WisPolitics Poll: State has gotten off on the wrong track

WisPolitics.com: Independent voters could provide opening for GOP Assembly candidates, UW Dept. of Political Science/WisPolitics.com poll finds
6/16/2008

--Herb Kohl Remains Most Popular Statewide Elected Official--

CONTACT: UW Political Scientist Ken Goldstein at 608-263-2390, Charles Franklin at 608-263-2022.

MADISON (June 15, 2008) -- A new UW Dept. of Political Science-WisPolitics.com poll shows a tough environment for Wisconsin Republicans this campaign year, but it also suggests GOP legislative candidates could find traction with independents because of high ``wrong track'' numbers and economic anxiety.

More than half of the likely voters responding to the poll said the state had gotten off on the wrong track. And 32 percent said ``improving the state's economy and protecting jobs'' should be the top priority of Democratic Gov. Jim Doyle and the currently split Legislature, besting the 18 percent who said ``holding the line on taxes and government spending.''

The poll also finds that Democratic U.S. Sen. Herb Kohl remains the state's most popular statewide elected official and that freshman Republican Attorney General J.B. Van Hollen, still largely unknown by the electorate, has higher favorables than unfavorables despite a spate of negative stories over the past few months.

The tough GOP political environment is part of the reason Dem Party ID is up in the state and part of the reason John McCain is trailing Barack Obama by 13 percentage points among likely voters in the survey, which pollsters say captured a post-Hillary endorsement bounce for the Illinois senator.

And it's part of the reason the overall generic ballot test for Assembly candidates tilts to Dems at the moment.

Asked who'd they vote for if the election for state Assembly in their district were held now, 49 percent of respondents answered the Democratic candidate to 36 percent for the Republican candidate, with 14 percent undecided or refused. Republicans currently control the state Assembly, with Democrats controlling the state Senate.

Those generic Assembly numbers closely mirror the Wisconsin presidential numbers -- 50 percent for Obama, 37 percent for McCain and 13 percent undecided or refused.

The survey of 506 randomly selected probable voters statewide was conducted over the phone by interviewers from June 8- June 10 under the direction of Charles Franklin and Ken Goldstein from the University of Wisconsin Department of Political Science (www.polisci.wisc.edu). It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.

``The poll found that over 90 percent of Democrats and Republicans said they would support their party's candidate for the State Assembly,'' said Franklin.

``Among self-identified independents, however, the Assembly vote was tied at 35 percent for each party, with another 30 percent undecided.

``This tie masks the role of opinion on the direction of the state. Those independents who thought the state was headed in the wrong direction, went for Republican Assembly candidates by a 39 percent to 30 percent margin. Those independents who thought the state was moving in the right direction favored Democratic Assembly candidates by 46 percent to 28 percent.

"More than half of independents (58 percent) think the state is headed in the wrong direction,'' Franklin added. "These findings suggest Republican candidates might exploit this advantage among independents by pressing the argument that the state is not doing well, and blaming Democrats for that poor performance. The very sour view of the national direction, which has been hurting Republicans, may in this case make it easier for Republican candidates to convince independents that the state is also headed in the wrong direction, and gain some support as a result for Republican Assembly candidates."

Kohl, D-Milwaukee, and the owner of the Milwaukee Bucks, scored a favorable rating of 65 percent of those polled, in front of U.S. Sen. Russ Feingold, D-Middleton, at 59 percent and Doyle at 57 percent. Van Hollen, elected in 2006 despite a Democratic tidal wave, had a 23 percent to 15 percent favorable-unfavorable split with 61 percent not giving an opinion, suggesting he can weather the current troubles with a positive campaign for re-election in 2010.

These results are from the first in a series of at least three UW Dept. of Political Science/WisPolitics.com polls this general election season.

WisPolitics.com, based in Madison, Wis. and launched in 2000, is an independent, non-partisan online news service that runs www.wispolitics.com, www.wisbusiness.com, www.wisopinion.com and www.iowapolitics.com

See the initial poll release from June 12:
http://www.wispolitics.com/index.iml?Article=128513

SELECTED QUESTIONS

Now, thinking about things here in the State of Wisconsin, do you think things in Wisconsin are generally going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten off on the wrong track? N = 506 100%
Right direction 221 44%
Wrong track 258 51%
Don't know / Refused 27 5%


If the election for State Assembly in Wisconsin were held today, for whom in your district would you vote? N = 506 100%
Democratic candidate 1 250 49%
Republican candidate 2 182 36%
Undecided 5 63 12%
Refused 6 11 2%


What do you think should be the top priority of the Governor and the State Legislature? N = 506 100%
Making health care and prescription drugs more affordable 42 8%
Holding the line on taxes and government spending 90 18%
Improving the state's economy and protecting jobs 164 32%
Improving education 52 10%
Protecting the environment 12 2%
Fighting violent crime 8 2%
Reforming campaign finance laws 3 1%
Gasoline prices 25 5%
Affordable electricity 4 1%
Other (SPECIFY) 67 13%
Don't know / Refused 39 8%


Jim Doyle
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of... IF FAVORABLE/UNFAVORABLE, ASK: Would that be a STRONGLY or just a SOMEWHAT (FAVORABLE/UNFAVORABLE) impression? N = 506 100%
Strongly favorable 69 14%
Somewhat favorable 218 43%
Somewhat unfavorable 88 17%
Strongly unfavorable 99 20%
Don't know / Refused 32 6%


Russ Feingold
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of ... IF FAVORABLE/UNFAVORABLE, ASK: Would that be a STRONGLY or just a SOMEWHAT (FAVORABLE/UNFAVORABLE) impression? N = 506 100%
Strongly favorable 130 26%
Somewhat favorable 168 33%
Somewhat unfavorable 69 14%
Strongly unfavorable 74 15%
Don't know / Refused 65 13%


Herb Kohl
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of ... IF FAVORABLE/UNFAVORABLE, ASK: Would that be a STRONGLY or just a SOMEWHAT (FAVORABLE/UNFAVORABLE) impression? N = 506 100%
Strongly favorable 128 25%
Somewhat favorable 204 40%
Somewhat unfavorable 67 13%
Strongly unfavorable 53 10%
Don't know / Refused 54 11%


JB Van Hollen
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of ... IF FAVORABLE/UNFAVORABLE, ASK: Would that be a STRONGLY or just a SOMEWHAT (FAVORABLE/UNFAVORABLE) impression? N = 506 100%
Strongly favorable 27 5%
Somewhat favorable 91 18%
Somewhat unfavorable 58 11%
Strongly unfavorable 20 4%
Don't know / Refused 310 61%

http://www.wispolitics.com/index.iml?Article=128802

Edit: I didn't like their headline- things look awfully good for Dems, so I hope we don't blow it! Top Cop Van Hollen isn't doing too well.

I love the line about us being on the wrong track...you don't say? I hope this is right though...I'd love to see Healthy Wisconsin get passed.