories of two elections - 2007 and 1994 - when personally popular and successful incumbents were swept out of office out by events that overwhelmed their campaigns. In 2007, Indianapolis Mayor Bart Peterson had a 10 to 1 money advantage over Greg Ballard, who wasn’t able to run TV ads until the final two weeks of the campaign. But in running his TV ads throughout the summer, Peterson appeared tone deaf with the property tax crisis and lost by 5 percent in what was then described as one of the most stunning upsets in Hoosier history.

http://www.howeypolitics.com/2008/10/09/jlts-bizarre-opportunity/

Thompson needs to remind Daniels that in 200,000 homes in
Indiana the unemployment rate is NOT 5.6 or 6.5% it is 50% and
100% and that tragedy is growing daily under this administration.
Further, the idea of privatizing the operation of the lottery could
place the auto excise tax credit in jeopardy and we could be looking at
$400 and $500 automobile registrations again under such an arrangement.
The Daniel's administration's programs are rampant with negative
unintended consequences masked behind a promotion campaign that
one could compare to the 30 second sales pitches of "Billy Mays"
Sell the product and the consequences be damned.