Last CPAC/SES poll (Jan 22, 2004)

This one has a lot of information:

Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22
Con 38.3 37.6 33.2
Lib 32.7 27.2 30.4
NDP 13.7 16.3 22.2
BQ 8.5 13.5 9.4
Green 6.7 5.3 4.8
Undec 14.7 11.9 10.9

This is the nightly tracking, with each sample being 400 people, and a margin of error of about 5.4%. With small samples like this, it is dangerous to try to infer too much, but it looks to me like there is some sober second thought going on with regards to the Conservatives. The undecided do not seem to be breaking their way - more for the Liberals and NDP as far as I can see. It also looks like the outcome will hinge on the Liberal-NDP vote splits in various ridings, not surprisingly.

They also show a breakdown of "very likely voters", which shows similar trends to the overall polls, above.

Here is the 3 day average (Jan 20,21,22) by region:

Atla Queb Onta West
Con 29 27 36 47
Lib 44 19 38 26
NDP 22 8 20 21
BQ 0 42 0 0
Green 5 3 6 6
Undec 13 13 14 10

Margin of error is 11% Atlantic, 6.2% Queb, 5.1% Ont, and 5.6% West.

So, it looks like the momentum may have shifted to the Liberals on the east coast and Ontario. Ontario is close though. The Conservative vote in Quebec probably won't translate into seats (I looked at all the riding votes in 2004 and I just don't see them close enough for a breakthrough anywhere there), but it may be that the Liberals could lose some that they have in Quebec now. Even after adjusting for the Alberta factor, the Conservatives look set to do well in the west. I think it may all come to how the west coast votes.

On second thought...

It may make voting Conservative less risky.

Shit!

What a horse race.

One doesn't know how things are being manipulated.

That's what they say about the stock market, anyway.

Or at least a hung parliament?

I see the seat count being close between the major parties, after all is said and done. Maybe I am dead wrong, but that's my hunch.

It's better than an outright win for the CONS.

I think the Con and Lib seat count and popular vote will be quite close. I would put the seat count for both parties between 100 and 120 (zero sum game here, if one is closer to 120 the other will be closer to 100). Each will have a popular vote in the 32-34% range. Same remark applies re the zero sum game.

NDP will be in the high 20's for seats, and high teens for popular vote. BQ will be in the mid 50's for seats.

How's that for famous last words?

Then this poll . The sample is just to small.

So, it won't be long.

:hi:

Please. Let's. Sincerely. Hope. Conservatives. Have. Peaked. :scared:

A Conservative majority

:shrug:

You can get results for the entire east coast right now .

BC's still open for two more hours.

But Newfie forums are discussing them as we speak

...what's to prevent someone from BC from accessing these forums?