Analysis of 2004 House Races And What Could Happen In 2006

OK, here is a list of all the candidates who won and the margin that they won by:

(R) Ferguson - 16
(R) Garrett - 17
(D) Holt - 19
(R) Saxton - 28
(R) LoBiondo - 32
(R) Smith/(D)Rothman - 35
(D) Pallone - 36
(R) Frelinghuysen - 37
(D) Pascrell - 40
(D) Menendez - 44
(D) Andrews - 50
(D) Payne - 95

We can easily deduce that the 3 most vulnerable people are Ferguson, Garrett, and Holt. While Ferguson and Garrett are probably the worst Repukes in the delegation and could be a chance for a Democratic pickup next time, unfortunately, it looks like Holt could be vulnerable. I believe that we have a shot of winning those 2 seats and we should support wholeheartedly whoever goes up against Garrett and Ferguson (after all, Bush won't be able to bring them up on their coattails), but it looks like Holt could be vulnerable too, and if we are going to be treating the 5th and 7th like they could be in play, we should treat the 12th like it is too using this criteria.

Just giving my two cents

Rush Holt is not a lock in the 12th. He is doing a great job, but 'they' want that seat back. His support in the 12th is strong, but the redistricting hurt him a bit. A lot of the results he achieved in his earlier terms moved to the 4th. We know it and we can not relax. Rush does a good job walking the district, which helps. There were Bush visits in the district and the Bush state campaign was run out of Rumson.

Steve Brozak should run again in the 7th. Ferguson pulled away late in the race, but Steve put up a good fight and can win next time. Ferguson raised over $2.5 million, the second highest total by far, and outspent Brozak nearly 4 to 1. That makes it even more impressive. (Menendez raised $3.5, as a head start on a possible senate run.)

Chris Smith in the 4th isn't as strong as he appears. He basically ran unopposed this year. Amy Vazques was a very late entry and never a serious candidate. She raised less than $27,000 in an area that has been showing strong support for Dems. I'd really like to see what a good candidate can do in the 4th. Maybe not win, but put a scare into him.

Due to demographic changes in the 3rd district, he could be defeated if there is a strong enough candidate. I betcha as soon as he's out of there, we could have a Democrat representing us.

In fact, did you know that back in 2000, Gore won every district except the 5th and the 11th (Rodney Frelinghuysen, who is safe)

for the Democrats to put up a good candidate in the 4th...Smith is a one issue candidate and Trenton and Hamilton are Democratic strongholds. I don't know why we always concede this district.

The other part is Rush Holt's

I was looking it up. Smith got 62% of the vote in Mercer Country, while Kerry got 61%. And Smith also managed 70% in Monmouth Country, where Bush only got 55%. Something doesn't seem quite right about that.

Take a look at the geography of this district, gerrymandered like no other in the state. Towns in the northeast like Bergenfield, Dumont and New Milford (all of which used to be in the 9th - Rothman's district), Paramus, Ridgewood lumped together with farm towns on the Delaware River in Sussex and Warren Counties, a district that cuts like a skinny ribbon through the heart of the deep red areas of Bergen like Saddle River, etc., connecting areas that have nothing whatsoever in common.

I only wish it could be in play since I live in the district but unless Garrett has some terrible scandal I can't see how any Democrat would have a snowball's chance in hell here. I do think it is important for the county and statewide tickets to continue to have high quality candidates like Anne Wolf but winning it would take a miracle.

Jersey Devil, I can see how you feel that way. However, I was a reporter in the western part of the district (very R) for three years and I quit to work for Anne Wolfe this year. A few things to consider:

1. Due to the relative affordability of the western portion of the district (compared to "North Jersey" anyway), more and more families are moving from the northeastern part of the state to Warren and Sussex counties, thereby diversifying the area in all demographics.

2. In the 2004 election, Anne Wolfe won 42 percent of the vote as a challenger with no financial assistance from the DSC, DCCC, Emily's List or other major Dem. fundraising groups. She campaigned like a champion. Compare that with 2002, when Anne Sumers won just 40 percent in an open seat race and with support of some of those aforementioned fundraising groups.

3. Scott Garrett is unknown to most of his constituents. I can't tell you how many people still think Marge Roukema is their rep. Though I don't beleive much in coattails, my gut tells me that many people just voted down the line for Republicans because they voted for Bush. Education on the issues and Garrett's record will correct that in 2006. (See #4)

4. The Wolfe campaign will maintain a presence throughout the district unofficially through local Democracy for America and MoveOn.org meetup groups, which is how most of the campaign volunteers got involved in the very early months of 2004. We will be working to build the county organizations in Warren and Sussex, plus help to get Dems elected to local offices throughout the district. All of that work and the name recognition we built this year will give us a leg up if/when Anne declares her candidacy for 2006.

Dems in this part of the state need to remain optimistic and be willing to put in the hard work it will take to win in the future. Based on what I've seen, that will happen. We've got a great thing going. Anyone interested in participating in the Democratic Revolution in the 5th CD is more than welcome! :)

A little and determined Grassroots group in Essex is looking into the 2006 districts and have concluded what you've concluded. Are you a member of the group with no name yet? We want to learn about our repuke friends and any hypocracy they might be hiding. The demographics are changing in the dem favor but the hill to climb is a big one. I hope all progressive groups can get unified and really work to unseat the repukes. Keeping Rush Holt is critical. He's a good guy and a hard worker.

regarding Mike ("my main residence is in Maryland") Ferguson.

In the 2004 election, we came pretty damn close to defeating him with Steve Brozak as our candidate.

I believe 2006 will be the charm!


:hippie:

Garret is toast--in 2004 his opponent raised some money and its was competitive. Next time Garret is up against me and my friends from the South Orange and Maplewood. We have 50 folks ready to volunteer for GOTV -canvasssing--fundraising--The 5th is in our sights.

We need all the help we can get out here.

are the most winnable based on demographics. The Gore-Nader vote in Smith's district was over 52 percent and Saxton's district is very Democratic. Stronger candidates are needed.

They took away his Veterans Committee Chair to punish him. That was his only redeeming feature. We should stress his inability to be effective any more. The argument should be along the lines of "If his own party is not behind him, what good can he do New Jersey? Elect a Democrat who will fight for you."

We need to run a real candidate, though. Not another Amy Vasquez.

Did she even run a campaign?

Seemed everyone who was there thought the 5th was a great target,
MaYBE THE BEST tARGET IN nj.

What diya say- lets take Garret out the Wellstone way ! ! !


And since one of our instructors is in the thick of NJ Dems fundraising,

We now have an in--

she raised like 10 bucks. I wish the NJ democratic party would get their heads out of their asses and run a real candidate, because it would be an easy pick up for us. I really envy my Princeton neighbors who get to have Rush Holt represent them!

Anne was a real candidate. And will be again in 2006.

I agree with you about Rep. Holt. And also that the NJ Dems need to start thinking about what's best for the party as a whole and for the voters, instead of about just what's best for themselves and their re-election.

Jersey Devil said
5. Sorry but the 5th is not in play
Take a look at the geography of this district, gerrymandered like no other in the state.

The 5th remians nearly unchanged from 2000 to 2002

While the 7th underwent surgery in the same period.