New Guardian/ICM poll: Tories gain ground on Labour

Labour's opinion poll lead has been cut to only three points in the last month as the Tory pre-election campaign gains momentum, according to the results of this month's Guardian/ICM opinion poll published today.

With the expected date of the general election only 72 days away the poll results will alarm Labour election strategists who fear Conservatives could use the intensive "phoney war" campaigning to close the gap between the parties.

Tony Blair effectively launched Labour's campaign a fortnight ago with his helicopter tour, the six pledges and the party's spring conference. He even attempted to bypass the Westminster media with a special meet-the-voters day courtesy of Channel Five.

But despite all this effort the ICM survey, which puts Labour on 37%, shows the government's lead over the Conservatives is down four points in the last month and has fallen from nine to only three points since December.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/Politics/election/story/0,15803,1419833,00.html

Okay guys. "The Tories are hopeless," "How big will Labour's big majority be?" "Let's vote Lib Dem/Respect/Green/Flat Earth Party to give Bliar a scare." ... well, looks like all bets are off. And the worrying thing is that the change is straight Labour to Tory - no Lib Dem gain at all.

I am second to none in my loathing of Bliar, particularly with respect to the Iraq War. But this Old Lefty is no way going to "Punish" Blair by letting in the Party of the Night, moving the political discourse even further to the right and formally annexing the UK to NeoCondom.

The Skin

I don't see much difference between Bliar or Howard - but I'm voting anti-war and I urge others to do the same. That way, even if one of them does win, they'll be in a hugely weakened position.

the Tories have no chance of displacing Blair anyway. If Blair returns with a greatly reduced majority maybe he won't be as bad as he has been in this parliamentary term. 180 seat majorities are bad news, no matter who is in power.

using the model at Electoral Calculus, unless Labour's vote drops significantly below the Tories. Put the parties all getting 30%, and you still end up with Labour 327, Con 198, Lib Dem 90.

Labour are going to be the largest party in the next parliament, unless they're exposed as (British) baby-eaters (I think they'd get away with Iraqi ones ...). There is now way the Tories can get more than them.

to have any chance. And it ain't gonna happen...

On edit: if we calculate around the 37-34-21 (L-C-LD) of this poll, and keep the Lib Dem vote where it is, we get (using electoralcalculus.co.uk):

34-37-21 is the least the Tories need to hang the parliament. That's a 3 point swing from Labour to them

30-41-21 is the least the Tories need for an outright majority. That is a 7 point swing to them from Labour.

Frankly, I don't find the second option credible, and I would positively cheer a hung parliament...

Thanks for the link.

The riding map is pretty amusing: the Tory-held ones define quite exactly the rural and suburban areas of Angle and Saxon settlement and rule, whereas Labour represent most of the rural and suburban areas settled and ruled by Danes and Scots. The difference is evidently the cities going to Labour.

A hung parliament would be the best possible outcome, assuming a Lib Dem/Labour coalition government is outcome. Blair would have to yield to Brown.

which means Blair by default. I can't see Howard ending up as PM.

... and I hope you guys are right.

But what worries me, as I said in my original post, is that - thus far - the anti-Labour vote does not appear to be going to the LibDems or minor parties but directly to the Tories.

Add to this the possible stay-at-home vote and ya got trouble.

The Skin

I think it's going to take something drastic (read: unrealistic) for the Tories to actually take Labour's majority away.

Although, I still haven't decided who I'm voting for yet (it's between Labour, LibDems and Green).

from power then they would already

a) Enjoy a comfortable lead in the polls
b) Be winning seats from Labour in by-elections

Since neither of these criteria is satisfied then I think they are highly unlikely to defeat Blair's government. If you look at the voting trends from the last round of council elections the Tories were successful in winning back sections of their core vote. Unfortunately, their biggest gains were in areas where they already had sitting MPs. In the key marginal areas, the major cities, Scotland and Wales the picture was far less rosy. Increasing Boris Johnsons existing majority in Henley may make the Tory party faithful feel good but on its own will not win them a General Election.

On edit - If by chance the Tories were to win the election Blair has left his successor a ticking time bomb in the form of the Scottish and Welsh Parliaments. It would be interesting to see what would happen if Howard tried to force through unpopular legislation on Labour dominated assemblies. You might even see the beginnings of a break up of the United Kingdom.

I think the labour support has understandably slipped into the not going to bother catergory after the war, but these people would never go with the tories. I think what we're seeing is a result of the two week political vacuum labour have left for howard to fill with anti-immigration and tax cut promises that appeal to the greedy and the fearful (basically the conservative base). I'm dissapointed The lib dems haven't gone toe to toe with the tories over this period as it would not only have pushed them ahead but also for the first time allowed a real debate about their credibility as an alternative opposition.

I'll be voting Liberal Democrat as I normally do (in the absence of an old labour party) despite a few misgivings. I would not be horribly dissapointed with another Labour term if it is the only alternative to the nasties.

On aside note, I wish we could have a real debate in this country abour proportional representation. I'd be happy for the racists and ultra rights to have thier seats (after all we're supposed to be a democracy) alongside the increased LD and green power.

If PR were implemented, it would spell the end for ridiculously huge Parliamentary majorities.

.. especially as the FT poll this week suggested that the Tories were gained on the LibDems as much as they were from the Bliarites.

The Skin

Either way I hope I'm not forced into voting Labour in 2 months time.

I think you are being spun into it.