The problem with Nevada

I live "up here" in the Reno/Sparks/Carson area. As any Nevadan political junkie could tell you, in 2004 the basic strategy was to hold the Vegas area's Democratic advantage, pump up the Democratic turnout in Washoe (mostly Reno/Sparks) so as to limit the traditional Republican edge there, and try and not do too badly in the so-called cow counties. But after the dust of the 2004 elections had settled, it turned out that this state in the end had gone red mostly because of weak Democratic voter turnout in Clark County, the place that was slated to put Kerry over the top, compensating the Republican votes in the other 16 counties. Maybe a consequence of overconfidence? Maybe in conjunction with plain laziness? Either way, that was then, and this is now.

But here's something that I found out a few days ago, and am now sharing here for public consumption and deliberation: it looks like things haven't changed that much.

First a generic remark: in spite of the relatively comforting proportion of registered voters who voted (close to 77%), Nevadans are overall damn apathetic voters. Of all citizens eligible to vote, only 51.3% (!) exercised their right to vote in November 2004. That's low enough to be the nation's fourth-lowest, only ahead of Texas, California, and Hawaii. For a "battle state" that's an appalling turn-out. The national weighted average was 61.3% for 2004, in case you wondered. And here's one source, for the really curious.

Oh yeah: it's probably also useful for non-Nevadans to know that Clark County accounts for well over 70% of Nevada's citizens.

So, what about the situation now? To get an impression, I looked at the participation in MoveOn's "Virtual March Against Escalation" (in Iraq). And I was completely taken aback by the different results for Clark County and "the rest". I took the following two screen shots, to point out the difference. Have a look and see the difference in participation:





See that? The calls from "the rest of the state" (mostly from the Northwest, I suspect) more than doubles the number of calls made by people in (basically) Las Vegas. Keeping in mind the proportion of Vegas' population statewide, and its general Democratic leaning, that's a rather amazing fact. Of course, it's only useful as a very rough indicator, but it's right there, staring us in the face. And it's significant enough to sit up and pay attention. That's why I'm convinced that today, it's still true that "we" Democrats up here in the Northwest are generally far, far more motivated to get up, get out and do stuff than that enormously larger contingent in Vegas (and surrounding area).

As I said at the beginning: it looks like things haven't changed that much. Time to get really, really busy down there... The sooner, the better.

I have no idea how many people signed up via MoveOn (there are several organizations taking part in the larger Americans Against Escalation in Iraq movement), but I do know they must have hit more than a million (because I saw Thursday evening on the counter of that MoveOn page that they passed the one million mark; the counter is gone now).

But just in case someone objects to the two screenshots because I've only showed district 1 (mostly Las Vegas proper) and district 2 (roughly, everything else in the state to the North of Vegas, with a demographic heavy center in the Northwest, especially the Carson / Reno / Sparks metro area) without mention of district 3, which is of course a fair point to make... Here are three screenshots I just made, including one for district 3 (roughly, the Southeastern corner of the state, practically everything to the Southeast of Las Vegas), and now also with arrows to clarify where to look, plus with the map zoomed in more on NV:







It's interesting to note that in the much less populated and relatively Republican-leaning district 3, people still outdid calls made from Democratic-leaning and much more populous Vegas.

Again, it's not a waterproof way of measuring citizen's willingness to participate in political action, but it sure as hell is indicative. And that image is deeply troubling.

I just now realized that I've been incredibly sloppy in my terminology above. Wherever I mention "populated" and worse: "populous", please know that I wrote that while really thinking of "population density". An enormous goof. My apologies.

As it is, the three current Congressional Districts (based on the 2000 census) have practically equally distributed population sizes: 666,088 persons in CD1, 666,087 in CD2, and 666,082 in CD3.

If you register Democrat in Vegas with someone who is helping you with the form, they just throw your registration in the garbage.

I still think that the "cow counties" shouldn't be abandoned by Democrats. The mining areas, like Elko are seeing the damage caused by lack of reasonable oversight. We've seen quite a few mineshaft accidents in recent years, mostly due to lack of oversite. Fallon has a pretty big leukemia cluster. There is so much measurable environmental damage and quantifiable health problems happening in these counties and if we would address the citizens and let them know we're on their side and let them know what we can do to help them, we wouldn't have to worry about needing Las Vegas to make up for the rest of the state. That isn't even including the possible dangers of Yucca. I tend to think that the Democratic Party of Nevada needs to take a look at Howard Dean's 50 state strategy and apply it to the entire state of Nevada. Writing off everything outside of Clark County is a plan for continued failures.

how do statistics hold up with the changing population?

Over 7000 persons move into Las Vegas metro every year - while only 3-5000 stay - it's virtually impossible to keep records current, let alone get persons to do something...

The voter registration papers are almost obsolete as soon as they are printed...

I did door-to-door canvassing and only 3 in 10 by my personal visits matched the records...

But go ahead, bash the south if it make you feel all superior and better - we here in LV "appreciate" your "work"... and comments - it makes us all want to work so hard on your behalf...

"But go ahead, bash the south if it make you feel all superior and better - we here in LV "appreciate" your "work"... and comments - it makes us all want to work so hard on your behalf..."

Hmmm...didn't see where this was a SoNev bash, but the following may be construed as such, though it pretty much mirrors Northern thought. Depends on how sensitive you are :-)

I would offer that more phone calls are made because of our extensive mine operations. We also have the fact that SoNev, in the interest of continued growth without sufficient water resources to keep those gorgeous fountains running, and those mega-resorts supplied with water, find it necessary to build a huge pipeline from the north to the south. THAT is generating beaucoup calls.

LV is growing out of control it would seem. Reno is doing the same thing. Developers are making a killing, and our pols are doing nothing about it. In fact, it would seem that some of them do quite well in real estate transactions going on around this state.

I hate to see this growth, to be honest. Nevada used to be one of the least populated states, next to Ak. and Wy. Sure was a lot more pleasant then.

and besides, we were asked to cut back 10-20% water usage - and we cut back over 50% despite having TWICE the population - do the math...

More and more "growth" here is smart growth - highrises instead of individual homes - result in much more efficient use of existing water supplies and less waste...

The growth thing is hard to fathom, I must confess - but we are no more a desert - dessert? - than Los Angeles or Phoenix, and are not growing NEARLY as fast or as much by a factor of 10 - yet I hear NOBODY criticizing those areas...