Northern Ireland: UUP could be wiped out

They've lost one seat to the DUP (Paisley's party) by a huge amount; another to the SDLP since the Unionist vote split itself; of the others they hold, the BBC thinks Trimble has lost his seat; Lagan Valley, which they won in 2001, is probably lost because the MP defected to the DUP, and the votes could go with him. BBC thinks they'll keep just one seat - North Down. That would leave 1 UUP MP to 8 DUP MPs.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/vote2005/html/region_6.stm

Maybe there's going to be some progress after all.

DOH! Nevermind, I had DUP confused with SDLP. I feel like an idiot!

The SDLP is the moderate party advocating a united Ireland - there's no problem with them winning a seat at the expense of the UUP (the moderate Unionist party). But the DUP is Paisley's "Nevvah Suhrrendah!" idiots - losing 3 seats to them is a lurch towards extremism (it seemed likely after the last Northern Ireland Assembly results, but I didn't realise how bad it would be).

When it comes to Northern Ireland, I don't just not know the answer, I don't know the question either.

The sight and sound of Paisley Snr. & his brethren bursting into an impromptu revivalist meeting at the count was just a little too Good Ol' Boy for this Good Ol' Agnostic Lad.

If there is a God, he has his work cut out over there ...

The Skin

of positive things are happening on the ground. And while the DUP sound pretty belligerent, they are in fact quite keen to get the assembly up and running again.

On the one hand it's just like rest of the world. Are the people less pleasent or more fearful and the answer is No. They behave pretty much like anybody else.

The surreal part is passing by a policestation and your first thought is that it is a prison, but it's not. And the policecars are tanks. And the motorway doesn't have soundbarriers, but it is a peacebarrier since it divides one part of Belfast from the other side and they might as well use it put a motorway there to stop people crossing to the other side.

I remember a barbecue and suddenly the real problems were shown. The owner wanted to play a tape because he just got it in the mail (it turned out to be a Christian band) and his wife responded with a fury. "Are you totally deranged? Opening an unknown package without knowing what's inside" and she went on and on, furious and scared at the same time.

The country side is pretty though.

Funny, I am still drinking my coffee from the Carrickfergus Castle Coffee Mug. It's right in front of me. The castle where it all started, isn't that ironic.

if Labour/Tories/Lib Dem stood in Norn Iron.

How would it affect the nationalist/unionist split?

in a few seats but did very badly. The main UK parties would basically get no votes, as they have no history there and are seen, even by dyed in the wool unionists, as irrelevant.

They do have proxy parties though... with Lab = SDLP, Tories = Ulster Unionist, and Lib Dem = Alliance.

There were several left-wing folk in N.I. who were also unionists - they wanted to join the Labour Party but were told that you cannot join Labour whilst living in N.I., and that they should affiliate with the S.D.L.P. (with which they, as unionists, were not overly impressed).

Also, I remember back when I.D.S. was running the show, David Trimble was mentioned by somebody as a potential Tory leader nationally. What is now the U.U.P. only stopped being part of the Tories when Heath brought in direct rule - remember that they're still the Conservative and Unionist Party.

who are non-sectarian, so that probably wouldn't make any difference. I'd have thought that UUP voters might vote Conservative, but it seems there are less and less of them anyway. For all I hate the Tories, they're not as extreme as Paisley - so I think the DUP supporters would stay with the DUP. Perhaps a few UUP voters would vote Labour, as well as some SDLP. But I doubt they could win a seat.

and is very bad for NI.

with a lot of help from the Alliance and SDLP parties.

Actually that is one positive I would take from these results- that there is an increasing openness to voting across the divide and I think this does bode well for future

edited to add afterthought.

From the BBC Online
Dated Friday May 6 19:16 GMT (12:16 pm PDT)

UUP leader loses Upper Bann seat

The Ulster Unionist leader and former Northern Ireland first minister, David Trimble, has lost his Upper Bann seat.

David Simpson, DUP, beat Mr Timble by 5,000 votes. It is the fifth seat loss for the UUP and comes amid speculation Mr Trimble will soon resign as leader.

With only two of the 18 seats left to declare, the DUP are celebrating an election victory. They have taken nine seats so far and the UUP have one.

Mark Durkan has won Foyle for the SDLP - a seat held by John Hume since 1983.

Read more.

It looks like UUP voters switched to keep SF out.

the Ulster Unionists did some tactical voting. The amount of tactical voting going on will become clearer when we get the council results.

I like Mitchell McLaughlin, he is seen as a dove in Republican circles, but I think it is better for the bigger picture that Durkan got in. This and the North Down result strengthen what is left of the moderate centre.

It will be interesting to see who the next leader of the Ulster Unionists will be. It has always been a Westminster MP, but now there is only Lady Silvia.... and she is .... a Woman!!!