OR PHONE SURVEY Share (±3.2% MoE)
Kerry
52.2
Bush
46.3
Margin
+5.9
Kerry
51.35
Bush
47.19
Margin
+4.16
Swing
Gore
46.96
Bush
46.52
Nader
5.04
+0.44
+3.7%
DISCREPANCY (%)
Margin Δ
PhoneSurvey - VoteCount
+1.74%
'+' = share-margin shift to Bush
< MoE
Oregon Voting System Advantages- Vote exclusively by mail-in ballots: '04=86.5% '08=85.7%
- Each general election: post-election handcount of random-selected precincts
- Partial/full hand-recounts check optical scanner tallies
- "No recount conducted in Oregon has ever turned up evidence that a tally machine failed to correctly count votes. A full recount is the ultimate test and with each election we always have at least one or two."
Oregon Facts:- Gore 2000:
.44% OR VoteCount margin VERY NEAR .52% National
- Kerry 2004:
4.2% OR VoteCount margin was a NEAR MATCH to 5% unadjusted State Exit Poll Aggregate. Compare to Kerry -2.5% National Recorded Vote-Count margin deficit
- Obama 2008:
56.7% OR VoteCount share a NEAR MATCH to 57.1% OR TrueVote model. Compare 52.9% National Recorded share vs his 58.0% National TrueVote model
NY EXIT POLL Share (± 2-3% MoE)
Kerry
64.5
Bush
34.0
Margin
+30.5
Kerry
58.37
Bush
40.08
Nader
1.35
Margin
+18.29
Swing
Gore
60.21
Bush
35.23
Nader
3.58
+24.98
-6.7%
Margin Δ
ExitPoll - VoteCount
+12.2 %
'+' = share-margin shift to Bush
>2 x MoE
New York Voting System Vulnerabilities:- Defective levers in the most democratic precincts – undercount votes
- Too few levers in Democratic precincts – long lines
- Pre-set levers stuck on Bush – discourage voters
- Late provisional and absentee paper ballots not counted on Election Day
- Lever totals input to PROGRAMMABLE central tabulators
- No hand recounts – there are no paper ballots to count (except for late votes)
New York Facts:- 2000-2008:
Democratic late (paper ballot) vote-share 7% higher than E-Day (lever) and matched the unadjusted exit polls
- Gore 2000:
25% recorded marg (60-35%)– 2% exitpoll discrepancy
- Kerry 2004:
18% recorded marg (58-40%)–12% exitpoll discrepancy
- Obama 2008:
27% recorded marg (63-36%)–exit polls not released
NATIONAL Exit Polls & Recorded Vote-Counts – Prelim NEPs vs Final NEPs PRELIM NEP, 13K Random Selection .86% MoE Kerry
50.8
Bush
48.2
Nader
1.0
Margin
+2.6
Kerry
48
Bush
51
Margin
-3.0
Recorded VOTE-COUNT Share (%)
Kerry
48.27
Bush
50.73
Nader
0.38
Margin
-2.46
Swing
Gore
48.38
Bush
47.87
Nader
2.73
+0.52
-3.0%
DISCREPANCY (%)
Margin Δ
12:22a Prelim NEP - VoteCount
+5.1 %
'+' = share-margin shift to Bush
3 x MoE
• If Final NEP weightings indicate a mathematically impossible number of
returning voters, then simple logic dictates the weightings are impossible.
• Since impossible weightings were necessary to match to the official vote count,
then the official national Recorded VOTE-COUNT must also be impossible.
• Since the vote count is impossible, then all demographic category cross tabs
must use incorrect weights and/or vote shares to match the count.
As a battleground state, it is to be expected that Oregon closely matches the national electorate. Since it votes 100% by mail, and paper ballot precincts had the lowest (2%) exit poll discrepancies from the recorded vote-counts, we can hypothesize that Oregon closely approximates the
True Vote. This is confirmed by the following facts:
...- Do you believe:
a)
the 2008 Oregon vote ( 56.7% ) reflected Obama’s True national share ( 58.0% ), or
b)
the national recorded vote-count share ( 52.9% ) for Obama?
Did fraud cut Obama’s margin by 13.0 million (from 22.5 to 9.5 million)?
...Now consider New York.
In 2000, Gore won the state by 25% (60.2–35.2%). In 2004, Kerry’s recorded vote-count margin declined to 18.3% (58.4–40.1%). But Kerry won the unadjusted exit poll by 64.5–34.0%, a 12.2% WPD. Why the sharp reversal of fortune?
Consider the largest counties in Oregon and New York, Multnomah (OR) and Kings (NY):
Gore won Kings Cty (Brooklyn)
by 74.7–15.0%. Kerry won it by 74.2–22.8%, an 8.3% LOWER margin.
Gore won Multnomah
by 63.5–28.2%. Kerry won it by 71.6–27.4%, an 8.9% HIGHER margin.
It’s an
Urban Legend: Bush recorded vote share increased sharply from 2000 to 2004 in heavily Democratic urban areas but declined in rural locations. Except for Oregon — the ONLY 100% mail-in paper ballot and hand-recount state.
Consider that …http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x8103177">FULL ARTICLE and Tables
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