West Virginia just may decide the next Presidential election

Shouldn't be much of a surprise to you, since you did it last time.
Here's a link to my analysis of the electoral votes for the upcoming election. I think it's pretty obvious that WV can decide the entire election. What do you think? How is WV going to vote in November?


http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=1341436

WV used to be a Democratic stronghold. IIRC, I think WV had gone democratic for almost 50 years before helping put Reagan in office in 1984. And, like you said, we contributed to the misery in 2000.

Personally, I am seeing the reddening of WV. And here's my take why:

1) Population age. WV has one of the oldest population ratios in the US. I don't want to cast aspersions about older folks, but I think the older folks tend to vote more conservatively. Not necessarily Republican, but more conservative.

2) Gun control. Being a largely rural state, appreciation for hunting and shooting is paramount. In 2000, the GOP successfully portrayed Al Gore's stance on gun control as one that would lead from registration to eventual seizure of all weapons. I have seen this firsthand, even folks my age say that registration will ALWAYS equal the government taking all the guns.

3) The "Brain Drain" WV is a lovely state. Full of natural beauty and historic wonder. Unfortunately, where WV is resplendent in beauty, it is not in jobs. Stats have shown that many kids who graduate from HS and college tend to move on to other, more lucrative locales. Those left behind are either less-educated and/or uninformed, or are extremely rich and benefiting from the current political system.

I realize I am painting with a broad brush, but I wanted to generally address the behaviors I'm seeing. Now I realize that some younger folks are sticking around trying to save the natural resources and trying to make our state more progressive, but if the above three reasons are not addressed, WV will always be a swing, if not a full-on red state.

Hope this makes sense.

i think bush has the fundie vote locked up here and will carry the state again

he does. If Kerry can make the case that Bush's policies have hurt working families (and a kindergartener could) then the Union vote may turn the tide for Kerry. OTOH, the fundies are pretty numerous round here.

Bush's fault! That's right, It's ALL that SL?T from West Virginia's fault and the people of West Virginia's fault! Several DUers have told me so! So I figure what the Hell, I may as well just waste my vote too! Maybe by the time Bush gets through with another four year term people will know who to blame!

EDIT} Come on Ralph we'll save that spotted owl and let everything else take care of it's self! :toast:

Yeah, that thread got me pretty steamed. But its just driving me to be the Über West Virginian from Hell, and I wish you'd join me. They don't think that WV can produce anything but inbred racists? Lets show 'em different!

And they NEVER disappoint me! Some still put Ego over country! The democrat's worst enemy is infighting! They lose sight of the prize and are distracted by single issues! We MUST focus on GW Bush, but they don't get it! All they think about is their one or two pet issues! We beat Bush first and then work out the details later, or we lose!

I get distracted too, but then I think, there is no way to get what I myself want without FIRST beating Bush in November! We stick together or we lose and the Repigs and trolls know that! That is why you get the flame baits! I knew what was up, but I got pissed at the old guard DUers who attacked WV! I tried to go with the flow but I got mad as hell when the dorks just kept it up! I'll admit there are some here I do not like! The first one to slam Wv on that thread us is one of them! A Miami fan, need I say more!

I'll stay just to be a burr under their blankets! Hell who knows, I might even do some good! I post on another Dem board too sometimes! it's an offshoot of the old DNC board! Here is the link:

http://www.demsonline.net

Some nice folks there, I've known them for almost 4 years!