Chris Bell now a strong fourth

Not exactly good news:

In the unusual four-way campaign for Texas Governor, Republican
Governor Rick Perry continues to enjoy a substantial lead, though he
has lost a couple points since our last survey of the race.

Perry now earns 38% support from Texas voters. Democrat Chris Bell
collects 14%, a drop from 17% in April, technically putting him in
fourth place.

Carole Keeton Strayhorn (I)-the state Comptroller asking to be listed
as Carole Keeton "Grandma" Strayhorn on the November ballot-is holding
steady at 19%. Early in the campaign, she had attracted 31% support, but our
most recent survey found that the early enthusiasm for her campaign had
dissipated.

Kinky Friedman (I), the wisecracking musician, author, and official
Colorful Character in the race, now wins 20% support, a five-point
gain. Although his given name is Richard, this candidate will appear on the
ballot as "Kinky."

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/May%202006/TexasGovMay.htm

I wish I knew.

That's the problem. No one outside of my little circle of extremely political friends even knows who Bell is. No one knows or cares who the Dem candidate is. I haven't seen any signs, bumpber stickers, TV news blurbs, ads, nothing. It almost makes me not want to bother to vote, if they can't be bothered to campaign. The defeatism of the Texas party is sickening.

Rasumssen clearly OVERSAMPLED Republicans and far-right-leaning "Independents" because, according to the people who answered Rasmussen's poll, "Texan voters are more likely than voters elsewhere to approve the job that former Governor George W. Bush is doing as President; 54% approve, 36% Strongly Approve."

Those Bush approval numbers are a CRAZY anomaly. If you agree that the Rasmussen's Bush approval numbers in Texas grossly inflate his approval rating (and every poll on the planet confirms this), then you can see why Bell's support was grossly undercounted.

THERE IS ONLY ONE INTERESTING POINT IN THE RASMUSSEN POLL -- In a poll which grossly oversampled Republicans and far-right-leaning "Independents" (as confirmed by the startling Bush approval rating anomaly), 62% of this biased right-leaning group wants a candidate other than Perry.

imo it's all about getting those registered democratic non-voters to the polls!

people around here seem to think there's no hope (with crud like this around, gee i wonder why)

there is hope!

Everyone knows who "Governor Goodhair" Perry, Carole "Grandma Fournames" Rylander Keaton Strayhorn, and Kinky Friedman are. No one knows who Chris is except hardcore political people, we need some advertising to change that. Perhaps we need to brainstorm a way to get some free publicity for Chris?

I only got a bumper sticker because my daughter was at the convention w/ the Tarrant County Young Dems.

He has been talking to Dem groups, but that hasn't seemed to get any publicity outside of those groups. With the Delay departure speech I thought I would see something in the press about Chris' connection , but: nada.

I posted here before about his lack of a campaign. He doesn't seem to have a press presence.

from one of our members of Oil Patch Democrats (who BTW had an overflow caucus in Ft.Worth)


"A new Rasmussen poll out today has people wailing about Chris Bell
slipping to fourth and Kinky rising to second, but buried in the
analysis is this statement, "In a state (Texas) whose voters tend to
trust Republicans more than Democrats on major issues-with the single
exception, in the current poll, of energy policy..."

Can we get some of our candidates to recognize this strength and run
with it in a meaningful way? Mr. Fourth Place doesn't even mention
energy in the list of issues on his website."


The writer is an industry forensic expert and like all members of OPD stands ready to offer our candidates any background information they may need to make policy decisions, answer questions and help to find holes in their opponents' policies.

We have study groups of professionals on every facet of energy, who are available. If any of you are working for a candidate who may want to key into this resource, pm me.

I hate to admit that in satire it seems to nail some of the campaign's ills right on:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D_8PLcEbOTs

I despise it and I don't agree with it. I've seen Bell speak too many times and he doesn't come across like that. He's funny and articulate. I don't know why we are spreading that thing around. It's total crap.

and he's wonderful in small groups and one-on-one.

Butt...

That speech he gave last Friday night was the weakest effort I have ever seen from him. All the packaged catch-phrases, and this time they were delivered with a smirk. And then the rest of the statewide candidates joined him onstage at the end, and he looked like he was ready to exit stage right.

He's busily running away from everyone else on the ticket when he needs every Democratic vote he can get. Every single one.

And a smirk. Where the hell did that come from?

Nobody has been more supportive of Chris and his candidacy than me. I'm among the people who vigorously defended him when the Gammageites slandered him here and elsewhere (and nearly got tombstoned for doing so).

Fact of the matter is that his consultants have him hog-tied. He has got to let loose and start speaking from the heart again, like he did during the primary season. He seems to be a better candidate when he realizes he's got to fight.

Yo, Chris: You got a fight on your hands. And time's getting short.

so much as just saying I hate that youtube thing. I wish it would go away. I didn't think his convention speech was the best I've heard from him, but it wasn't awful. He was GREAT at the pro-choice caucus when he popped in to say a few things. I heard he was the same way at some other caucuses.

I'm seeing too much negative noise on the internet on Chris for my tastes. I think it just breeds more discontent and gives his opponents more cause for glee.

This discussion -- that the campaign seems still to be searching for its footing, that even allies are questioning the strength and commitment of the candidate's fortitude -- is one best had now rather than later.

He greets me warmly every time he sees me. He was warm and engaging -- "I need your help to win this race" -- at the Consumer Caucus, which had fewer than twenty people (which is exactly how he is, and can be all the time).

I just don't seem to be able to penetrate the invisible membrane of groupthink that his handlers have immersed him in. He's got to change some of what he's doing or else he's going to lose a very winnable race, and he's going to do so in embarrassing fashion.

It pains me greatly to post this online.

...a campaign message of "we only need 38% of the vote to win," is not a winning message. It conveys low expectations and low energy level. The Washington consultant who published the number-crunching analysis that generated such a message did not do us any good. The bad thing is, that very consultant is now guiding TDP strategy from behind the scenes and.....so it goes.

Anybody who wants to rally around such a concessionary, defeatist theme song, go ahead. But as for me, I'm planning on carrying the fight to the enemy and winning this state back. Anybody wants to join in a campaign of high expectations and winners' attitudes, welcome aboard!

David Van Os
The Next Attorney General of Texas

When we do take back Texas and make it into a state where ordinary people can live decent lives, it will be because we fought for it, not because we aimed to take temporary advantage of some mathematical fluke.

between a candidate with momentum and one without.

If Chris Bell wises up and decides to stand with David (and Hank, and Maria Luisa and VaLinda and Fred) then he will be the better off for it, as will they all.

Let's hope somebody who has Bell's ear reads DU (and heeds the warnings).

is faced with this unusual circumstance where people who have contributed to Democrats' campaigns in the past have helped finance Strayhorn's ballot drive despite the fact that Strayhorn

1. is anti-choice,
2. is in favor of the homophobic opposition to equal rights with regard to civil unions,
3. is Texas' most rabid corporatist who advocates corporate deregulation in all matter environmental, financial, and ethical,
4. is the Republican partisan who cast the tie breaking vote in favor of adopting DeLay's criminal gerrymandering scheme,
5. is for complicating the CHIPs registration process to cut public spending on children's health care,
6. is blatantly discriminatory toward the progressive Universalist Unitarian church, and
7. is identified with a thousand other right-wing, anti-populist causes and candidates.

How do these contributors invariably explain their donations to Strayhorn? They say "I worry that no Democrat will get over 50% against Perry."

I can imagine that it is difficult for the Bell campaign to resist the temptation to scream: "we only need 38% to win" which is not even as much of the vote as Kerry, Gore, Kirk, Sanchez, Van Os, and a host of other great Democrats won in '04 and '02 so if we can get as many votes as most statewide Democratic candidates have won in the past we can have a Democratic governor.

Is that an inspiring message? No. But I can certainly understand why the Bell campaign would be tempted to make that argument.

I'm passing it on to all my deluded relatives..
I'm amazed at all my Kinky inclined deluded friends.. I hope they all wake up soon!
Many were this crazy about shrub jr. the first time around..deja vu..

Here's the blog: http://anyonebutc4n3p.blogspot.com/

Loved your convention speech. Keep up the energy level, it contagious.

did a reality TV show based on Kinky's campaign, and Kinky even gets kid glove "features" (not "news") coverage when he breaks the open container law or bullies a school teacher over the school's no tobacco policy.

To get media attention, Strayhorn either has to give the media a vicious sound bite or she has to misuse her public office to take a pot shot at Perry. Bell has so far resisted the temptation to hurl nasty sound bites to win that type of media attention, but the media won't cover him unless he gives them those "guess what Chris Bell said" type of quips. Yet Kinky gets 24-7 coverage without ever having to address the specifics of his campaign (example: Q "Would you favor adding new restrictions {to Texas abortion laws}?" Kinky: "I have mixed feelings on parental notification. On the counseling requirement, I'm not sure").

In light of this onslaught of free coddling media coverage, why isn't Kinky doing better in the polls?

The latest Rasmussen poll done on May 17th lacks creditability for several reasons:

The sample number was only 500 people, with a margin of error of 4.5 %, meaning the actual results on their standard could still have Chris Bell in second place.

Rasmussen claims Bell’s name recognition is 74%, which is more than double what it was last month. So how exactly was Chris Bell able to introduce himself to more than 10 million people during the last session without any significant statewide TV, radio or other medium? This figure provided by Rasmussen is wrong, and falsely suggests that people know about Chris Bell, but aren’t supporting him. Other numbers strongly disagree with this.

Rasmussen excluded undecided voters from the poll. If you answered “undecided,” then you were skipped and not included as one of the 500 respondents. Other polls done on the Texas state election have as much as 65 % of the electorate as don’t know/ undecided.

The biggest gainer in this poll was Kinky Friedman at 20 %. This is twice as much as Kinky garnered in any other of the half dozen polls done in this race. Furthermore, this is the lowest total Bell has ever shown in any poll. All of the bipartisan polls done in the last three months have Chris in second place.

According to the people who answered Rasmussen's poll, "Texan voters are more likely than voters elsewhere to approve the job that former Governor George W. Bush is doing as President; 54% approve, 36% Strongly Approve." This overstates George Bush’s actual support in Texas, further indicating that the participants in the poll were leaning right more than average.

Rasmussen is a republican pollster that has consistently favored republican candidates in its polls.

and welcome to DU

polling if he had all of Kinky's free media (a reality TV show on CMT, a pair of puff pieces on 60 Minutes, etc.). The real question is how come Kinky isn't doing better with all that free publicity?