These results were great for us...123 seat minority how pitiful!

Harper won't get anything he wants. There will probably won't be a non-confidence motion until the Libs get their act together. By which I mean, they elect a new leader. This will probably come in Aprilish, when instead of holding a policy convention they hold a leadership convention instead. But man, this was way better than I expected.

Expect another election this fall. Hopefully it will coincide with the US election which should see the Dems make a spectacular comeback as well. Let Harper play PM for a while, this is not a conservative nation - the same rules don't apply here as they do in the US. Many people voted for the conservatives and the NDP because they didn't like the stink of the Liberals - but with fresh faces and new ideas we might be back in buisness before you can say "non-confidence motion."

P.S. Isn't it amazing, given all the terrible press the Libs got, they still finished a strong second, behind by only 20 seats. This story's just beginning, it's not over yet...

even with the smear machine working in overdrive, they barely managed a slim 19 seat lead over the liberals. i expect martin will be gone in a matter of months, he's not stupid and knows an obvious housecleaning will be needed and be SEEN to have been done before the nation will hand the reins of power back to the liberals.
i expect harper will be an ineffectual leader, he's got too many balls to juggle now and will have trouble enough keeping his own party in line, never mind the trick of keeping the bloq and the other parties happy enough to pass any real legislation.

as politics go-- at first, I was really bummed when I saw that harper
was ahead but, after reading some of the posts, I'm seeing it may not
be so bad after all!!

Nothing like the devastating elections of 2000/2004 in the States!!

In the US there are fixed elections, meaning whoever wins doesn't face reelection until the next election cycle. In Canada, like in Britain, the right to govern is dependant on what is known as "confidence of parliament." A government - the Prime Minister and his/her Cabinet - must enjoy the confidence of the majority of members in the House of Commons. This is easy when one party wins a majority of seats, since the majority party chooses its leader and other members to form the government; but when there is a minority parliament (when one party wins less than half the number of seats), the party must seek support from other parties. Minority parties historically last less than 2 years, with some lasting less than one year.

There are a couple of different ways to bring down a government:

1) If a party fails to pass any type of money bill. Since the primary function of government is to ensure the funding of government itself, the failure to do so would automatically trigger an election, since the government would be seen as having "lost the confidence of the House."

2) A direct no-confidence motion. This is actually what brought down the Liberals in the Fall.

3) If a Prime Minister states that an issue is so important that failure to pass it would constitute a "vote of no confidence."

The latter point is up to the disgression of the Prime Minister. But the first two are binding. A government must pass a budget every year, and requires a majority of members to vote for it. And a vote of no confidence is pretty much self explanatory, if a government doesn't have the confidence of the House it can not govern.

As for Harper's "victory." He won 123 seats. Which is nothing. A majority in the Canadian parliament is 155 seats. Which means he has to convince at least 32 members of opposing party members to support him on any given issue if he expects to get anything passed.

The other parties are as follows:

1) The Liberal Party (the Conservative's main opponents): they won 103 seats.

2) The Bloc Quebecois (left wing, separatist party): they won 50 seats.

3) The New Democratic Party (socially left wing/Labour party): they won 31 seats.

4) 1 independant, and one seat unaccounted for (out west) but will go either Liberal or NDP.

If the Conservatives had won even 140-145 seats, they might be in a strong position - even with a minority - since they would only have to convince a dozen or so other members. But having won on 123 seats, they have to convince at least 32 to 33 (assuming the Speaker will be conservative and can not vote unless there is a tie).

So as you can see, the Conservatives are screwed. I expect there to be another election within the year.

P.S. It's typically easier for Liberals to manage minority parliaments since they usually go "left" and get the support of the NDP. This is what Martin did with Gay Marriage and the like. But for Conservatives it's tougher since there isn't any other "right-wing" party which may prop them up. No Conservative minority has lasted longer than a year.

How much nicer it is that, within the Canadian government, the elected
officials really have to stay on their toes!!

How rigid and hopeless things are in the States, by comparison. :(

I appreciate your insight-- thanks again

:hi:

I'm glad my poli sci degree finally came in handy.

with a minority, and especially the weak minority Harper got, he can't push anything on us unless there is support from enough of the other parties that it will pass...