Daily Kos predicting Toomey will win

And I agree with him - I think Joe Hoeffel will have a helluva time beating him. Maybe I'm being pessismistic. The DNC needs to get behind Hoeffel if Toomey is the candidate.

PA-Sen: Toomey will win tomorrow
by kos
Mon Apr 26th, 2004 at 18:34:24 EDT

Damn. It's been a while since we've had a nailbitter of an election, but tomorrow's Pennsylvania Republican primary election is fitting the bill.
SurveyUSA has tracked Toomey's rise -- a rise that seemed all but inevitable when I first wrote about this race. It was clear from the beginning that Toomey was putting together one of the great campaigns of recent years. And sitting here, on election's eve, SUSA has incumbent Sen. Specter and Toomey tied.

<snip>

Once upon a time I used to think that a Toomey candidacy would be good news for Democratic presumptive nominee Joe Hoeffel. But I've changed my mind. While a Toomey general election victory would be no sure thing, the election would be his to lose. I have seen nothing from Hoeffel to indicate that he can make PA a marquee race this November.

A Specter victory tomorrow, on the other hand, would give us a bloodied and broke candidate who has alienated a significant part of the PA GOP's base. Toomey's ads morphing Specter into Kerry were viciously effective. A good percentage of Toomey supporters (43 percent according to the most recent Q-poll) will not vote for Specter in the general, not surprising if they associate Specter with their top nemesis, Kerry.

So PA Republicans have a choice between a moderately successful centrist Republican incumbent with significant cross-over appeal to Democrats, or a wingnut candidate far to the right of the Pennsylvania general electorate. And I can't believe I'm rooting for the out-of-touch-with-the-electorate wingnut.

http://www.dailykos.com/

also would be an embarrassment for Bush because he campaigned for Specter.

"Toomey's ads morphing Specter into Kerry were viciously effective."

So, if Kerry, on key issues, is "morphed" to Bush's, then do Indies and disgusted Dems get so turned off that they don't turn out?

Won't the same principle apply?? Esp. if Nader is lurking about?

We can't survive another Sanitarium. Our state will be the laughing stock of America.

The only reason Santorum won in 2000 is because nobody supported Ron Klink. All we have to do is support Hoeffel with money and whatnot and we have it.

People know that Toomey is a fucking storm trooper so it wouldn't be that hard to win.

Jobs, Social Security, Health Care, etc. are still important issues in PA.

Toomey is scary and could win in November. Spector is a known quanity and may be too damaged to win in November. This is going to be a fun race to watch.

He would certainly have a shot at it, but it would certainly not be a slam dunk. Hoeffel would probably have the advantage, but not necessarily as huge as some DUers seem to believe.

I would personally prefer a Specter win (which would mean that Hoeffel's campaign would be DOA) rather than risk a Toomey victory. Toomey is more of a fiscal conservative that a social conservative (Santorum is more of a social conservative). Toomey is very spoken and knows when to keep his mouth shut. if he got into the Senate, he would be very hard to dislodge.

He's strongly anti-abortion.

remember that he's receiving more backing from groups like Club For Growth than the unChristian Coalition. He's also sort of libertarian on some issues, Specter actually had an ad attacking him for voting against gambling restrictings, against funding for abstinence only programs (though I suspect this is due more to his anti-spending on anything views) and opposing warning labels on "explicit" movies, records and video games. He may be as bigoted as Santorum but keeps more quiet about it.

to indicate that he can make PA a marquee race this November."

I too have seen and heard just about nothing from Hoeffel, but since he's unopposed in the primary that's no surprise.

waiting for the result of the primary. If Toomey wins, Heoffel's campaings will recieve a huge infusion of money for DC. If Specter wins, don't expect a whole lot.

But it'd take a lot scarce of cash. When Senators get up to their fourth and fifth terms, people start asking, "Why have you been around for so long?" and it becomes harder for them to win. Still, Specter is a good candidate.

As for Toomey, you're right he's on the fiscal side of the Republican divide, but that's exactly why he'll have a hard time getting elected, or re-elected. Santorum can go be supportive of the Steel Industry tarrif's if he feels like it, but Toomey and his Club for Growth pals can't. Though industry is dying and/or dead in all of Pennsylvania, maufacturing issues still dramatically effect the blue collar vote. Union members aren't going to vote for somebody who's endorsed by the Club for Growth.

Anyone know where I can get info on the races? returns and the like? just curious.

and the other posts in this forum eh?
http://www.wjactv.com/politics/3031254/detail.html