Sherrod Brown running for DeWine's seat

http://www.cleveland.com/newslogs/plaindealer/index.ssf?/mtlogs/cleve_plaindealer/archives/2005_10.html#085484

12:36 p.m.

U.S. Representative Sherrod Brown will run for Senate next year, hoping to oust incumbent Mike DeWine. But Brown, a Democrat from Avon and a former Ohio secretary of state, will first have to run in a primary against Iraq war veteran Paul Hackett of Cincinnati unless Hackett drops out of the Democratic contest. Hackett has given no such indication.

Brown, serving his seventh congressional term, announced this summer that he would not run for Senate. He says he changed his mind after considering professional and personal issues, including resolution of House priorities he played a leadership role

Hackett was great in the 2nd district and won for sure (carried all white rural counties, w/punch card voting by 60-40%; lost mure populated by 58-42% and 51-48%--makes no sense). He's powerful.

Brown has been and is great. I hope they work something out or at least treat each other with respect. Who ever wins should have our support to stomp all over DeWine.

I have seen him make several excellent speaches on the House floor, as well as participated in extended debate at night. Isn't he a part of the "30 something" group?

His voting record is impressive.

Good luck, Sherrod.

all he needs is the Demo nomination to get the seat.

I'm extremely mad at him. 2006 is the year that Dems could make huge gains, HUGE - and now he wants to throw a wrench into it by splitting Dems between him and Hackett. He should not have announced that he wasn't running. I expected Sherrod to take a bit of a leadership role among the Ohio Dems. If he runs, it doesn't show an ounce of leadership.

Don't announce you are not going to run if you aren't sure. He looks like an opportunist trying to muscle in on Hackett's stage.

I am very disappointed in him. I should have qualified to say that I will not vote for him in the PRIMARY. I would probably still vote for either in the general. But I would donate and volunteer my time to Hackett. I know my friends and family that are very much independent voters would go with Hackett over Dewine. They would most likely be split with DeWine and Brown. Not much passion either way.

We want a Dem in that seat no matter who it is but give Hackett first opportunity.

We know nothing really about Hackett except he dissed George Bush on National TV...

And he ran a good aggressive campaign...

Please give Sherrod the benifit of the doubt...

There must have been a reason he is doing what he is doing...

BTW, I was shocked that Sherrod jumped in...

senate seat when time comes. As long as a Dem holds the coming seat I can live with Hackett. Hackett has Military experience and less history for independents to pick at, so he is in a better position to win than Brown.

for another 5 years...

Hackett is inexperienced....

He really only ran a 2 month campaign, at best....

Dewine is beatable....

I would rather have our best vetern take on the Dweeb than a raw rookie....

Hackett has a lot of experienced help backing him. Brown said he wasn't running. Brown's support is finite. Hackett can reach more independents with his military background. I guess we'll just have to wait and see. I don't see Brown winning the primary unless Repubs and Diebold back him as the more vulnerable opponent. Does Ohio have crossover primarys?

has developed....

First of all, he is pretty much an unknown candidate outside of our insular world...

Second, Sherrod has developed strong ties across the political spectrum that are stronger than anything Hackett has or can garner in the up coming months...

Third, Hackett was the focal point of a lot of disgruntled democrats, essentially the only show in town.... That is why he was able to raise money and get volunteers... Next year, he will be competing with hundreds of other state and local races for attention both here in Ohio and across the country....

Fourth, Sherrod has the experience and record of a progressive candidate... He is one of us... Can you emphatically say that about Hackett...

Look, I love your enthusiasm, but I try to look at this from a purely analytical position... I have had over 25 years of experience in and around politics... I can almost guarantee Hackett will get some party backing, but when it comes push to shove, Sherrod will get the endorsement of the party, the endorsement of almost every paper, the endorsement of Labor, the endorsement of all other groups that depend on government for funding and the list goes on....

Do you really think that Sherrod made this decision in a vacuum? Don't you think people came to him to ask him to run....

Didn't Hackett just barely lose to a corrupt Republican bitch? Isn't Katherine Blackwell or Ken Harris still Secretary of State? Too many people from Ohio would just as soon vote for a cow patty as they would a progressive. My in-laws live in Ohio and they cling to Bush like a whino clutching his last bottle.

I admit I don't know much about Hackett but neither do Ohio independents or moderate repukes. I just want the seat for Dems. I live in GA and I'd vote for Zell Miller again just because we need majority seats to determine the Chairs. Could Hackett switch? Possibly, but right now my faith in Ohio politics says a progressive candidate would not do well in a state where political cronyism and corruption make Georgia and Lousianna look squeeky clean (jmho).

I'm not sure Hackett or Kerry lost in Ohio. I still think Hackett has a better chance of getting independent votes and motivating disgruntled voters into showing up at all. I don't think Brown can do either or even energize the base into a showing. I could be wrong but Brown gets my support only if he wins the primary.

That he was a state rep.. I believe a county commisioner... And has been in congress for 12 years....

He has won in a marginal Dem district....

He has a very strong base....

So yea, you are probably right... Some guy who comes out of nowhere and gets close in a special election in the middle of summer which the whole country focused should be given carte blanche...

I believe you need to study real time politics a little more before you make a blanket statement like that....

Again, I admire Hackett for his strong showing....

But how can you say he will generate independent voters... what proof do you have...

I said he has a better chance of getting independent votes and motivating disgruntled voters . My rational for this is based on his lack of being a career politician and his military service. My proof is his last campaign. What proof do you have that he can't?

12 years is impressive but now you have to factor in Diebold and optical scanners. As well, Hackett doesn't have a long political history to pick apart.

While I appreciate your point of view you have to remember the average voter is either stupid or ignorant. How else do Republican's keep elections close enough to steal?

the turn out in the hackett race wasn't spectacular and, as I have said before, no real gauge of his potential has realistically been measured....

Ohio is much more comfortable voting for a known quantity...

Most successfull statewide candidates here in Ohio have had to run at least once before they can win....

Voinovich, arguably the most successfull republican candidate in years, had to run statewide twice before he could win...

But come the general, you better vote for who ever wins....

I say that because Hackett has only run in one race (and an odd race at that, a special election).

in a general against DeWine than Brown. DeWine and Brown will both be perceived as Washington insiders and part of the Ohio establishment that most people that I talk with in Ohio is pretty much sick of. I think a fresh face combined with the charisma and straight talk that Paul Hackett brings would be a better sell to Ohio voters. I know it is all about the money. I guess Brown will probably win the primary because of that fact, but I think it will be a toss up for him to beat the incumbent.

You seem to be enamored by his military record and his willingness to take on Bush...

But, Sherrod has won statewide....

He is also a very progressive legislator who has a solid record with traditional democratic factions...

We don't know that much about Hackett....

Don't get me wrong...

I like Hackett, but this contest is winnable.... And Sherrod just has a better shot than Hackett...

Hackett would hve to spend too much time in the north in order to persuade the swing voters to his side...

Sherrod already has them and a good chunck of central Ohio as well....

And the Brown name plays very good in Ohio....

For that matter, what about John Brown? He was very popular in this state that led the abolitionist movement.

Sherrod Brown has a better chance b/c of the Browns, Paul Brown and John Brown? I guess we could add that I love Charlie Brown the cartoon character, Jim Brown was a hell of a ball carrier, and I was once a member of the Brownies. I think that reasoning goes along with a round of beers.

That many people who vote, senior citizens, would remember...

Also, Sherrod has run and won state wide....

The name does play well whether you like to recognize that fact or not....

This has nothing at all to do with the Cleveland Browns....

IIRC, he changed his name, which means Brown in Italian, to Brown because it would sound more electable state-wide.

better known as "Brownie."

<<< BEGIN RANT >>>

Look, I know Brown is popular up north, but you Brown supporters have got to be kidding me with the "he's tested and he's won statewide office" meme. IT'S BEEN TWENTY YEARS, and he lost the last statewide election he ran in, don't forget!!

If you think Ohio is the same in 2005 as it was in 1986, you don't live in the same Ohio I do.

One thing is for certain... in the last twenty years, the Republicans have formed their Ohio base in the southwestern corner of the state, namely, the suburbs and farmlands surrounding Cincinnati. This area is consistently the one that puts Republicans over-the-top in statewide offices.

It is the area that gave Bush the 2004 election, in my opinion.

The more liberal areas of Ohio are going to vote for the Democratic Senate nominee anyway... but if that nominee is Brown, it is my belief that the Cincinnati area will once again hand the election to DeWine.

I want this Senate seat so bad I can taste it... but the national Dem party politicos are proving again that they don't understand Ohio politics and dynamics. And they're going to blow it again with this Sherrod Brown annunciation, just like they have in every election since Metz and Glenn left the Senate.

The election will be won down here. And for that election to be won by Democrats, Paul Hackett should be the nominee.

BTW, I have been involved in NE Ohio politics for 20 years and because of that, I was involved and watch the Ohio Dem party implode...

Cincinnati is not going to now, or in the near future, change it's voting habits...

There, like in Cuyahoga County, the independents tend toward the dominant party....

And Remember, Dewine is from that general area... Greene County...

He, meaning Dewine, is going to play well in the exurban areas, the rural areas and the GOP enclave of Cincinnati.....

Brown will play better in central Ohio.... That is where his true base lies... He is from Mansfield... His main office is in Lorain County because that is the largest county in his district...

Sherrod lost his statewide election because of a foolish trip to Japan at the tax payers expense....

The Ohio republican base has always been in Southwestern and rural Ohio, It wasn't magically formed 20 years ago...

When I was a page for the Ohio House 30 years ago, almost all the republicans came from that area...

So, my problem with Hackett is that he may, in a highly publicized general that is of interest to far more people than a special election, get lost in the shuffle... He was a novelty to the media and a rally point for all the dems in the country....

The governors race will get far more attention as will the other statewide seats as they set up for reapportionment after the 2010 election...

Most party organizations look at senate campaigns as far off, intangible races.... To them, the organization and time is spent on the races that can make life better for their people, meaning party activists who have government jobs...

Now in 2006, there will be all the statewide offices up... countless county commissioner and auditor and recorder and all the other positions that bring home the bacon, so to speak, for the people who put their feet in the ground locally....

I am just looking at this whole race realistically having seen it up close and personal for longer than I care to admit...

... and I'm pretty certain we've gotten into disagreements vis-a-vis Cincinnati politics before, I do have to point this out... during the special election in the Ohio 2nd, Cincinnati voters showed that they were absolutely willing to change their voting habits if Democrats presented them with a great candidate.

It's hard for me to imagine Franklin County and the surrounding counties as a "battleground." Columbus was more solidly pro-Kerry than you might remember.

And while the Republican base in Cincinnati wasn't "magically formed" twenty years ago, over the last twenty years it has morphed into the powerful machine it is today. I can guarantee you they weren't in the churches until mid 1999.

Go ahead and cheerlead for Sherrod Brown if you want, but I don't have any appetite for losing this election. I'd also argue with your premise that you're the only one looking at this race realistically.

For God's sake, they have nothing in common; you've got to be joking!

I'm originally from Youngstown (where politics is a contact sport)and have lived in Toledo; believe me, southwestern Ohio is its own little foreign country compared to the rest of Ohio.

You are wrong, my friend, dead wrong. Hackett can enliven this race and make people sit up and listen; Brown cannot.

Now, shall we all join in a chorus of "John Brown's Body?"

What I did say was they were in the same general area of Ohio...

Sure Cincinnati proper is democratic, but the surrounding country side is not....

Be that as it may, let's take a look at some numbers...

In 2005, the special election attracted 115576 voters in that race.
In 2004, the general election attracted 316760 voters in that race.

That means the whole race generated 36.48% of the total votes cast in 2004.

In 2005, the special election attracted 115576 voters in that race.
In 2002, the general election attracted 118016 voters in that race.

That means the whole race generated 61.47% of the total votes cast in 2002.

2002 is a more prescient comparison because that was the first year after a redistricting. So Portman had to run in some new areas. Looking inside the numbers, Charles Sanders, the democratic candidate in 2002, garnered 48785 votes by spending little to no money. A thinking person could say that was the hard core dem vote in that race. The 2005 special election, Hackett earned 55886 votes. So Hackett was able to motivate the base, and attracted a good chunk of people who normally called themselves independents.

I say the dems were far more motivated than the republicans, it's the way these things happen. I also say that since it was the only game in town, the people took notice who normally wouldn't.

There you have the numbers. The turnout will be higher since there will be a competitive race for the governors office this time around.

And please do not bring up the Diebold shit. If there is a problem, it is there and we have to deal with the reality. Having a scapegoat going in is not a healthy way to run a campaign.

I live in Sherrod's district (the 13th) and I love him as a Congressman, but I don't want him running for Senate. Since 1986, there have been less Democrats in southern Ohio (the migration to the religous right has become more complete) and northern Ohio (Toledo, Cleveland, Akron, Youngstown) has lost population, meaning there are less Democrats up here than there were in 1986.

I certainly feel that rural southern Ohioans are hungry for new leadership, but if the Democrats don't offer that alternative, then the rural southern Ohioans will continue to vote Republican as a default. I think Hackett is the best person to take on the job of converting these people to vote Democrat. He successfully did it in the Congressional race (he lost due to the rich suburban vote) and now that he has a campaign under his belt, he will campaign much better this time around and achieve better results.

So what if Sherrod has $3 millionin the bank. He will use it up trying to defeat Hackett. I think as people get to know Hackett, enough money will flow in for him.

Something is really fishy about Brown jumping in all of the sudden. He seemed to be so set on maintaining his status on the Health Subcommitte and possibly become chairman. Supposedly, he cared so much about the health care issue.

I thought Hackett got the blessing of the Washington crowd. Am I wrong? It seems to me that Brown's recruitment may have come from the ODP and labor more so than from the DNC. Can someone clear this up?

crowd, was because Sherrod wasn;t in the race....

Really? Do you see Chris Matthews and Tim Russert and George Stephanapolous inviting Sherrod on their shows continuously to pound on the president and the war, bringing even more national attention to our Senate race?

Really...?

for a Social Security presentation he and the labor unions supported/publicized down here in Montgomery Co.

Turn out was embarrassing.

or doesn't do....

It's all about the home state....

Especially when there are 33 other seats up for grabs, 425 house seats up for grabs,

All politics is local......

The Hackett race, one conducted under a national eye starved for the battle, was not a local race.... Only the voting was local....

Do you think, honestly, that the people in PA, for example, are gonna traipse over to Ohio to help Hackett

Ohioans don't just read the Plain Dealer and watch Ohio News Network.

They watch CNN, MSNBC, and especially Fox News. They read USA Today. They even used to read the Op/Ed page of the New York Times, when it was free online.

National attention can fire up the home base and make the election seem even more important than it is. National attention gets local voters to their own polls.

National attention BRINGS IN THE MONEY. National attention is why Paul Hackett out-raised Jean Schmidt by more than 2-1 in the final weeks of the OH-2 special.

By the way, people traipsed from Pennsylvania, Kentucky, Illinois and Indiana to help on the Hackett campaign in OH-2. I was there, and it blew my mind. Now, I'm going out on a limb here, but I'd wager that die-hard Illinois Democrats learned about Paul Hackett from watching him kick Bush's ass on "Hardball" and "This Week", and reading about him on Eschaton and MyDD.

All voting is local. Important races are national.

In the special election, it was the only game in town...

No other election was happening that day...

That is why the eyes of the nation were on this particular race...

So, the competition for air time in 2006 will be fierce....

Yes, I know people in the know watch all sorts of other media...

But it can;t be that much when you consider that only about 1,000,000 people watch those talking head shows at any given moment....

Divvy that up amongst the total population and you will see that in Ohio, only about 50,000 or 75,000 eyes are on Chris Matthews at any given time...

Our circle, and I assume you hang around the same type of people I do, informed, interested in current affairs, know who Hackett is...

But do the people who watch Oprah and get all their news from the local newscast at 6:00 and 11:00 even know that there is going to be Senate Campaign next year....

Trust me on this one... I have been involved in electoral politics for most of my adult life, in one form or another...

The name recognition doesn't mean much beyond the primary, but in the primary, the people who vote, the people who are involved, the people who work for candidates, do depend on name recognition and Brown has it over Dewine...

I would be curious to see the actual results of that poll that shows Hackett leading Dewine by 8 points...

It could be that of the people who know who Hackett is, 8% of those people thought Hackett the better candidate....

Sherrod probably had a poll commissioned and it showed him with a much higher favorable rating amoungst all voters than Dewine...

This far out, it is name recognition and favorability ratings that matter most...

... for anti-Bush sentiment, especially if Hackett is the nominee.

If the war continues along as horribly as it is now, Hackett will be a go-to guy for reaction and opinion on every national pundit show on cable and network news. Brown can't bring that to the table.

I've also worked in electoral politics for my entire adult life, so unless you can point me to the many Ohio statewide elections you've personally won for Democrats in the lasts thirteen years, I'm going to trust my own instincts, thank you very much.

I see the great success in the Cincinnati area....

And I can point to a complete democratic cabinet in Cuyahoga County...

But again, let me point out to you the Rick Santorum (sp) race in PA will draw far more attention than Ohio's senate race...

The race in California for Governor will draw far more attention than the race in Ohio...

The Senate race in Florida will draw more attention...

I'm just sayin'

... but I'll point to Paul Hackett coming thisclose in the OH-2 special. If you don't see the significance of that, and how it could play out statewide, then please get out of the way and let us run Hackett to victory.

And since you've already decided this senate race won't get any national attention, again, please get out of the way. With Hackett running, it'll be the most talked-about race in the country.

Cuyahoga County elected a complete Democratic cabinet? Wow, that's surprising. :eyes:

By the way, down here in Republi-Land, the Dems have the most powerful Hamilton County Commissioner (Todd Portune), and we Cincinnati Dems have led him to victory time and time again. We know how to win with the right candidate.

too most people....

I am so glad you are enamored with Paul Hackett....

It's a good thing...

Let the games begin.....

And I promise you, I will vote for the best man, or woman, if that should happen.....

Cause you know what, if two men are in that race, a woman is almost assuredly going to step on in....

Look for Mary Boyle or Travaris to take a run....

And don't think Dewine is going to get a free pass from the GOP...

I hear old smiley himself, Bouncin' Bob McEwen is thinking about stepping in to challenge Dewine....

BTW, I have no love for the Ohio Democratic Party...

They had Blackwell on the ropes in 98 and could have killed him if only they would have supported Travaris instead of putting all their hopes and dreams on Fisher....

If you really thought that Hackett would still garner tremendous media attention when there are elections all over the country, then you wouldn't care about Brown.

Hackett's race was the only game in town which is why he had so much media attention and support. He will not have this luxury when there are 100s of races around the country. He also won't have every activist in the country helping him because most will have races in their communities.

If he is really the best candidate with the most support, then won't he win the primary? If he does, I'll certainly support him. I just don't think 2 months of running for office entitles him to anything.

Really? And you don't think that's red meat to the national media and pundit class?

If Hackett wins the nomination, the Ohio Senate race will leapfrog to the top of most-watched races. You and I both know that the media has a narrow focus and short-attention-span, and they'll handpick two or three "important" senate races.

I guarantee you they'll pick the one with the hunky Marine Iraq veteran new-kid-on-the-block going against the establishment, milquetoast, rubber-stamp Republican Dewine.

I'm not saying that's a reason to run Hackett, but if you don't pay attention to the superficial subscript in politics, you lose elections.

One two month campaign, a few television appearances, and the fact that he served in Iraq does not entitle him to a free ride...

The race will have national implications whether Chris Matthews of Sean Hannity turn their attention a few times in the fall....

The money will pour in simply because Dewine is Vulnerable....

Let the primary decide who is to be the winner...

Sherrod obviously made a rash decision about the race and was probably convinced by people in Washington to reconsider, like maybe the people who don't a gun in every home....

So, if Hackett is the better campaigner, let the games begin...

...was probably convinced by people in Washington to reconsider, like maybe the people who don't (want) a gun in every home.... Let's just be honest here. A Dem in Ohio can win with the strong labor message, but not with an anti-gun message. I live in rural Ohio and this is testimonial, but I honestly cannot think of any voters that I know that would vote anti-gun. Many are hunters, or enjoy the venison that the hunters share with them. It is just fact. If a candidate is painted as "too liberal", I don't think they can win Ohio. They need a progressive, pro-labor, pro-working class message, health care reform, etc. My friends and family are mostly independent voters - an anti-gun candidate would not win favor with them. Like I said, it's testimonial, right or wrong, it's just the way it is with the people I know.

It's just he wouldn't be pro gun or endorsed by the NRA....

I think that makes people uncomfortable,....

The Washington insiders or the Dem establishment? If so, they need to start looking at winning races. And (again IMHO) they (the establishment) can't always think that the candidate that they want is the one that the voters will. I really think Hackett would have more of a chance in Ohio to unseat DeWine than Sherrod Brown does at this point. I won't post what I'm thinking, but I could see a Republican message that would just hammer Brown.

poll and then the favorability poll....

That is what the pro's do, this far out, to see if there is a high recognition or a high favorable or unfavorable impression...

It must have some back on the low side for Hackett and very high for Sherrod...

according to the "Dayton Daily News" -- link here:

http://tinyurl.com/batsg

Of course Paul Hackett is the most high-profile of the bunch and is the reason for the article, which mentions that Sherrod Brown is ALSO challenging DeWino.

See what he started? He'll get lots of press; Brown won't.

counties in the primary: Pike, Adams, and Scioto all voted Democratic.

I agree about the "fishy" part of Brown jumping in all of a sudden . . . hmm.

past, represented by Vern Riffe in the Ohio House...

The democratic speaker for 22 years...

They were a long democratic stronghold for decades.....

to ensure survival of the fittest.

The repubs are probably wishing they had a primary to rotate DeWine out and bring an unknown into play.

I wish all our candidates well and look forward to a busy a fruitful 2006.

is that the competitors have to lay open each other's weaknesses. That plays well for DeWine. All he has to do is sit back and collect points while we fight each other. I like both men. I do wish Sherrod had announced that he was running before Hackett jumped in. Now I wish one would drop out.

you make good points, we & our candidates have to work our way out of this positively.

I agree with your basic premise that we don't want our candidates to beat each other up. They must, must, must run positive campaigns.

On the other hand, a primary brings name recognition which they need. I work with people who usually vote, but pay little attention to politics. Being from Centeral Ohio, I highly doubt they know about either candidate. (Sometimes I think we're spoiled here. We start to think everyone listens to NPR and AA, receives emails from moveon, and reads news articles from around the state/country/world.)

Schmidt will have the advantage of incumbency by then. And I'm sure the Dem party will give him the same help it did when he ran against her a few months ago - little to nothing.

Pardon my cyncism, but the Ohio Dem Party is still living in the fantasy world of the Celeste days. Most Ohioans don't even remember who he was, nor can they recall a time when any Dem held statewide office.

The political world has changed radically in Ohio since those days, but the old Dem hacks are still in charge. I'm afraid we may be doomed to see more statewide losses before grassroots Dems rise up and get rid of the party leadership.

I had hoped it would happen this year, but IMHO, we still have another 4 years to go before the Ohio Dem party is modernized. The fact that they're treating rising talent like Hackett in such a shabby fashion says it all. Established Dems would rather lose good candidates and races than share the few small crumbs of power they have.

Dems may be lucky enough to pick up a couple of state level seats, but not the governor's seat. Under the current Dem leadership in Ohio, the odds are very much against winning a Senate seat and we'll probably lose two Congressional seats (Brown's & Strickland's).

mainly on the Executive Branch and lets the Legistlative races pretty much up to the respective caucuses...

I don't Ohio Dem's had much if anything to do with Sherrod or Hackett....

This is purley a Washington gig, I would imagine...

but deciding not to run and then joining the fray a few days after Hackett announces his candidacy is just downright mean.

One of the main reasons Dem candidates have been losing state level and statewide races for so long is the ability of the regional news media to ignore campaigns. Media coverage goes to the candidate who makes the biggest media buy. Eric Fingerhut had to resort to walking across the state to get news media coverage in his race against Voinovich. The same thing will happen with th 2006 senate race.

Bush and Taft can be the most hated elected officials in history, but it won't make a dent in DeWine's support if the Ohio news media ignores the race until the very last minute, as they always do.

IMHO any Dem who wants to run against DeWine better have the ability to get news coverage in national media markets if they're going to win.