Perry's Lead Grows Slightly In Latest Poll

CBS 42) AUSTIN In an exclusive CBS 42/Survey USA poll of likely voters in Texas, Governor Rick Perry leads his opponents in the gubernatorial race, and has even gained slightly over them.

Perry leads Texas Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn, who is running as an independent, 41 percent to 20 percent. Democrat Chris Bell got 18 percent and Independent "Kinky" Friedman received 16 percent. One percent preferred some other candidate and three percent are undecided.

Since an identical SurveyUSA poll on April 26, Perry has gained 2 points, Strayhorn has lost 5 points, Bell has gained 3 points, and Friedman is unchanged. There are 5 and a half months until the Nov. 7 election. Perry's 41 percent support closely matches his 40 percent approval rating.

more: http://keyetv.com/local/local_story_142120344.html

and there will be a runoff. Probably Strayhorn and Perry. Bell will endorse Strayhorn as will Kinky. We then have the lesser of two Republican evils as governor.

Or, Perry and Strayhorn in a runoff, the Dems stay home and independents are disgusted, and we have the GOP primary race Strayhorn sought to avoid and Perry wins.

The current edition of Texas Monthly offers an interesting analysis of the political race for Texas governor. Texas Monthly lists 5 factors which make this election a unique opportunity for Democratic nominee Chris Bell to win:

(1) Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison’s surprise announcement that she would break her term-limit promise and run for a third Senate term instead of running for governor,
(2) Perry’s many fruitless special sessions,
(3) Tom DeLay’s indictment following the ethics charges initiated by Bell,
(4) Carole Strayhorn’s run for governor as an independent, and
(5) anti-incumbent/anti-Republican backlash from the Texas school finance tax debacle, rising gas prices, the Iraq war disaster, the Texas congressional gerrymandering scandal, failed Social Security and Medicare meddling, the Hurricane Katrina fiasco, and “the endless sniping and turf battles” between Perry and top Texas Republicans.

In addition to reporting the Dallas Morning News and Zogby polls which indicate that Bell leads Strayhorn and Kinky Friedman as the candidate most likely to defeat Perry, Texas Monthly also interviewed several election analysts for its story. Both the Washington-based political research firm Lone Star Project and Mike Baselice, whose 2002 Texas election polling “correctly predicted the outcomes of the state’s major races within fractions of a percentage point” agree that the gubernatorial race will come down to Bell and Perry because of the overwhelming “built-in voter” advantage that favors major party candidates over independents. Significantly, the conclusion reached by the Lone Star Project and Baselice has also recently been confirmed by the political analysis of Chuck McDonald who examined the race for the KVUE television station in Austin. McDonald agrees that the three main challengers to Perry will hang close to one another in the polls at first but then the race will narrow to a narrow fight between Bell and Perry as election day nears.

The internals on the Survey USA poll support this analysis. Kinky and c4n3p currently get 24% and 19% (respectively) support of self-identified liberals and 20% and 26% (respectively) support of self-identified Democrats. This support should shift back toward Bell as the election grows nearer and the likely voters start basing their preferences on issues (this will increase after the anti-liberal/anti-Democratic policies of Kinky and c4n3p come to light) and replace the current basis for most adult's professions of support which is mainly a test of name identification at this point.

and a dead-cat one at that.

You know Fred, it appears Bell has more momentum than Governor MoFo in this poll, despite being unable to run television commercials trumpeting the "largest tax cut in state history" (when other Republicans are calling it the largest tax INCREASE in history).

I wonder how the corporate media managed to avoid saying that ...

Can we look forward to another glowing thread on Richard or Grandmaw from you this week?

last week or even last month.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=180x31476

I suppose you were just playing LBN in the Texas forum?

It was simply a news story about a Republican running as an independent submitting signatures to get on the ballot. How was it "glowing?" Did I offer any priase to her?

seem to like to start threads in this forum that are derogatory to Democrats.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=180x30097

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=180x30861

What makes you think that DU needs the headlines for Strayhorn's campaign posted here? Don't all the candidates for governor with the exception of the Democrat get enough free media already? What exactly are you advancing, if it's not her?

Just an observation, not intended as a troll rating on you. You gotta admit, this evidence doesn't make you look too good.

The first one talks about how Barbara Radnofsky was the front-runner for Democratic run-off. There was nothing derogatory about her in the article.

The second article was a legitimate criticism about the losing candidate in the Democratic primary. It did not criticize the Democratic nominee, Congressman Henry Cuellar. Not spending over 300,000 in a tight primary isn't exactly a smart move, is it?

It is important that Democrats are aware current events. Strayhorn filing with more than enough signatures is a pretty big story, IMHO. There certainly was speculation that Strayhorn and Freidman may have had trouble collecting enough signatures. Thus the article was newsworthy.

including this very thread advancing the Perry campaign, as well as the others I have previously listed, don't really belong in DU. Most of us here check outside of DU occasionally for the news, and again, aren't necessarily looking here for breaking updates on the Perry or Strayhorn campaign.

You also tend to disseminate without editorial comment (the exception being your criticism of how Ciro didn't spend his money), rather than stick around for discussion (this exchange being the single notable exception).

You might also consider that you're protesting a bit too loudly the observation that you haven't said anything good about a Democrat in quite some time (that I can find). Of course if I have overlooked evidence of this then feel free to refute me.

In the meantime, don't be so defensive.

I've defended Senator Lieberman against attacks from those in his own party:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=364&topic_id=1254281&mesg_id=1256267

I've also defended Bob Casey, Jr., who is not the Democratic nominee for U. S. Senator from Pennsylvania:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=175x9736#9930

When some DUers went after Senator Bill Nelson, guess who defended him:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=145x6847#6889

A lot of DUers seem to have a lot of hate toward Democratic elected officials because those officials are not ideologically pure enough. If seem that they would rather elect a Republican who agrees with none fo the time than a Democrat who agrees with them most of the time, holding out for that Democrat who agrees with them all of the time.

I'm not defensive, just arguemntative. ;)

This is the Texas forum (again) and you certainly knew that was what I was referring to.

Actually that was quite a nice disassembly there, Fred. You answered the question you wanted to answer, instead of the question I asked. Very Rumsfeldian of you.

Oh, and thanks for bringing it to everyone's attention that you're a Lieberman Democrat. I have to say I wasn't aware of that before now.

Do spare us the Republican news updates in the future, if you please.

A few years back I did some work down in Texas. I lived there for several months. It was the year that Rick Green was first elected to the the State House of Representatives. Green was young, slick, and ambitious. I was delighted to hear that Rose had taken him out. Had he not done that, I am sure that Green would have climbed the political ladder to higher office. I saw the PBS that was done on that race, and Rose was just the right kind of candidate for that district.

It looks like Perry will win by default. Divide & conquer. (Edit: just read about the run-off that will ensue; so 40% won't do it, YEAH!)

What's good about Perry? He's better than Bush, by a hair. How do the Republicans manage to put so many mediocre people in elected office? Then of course they search their ranks for the most mediocre, anti-intellectual, corruptible, yes-folks; and spread like a cancer throughout a formerly functioning bureaucracy.

I'd like to make this the rallying cry for Texas voters:

Send a message to Hot Tub Tom: Vote straight Democratic.

That's what I do.

Whoever gets the most votes in November wins this sucker.

:shrug:

Run-offs in primaries, run-offs in special elections, run-offs in municipal elections. But no run-off for the November general election. So Bell shouldn't be counted out just yet. Although the perceived success of the just-concluded special session obviously helps Goodhair.

stand a chance.

In a two-way race (or a runoff), Perry CREAMS Bell because there just aren't enough Democrats or moderate independent voters in Texas to beat the Republican (although it took California only a decade to flip from the Nixon-Reagan-Wilson Republican state to become one of the bluest of blue states, but that's another topic).

In light of the fact that Bell cannot win a two-way race, c4n3p running as an Independent is ABSOLUTELY an indispensable element in getting Bell elected (and some Democrats who gave big money to c4n3p have already come back to Bell now that she's made it onto the ballot).

In light of the fact that Bell can win with only a plurality, this election may be won with as little as 33% of the vote according to the Lone Star Project's excellent analysis here: <http://www.lonestarproject.net/archive/2006voteproject.pdf>.

The Lone Star Project also has an interesting interactive vote simulator here: <http://www.lonestarproject.net/2006votesim.html>. The vote simulator basically makes assumptions about party base from the Bush-Kerry election plus a turnout assumption based on the turnout from the last non-presidential-election statewide vote and further assumes that Kinky's vote will be comprised of 40% that would have otherwise gone to Bell, 40% from c4n3p, and 20% from Perry. Based on these assumptions, you can simulate the election results projected according to your own estimate of how many votes Kinky will ultimate get and how much of the Democratic and Republican bases c4n3p will take.

Bad news: He's got a LOT of work ahead of him.

internal numbers of the polls.

The poll shows 48% self identified "conservatives" (which I roughly define as that universe of people who haven't looked up what the word "conservative" means) versus 48% liberal/moderates. Bell is winning among the self-identified liberals and -- surprisingly -- he's tied with c4n3p among the moderates.

Interestingly, the poll also shows 48% Republicans (versus 31% Democrats) with Perry getting a healthy 64% of the Republicans versus c4n3p's 17%. C4n3p KNOWS she must get her support among Republicans to at least 40%-45% (which she should be able to do -- she got 2,878,732 votes to Perry's 2,632,591 last time the both appeared on the ballot together). These poll results should motivate the Mean Old Grandma to lash out at Perry.

Most significantly, the poll was done BEFORE Perry threw the heart and soul of the GOP (anti-tax nuts) under the bus by supporting the "biggest Tax increase in Texas history." I think you will see quite a few Republicans flipping from Perry to c4n3p as a result of Perry's big tax increase which c4n3p has called unconstitutional and which she has promised to repeal. Here is just a sample on the anti-Perry backlash from the right:

<http://www.inthepinktexas.com/2006/05/09/lets-man-hug-it-out/>
<http://www.robbooth.net/2006/05/they-arent-very-happy-at-perry-blog.shtml>
<http://rightoftexas.wordpress.com/2006/05/16/harris-county-gop-passes-resolution-against-hb3-2/>
<http://isodes.blogspot.com/2006/05/but-will-he-shed-crocodile-tear.html>

Does this mean Bell will win? Not necessarily. Does it mean c4n3p will win? Not necessarily. Does it mean it's too soon for Perry to count his chickens? Definitely!

I must have missed the memo...

Strayhorn who was a Democrat, then a Republican, and now claims to be an Independent.

I predict that the google hits for the search term "c4n3p" will swell exponentially from now until the election.

You are doing a much better job than I could ever do. And you should know that you are appreciated. PLEASE help keep me informed.