How long do you think it wil last? - Democratic Underground

BooScout

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Tue May-11-10 01:58 PM
Original message

How long do you think it wil last?

The Lib Dem / Tory love fest.....I'm thinking less than a year....if that.

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non sociopath skin

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Tue May-11-10 02:03 PM
Response to Original message

1. Personally, I need to get a better feel for what's actually happening ...

Edited on Tue May-11-10 02:05 PM by non sociopath skin

... before I'd even try to guess that.

But the ball is in Cameron's court on winning an election. And the LibDems won't want one for a long, long time, especially if the Tory's backtrack on electoral reform. Glegg is fcked in the North and Scotland for the foreseeable future, so Cameron will be watching for his star being in the highest ascendancy in the South of England ...

The Skin

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Anarcho-Socialist

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Tue May-11-10 04:39 PM
Response to Reply #1

3. Newcastle City Council will likely go Labour next time

I agree with you and think it will crush the Lib Dems in north east. Redcar won't like the fact that its newly-elected Lib Dem MP is involved in a Tory-led government.

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fedsron2us

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Tue May-11-10 04:39 PM
Response to Reply #1

4. Rumours suggest that at least 6 ministerial seats for the Lib Dems

Edited on Tue May-11-10 04:40 PM by fedsron2us

That is certainly not going to make Tory MPs happy, especially if they hoped for a seat at the top table.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/election_2010/8675265.stm

I think Cameron may have some problems with his own party before this is all over.

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Anarcho-Socialist

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Tue May-11-10 04:42 PM
Response to Reply #4

5. not least over Yerp

If the fringe starts demanding referenda on the issue of "Yerp" it will take much discipline to keep them in line.

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FunkyLeprechaun

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Wed May-12-10 01:20 AM
Response to Reply #4

11. If you look at Michael Gove

He told the BBC that was willing to give up cabinet seats in the agreement with the LibDems. I don't know about making them happy, but they were willing to compromise on ministerial seats.

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fedsron2us

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Tue May-11-10 04:22 PM
Response to Original message

2. Until the 2011 County Council Elections at the latest

Edited on Tue May-11-10 04:41 PM by fedsron2us

When they happen any coalition is going to come under great strain as Conservative and Liberal Democrat Councillors try to cut each others throats all over Southern England. Believe me there is no love lost between the two parties at local government level where I live.

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FunkyLeprechaun

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Wed May-12-10 01:25 AM
Response to Reply #2

12. I live near Birmingham

Where the city council has a Tory/LibDem coalition which works, but the BBC had interviewed people on the square who said that it works here but weren't sure if it'd work on a national level.

It may or may not be all doom and gloom.

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dipsydoodle

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Wed May-12-10 04:52 AM
Response to Reply #2

15. On local elections

this was Watford's result :
Liberal Democrat - 26 seats
Conservative - 4 seats
Labour - 4 seats
Green - 3 seats

Not much throat cutting to do here. I think the result for the Lib Dems was enhanced by the antics of Claire Ward, now ex MP Labour, on the expenses issue - cheeky cow.

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tjwmason

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Wed May-12-10 04:54 AM
Response to Reply #2

16. They despise each other.

It's the same here, the LibDems are the main/only opposition party locally and the activists of both parties are never happier than when at each others throats.

Once the giddiness of being in power subsides there will definitely be tensions. The LibDems do not have a particularly disciplined parliamentary party; and the right-wing fringe of the Tories were only content to let Cameron play as they thought it would give them an election victory.

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mr blur

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Tue May-11-10 05:40 PM
Response to Original message

6. Couple of years, at the most

Though probably less than that.

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EmilyKent

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Tue May-11-10 05:47 PM
Response to Original message

7. A full term, by agreement.

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Hopeless Romantic

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Wed May-12-10 01:15 AM
Response to Reply #7

10. yes, smart of Clegg to tie them to that

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Rosa Luxemburg

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Tue May-11-10 09:40 PM
Response to Original message

8. Cameron won't last

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PM Martin

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Tue May-11-10 11:08 PM
Response to Reply #8

9. What makes you say that Cameron won't get a full term?

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LeftishBrit

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Wed May-12-10 02:37 AM
Response to Reply #9

13. He's caught between a rock and a hard place.

He'll be pressed by the LibDems on the one side; by his mostly more right wing party colleagues on the other side; and that's just within his own governing coalition - he will also be dealing with a large and resentful opposition. And I don't think that he's clever or effective enough to deal with such a situation long-term. And that's even if the world economic situation doesn't get significantly worse.

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T_i_B

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Wed May-12-10 02:37 AM
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14. One issue to watch out for...

...is whether or not legislation gets passed for fixed term parliaments. There's a very good case to be made for that but what happens if it the coalition goes tits-up in the middle of a fixed term parliament?

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Hopeless Romantic

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Wed May-12-10 08:34 AM
Response to Original message

17. Teatime next Tuesday

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muriel_volestrangler

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Wed May-12-10 09:45 AM
Response to Original message

18. At least a year

Things will be OK until at least the annual conferences in the autumn. If either party's dissenting wing gets some traction at one of those, it may tempt/force those in government to start disagreeing on things, which might come to a head by Budget time. As someone says above, perhaps the 2011 elections would prove to be a turning point.

But I think they might survive beyond that. It depends on either how badly the economy does, or how bad the public spending cuts become.

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