New poll shows Democrat leading McCain in W.Va.

October 10, 2008

A new poll shows Barack Obama ahead of John McCain in the presidential race in West Virginia, the first time in the campaign that the Democrat has had the lead in the Mountain State.

The poll, conducted by American Research Group, showed Obama with a 50 to 42 percent lead over McCain. Three percent said they would vote for someone else, and 5 percent were undecided.

According to the poll, 76 percent of Democrats said they would vote for Obama, and 79 percent of Republicans said they would vote for McCain. Half of the independents polled said they would vote for Obama; 38 percent said they would choose McCain.

The poll was conducted Oct. 4-8, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 points.

Within hours of its release, some national political and polling analysts expressed skepticism about the ARG poll. Nate Silver of the Web site fivethirtyeight.com said he was "very, very skeptical" of the poll, and Taegan Goddard of politicalwire.com called the result "especially odd."

http://www.wvgazette.com/News/200810090749

Not long ago, it was considered political gospel: Be wary of polls when an election involves an African American candidate, because many whites will voice support but then vote for the white opponent.

Now, poll-watchers are asking whether that could be skewing the numbers as Democrat Barack Obama, the first African American presidential nominee, moves ahead of Republican John McCain.

Most experts say they do not believe that the phenomenon, known as the "Bradley effect," is at work in this election. But some disagree. And if the effect has disappeared, it is not clear whether that is because polling techniques have improved or because the country has become more tolerant about race.

"The Bradley effect may have been an artifact of the country 20 years ago, but I don't think it's a factor now," said Republican pollster Neil Newhouse. "Polling has gotten better, but I think, more importantly, the country has changed."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/11/AR2008101102136.html